Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 110535
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1135 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Latest radar shows scattered light showers across much of our
region, with some isolated heavier showers developing just west of
our counties with a few rumbles of thunder.  The heavier
convection is developing just ahead of our approaching cold front.
This convection, along with the impressive wind fields at the
surface and aloft, has led SPC to include most of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky in a marginal
risk for late this afternoon into very early this evening. We
will continue to see winds gust to around 40 kts for the next few
hours, with speeds tapering off by early this evening from
northwest to southeast. We will continue the wind advisory through
00z Wednesday.

Models show the front extending along the Wabash River into
southeast Missouri by 00z Wednesday, then move it just southeast
of the PAH forecast area by around 06z Wednesday. Showers/any
storms will be along and ahead of the front, so precipitation will
also be tapering off from northwest to southeast during the
evening. Most, if not all, of our area should be rain free after
midnight, with just a few lingering showers possible in our far
southeast counties.

ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement lifting the front back north
Wednesday morning. Shower activity will quickly spread back north
Wednesday morning and persist into the afternoon and night time
hours as the front will extend from the Great Lakes region into
southwest Missouri through much of that time period. The better
chances by Wednesday night will be across our northern counties
due to the closer proximity to the front.

The front moves back south on Thursday, and shower chances will
increase. Models indicate an increase in instability, and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across our entire region. The best
chances will be across southeast half of our area by Thursday
afternoon with the front draped just north of the Ohio River.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild through the near term,
even tonight when most of our area will be north of the front.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 30s north to the upper 40s
south. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower to middle 60s as the
front heads back north. Breezy south winds Wednesday night will
keep us very warm with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs
Thursday will be in the upper 50s north to the upper 60s
southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

For Thursday night through Friday night, we will utilize a 00z/12z
blend of the EC and the 12z NAM for near surface thermal profiles,
for our freezing rain forecast. The GFS is warmer and CMC seems way
too cold. We like the NAM/EC blend and a slightly colder solution
given the strength of the surface high pushing shallow cold air into
the area, something the models routinely struggle with. In fact the
12z EC is a tad colder with the 32F line by 12z Friday not too far
north of Paducah.

Will have a brief chance of thunder Thursday evening, with the
surface front already to our south. Best precip chances Thursday
night will be across the southern 1/2 of the area, then shifting
north on Friday, when the concern for freezing rain will be on the
increase. We continue to focus north of a Van Buren Missouri,
Harrisburg Illinois, Evansville Indiana line. But the forecast will
continue to require adjustments as the models try and grasp how far
south the shallow cold air will make it. We cannot rule out greater
than 1/4" ice accumulations across the northern part of the area
based on QPF projections. Impacts will be possible. It`s too soon to
say what kind. Just a stayed tuned kind of thing at this point. We
will warm above freezing Friday evening with freezing rain ending.

After that, the focus will be on the upper system over the southwest
U.S. and how much rain activity there will be prior to that systems
arrival by early next week. Given the models are tending toward a
stronger intermediate ridge from the SE U.S. extending NW into
Plains, we may not have as much in the way of persistent rain
chances (lower PoPs, not as much QPF). Trended the forecast that
direction. Having said that, it will remain unsettled. This down
tick in PoPs should be later in the weekend, with PoPs picking back
up early next week. Again, week long QPF totals of 1.5 to say 3
inches locally should be drawn out over several days. So significant
or flash type flooding not much of a concern. Mainly standing water
in low lying areas. Maybe some rises in creeks and streams.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Biggest issue overnight will come with the possibility of some
dense fog over SE MO/far western KY/far southern IL. Vsbys could
be quite variable in coverage and duration, up and down. After
12-14Z...another MVFR stratus deck could work in from south to
north. Light winds overnight will pick up for the south again by
late AM Wed...gusting over 20 KTS at times.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ084>086-
     088>094.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for KYZ001>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN



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