Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 252024
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A mid/upper high will continue to linger over the PAH forecast
area through mid week, with minimal coverage of diurnally-driven
showers and tstms. Although the lower trop is soupy, there are no
real triggers for convection in place today or Tue. However, on
Wed, as mid level shrtwv energy begins to impinge on the dominant
mid/upper high, and a sfc cold front approaches from the north,
there may be an increase in coverage of shower and tstm activity
for roughly the nrn third of the region. Scattered convective
activity may linger there into Wed night.

Sfc winds, though light, should remain predominantly out of the
east or ne through the short term period. This may help to limit
sfc dewpoints through Wed (the lower/mid 70s are still forecast). A
heat advisory will be continued through Tue afternoon, but not
extended at this time. However, the heat indices will probably
flirt with 100 on Wed in the wrn half of the region where there
may be less sunshine. Highs across the region are expected to be
slightly cooler than those on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Forecast confidence in the long term is relatively low due to
continued model disagreement.

The long term starts off with a stationary front lying NW-SE across
our CWA. The presence of the boundary combined with weak upper
support may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the northeast two thirds of our CWA. With the loss of daytime
heating/instability, models are showing Thursday night to be dry.

On Friday the aforementioned stationary front will be undergoing
frontolysis (washing out), but combined with a little more upper
support there could be showers and thunderstorms over roughly the
same part of the CWA as Thursday.

Beyond Friday is where model solutions really begin to diverge.
Therefore rather than an exhaustive discussion of the differences
between models for each 12 hour period, will keep the discussion for
the remainder of the long term rather brief. Forecast is a blend of
the CRH init, the GFS, and the ECMWF with heavy leaning toward the
ECMWF.

Friday night precipitation chances may make their way NW-SE
across the CWA with the approach of a slow moving frontal system.
Long story short, probability of precipitation steadily increases
area wide with the approach and ultimate passage of the front on
Sunday. Wrap around precipitation on the back side of this system
is a possibility Sunday night and Monday, especially the northeast
tow thirds of our CWA.

Temperatures through the period will generally top out in the mid
80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Unfortunately, dew
points will also remain in the upper 60s to around 70, so relative
humidities will keep things a bit sticky here in the lower Ohio
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

With surface high pressure in control through the entire 18Z TAF
period, winds will be light and variable. A few cu are possible
today, and some thin cirrus will continue to stream over much of
the region. There is some chance of fog development again late
tonight at all TAF sites. Some LIFR vsbys are possible at KCGI/KPAH,
but confidence is not high whether they will occur or not.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB





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