Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 162048
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 134 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

Confidence in increasing that there will be a fairly significant
snow event along the Ohio River and back into extreme southeast
Missouri. 12z GFS, in particular has honed in on a precip max
along that axis for several runs now, and thermal profiles suggest
that axis will likely correspond to where the initial snow/mix line
will set up early this evening. Expecting very close to .40 inches
liquid QPF, so will increase snow projections into the 3-5 inch
range. Have already upgraded to warning headlines along the Ohio
River for tonight. See no need for further adjustments at this
time. Still looking for all snow northwest of the warning area,
but QPF will likely not be quite as high. Will need to monitor
though, because have already heard of at least one report of 3.5
inches out to our west in the SGF CWA. Will stick with the
advisory in our nw half for the time being. Still lots of
uncertainties concerning precip type and the timing of the
transition from rain/sleet over to snow, most likely around
or after the midnight time frame far southeast locations. Believe
there will still be enough moisture left after the transition
over to snow later tonight for an inch or so to accumulate before
the precip comes to an end around dawn Monday. Thus, will
continue with the Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of the CWA
surrounding the warning area.

Next big story lies with the bitterly cold Arctic air that will
follow early in the week. Blustery winds gusting over 20 mph on
Monday may cause some blowing or drifting of any snow that is on
the ground and hold daytime temps nearly steady in the 20s. Will
then challenge record low temps Monday night as reading fall down
into the 10 to 15 degree range. Wind chill values could be near
zero by the time many awake and head out on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 134 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

To be issued shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 518 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

Conditions will deteriorate this afternoon and evening with a
rain/sleet/snow mix expected to transition to snow. Winds will be
light through 06z tonight, then pick up from the west to northwest
8-15 kts after that. Cigs with precipitation tonight could fall into
the IFR category, with at least MVFR vsbys likely. For much of the
day to start, cigs should be VFR 3-6k/ft with a gradual lowering
later today.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     FOR ILZ087-089>094.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Monday FOR ILZ075>078-080>086-088.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     FOR MOZ110>112-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>109.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     FOR INZ085>088.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Monday FOR INZ081-082.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     FOR KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Monday FOR KYZ001-002-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-020>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST






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