Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 121733
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Models in good agreement in the short term. Sfc high pressure will
be the dominant weather feature today through the weekend as it
builds slowly east from the Plains into the lower Great Lakes and
upper Ohio Valley. Will need to contend with plenty of
clouds and possibly some drizzle today as flow aloft remains wswly
ahead of an advancing short wave that will pass well north of
the region tonight. The clouds and north winds today will help to
hold afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70, about 10
degrees or so above AM lows this morning. The aforementioned short
wave should serve to scour clouds/moisture out of the region as it
exits the Great Lakes region Saturday. Still will have north winds
though, so will remain well below normal despite the return to
sunshine Sat afternoon. Chilliest night will likely come Saturday
night with clear and calm conditions. Most locations will drop
well into the 40s. As the high shifts a bit farther east Sunday,
will see the beginning of a modest warm up. Should see a good 30
degree warm up from AM lows Sunday into the 70s. Very pleasant
afternoons can be expected this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Medium confidence in the extended weather.

Models continue to flip flop early next week. Yesterday the ECMWF
was placing qpf over the area Monday while the GFS remained mainly
dry. The 00z Fri runs indicate the opposite with ECMWF indicating
mainly dry and the GFS indicating wet. More importantly they both
have pushed the best timing back a day...favoring a Tuesday time
frame. In addition depending on which model you believe the flow
near the surface stays north or east. The GFS only briefly brings in
a southerly component to the wind. Do not like to have pops in the
fcst with these wind directions even though its mainly low levels
only. The zonal flow does turn nw aloft but would like to see a
stronger signal before putting rain in the forecast.

On a more positive note feel comfortable retaining the below normal
temperatures for the upcoming week with only minor tweaks there.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Still fighting IFR ceilings with some MVFR drizzle/fog at KPAH. As
a storm system approaches from the west, would not be surprised to
see this continue through the afternoon and into the evening. For
now will keep it in via a TEMPO group for a few hours and then
lift to MVFR ceilings. Elsewhere, MVFR ceilings should be the
rule this afternoon, and might even see levels above 2kft at KOWB
and KEVV.

Most of the morning guidance takes ceilings down to at least IFR
levels tonight, as the storm system moves through the area, so
went for it at all sites. There will be a very rapid clearing
trend at all sites Saturday morning in the wake of the storm
system. North winds will continue near 10kts through the period.
Some gusts into the teens are possible Saturday, as stronger
mixing occurs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS





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