000
FXUS63 KPAH 130835
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

MAIN STORY IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL COME WITH THE RAPID WARM UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH TIME...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
FINALLY TAKE OVER. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MEAGER
TODAY...BUT SHOULD REALLY CRANK UP TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE 80S BY THAT TIME FRAME. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE RATHER WARM AND HUMID AS THE 500 MB MEAN
RIDGE POSITION WILL BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PENETRATE THE BROAD
RIDGE...WHICH WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS /JUST BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY/ AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP SHOULD MAKE THIS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE KEPT 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW GFS
MOS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
KEEPS A COLD FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COLD FRONT MAKING IT TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...WILL FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS AS
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
GFS MOS.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SINCE OUR
REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
SOME AREAS. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 CELSIUS ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF MOS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...APPROACHING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOT OF CONVECTION...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF
VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC /FORMERLY
HPC/...HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
PRIOR TO SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION SUNDAY...WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 80S DESPITE
850 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     110>112-114.

IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MEFFERT