Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 061828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

Decaying convective outflows may allow an isolated storm this
evening, but we`ll introduce chances mainly late tonight as the
front drops southward through the Wabash valley. Monday sees this
boundary lay out in a quasi stationary fashion across the lower
Ohio valley, while additional upper level energy is incoming late
Monday into Monday night. The combo of moisture/instability/lift
is best for MCS development along this boundary across central MO-
central Il late Monday night-early Tuesday, and as it shifts
southward during the day Tuesday, throughout the Quad State. We`ll
bump pops up markedly, thru the high chance to likely cats, by
then. This will also be our best chance time for stronger or
potentially severe storms, Tue-early Tue night, as the best upper
level support is offered then. Fropa by late Tue night effectively
shuts off pops then, as we move into the mid week period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

The convective influence with the channeled vorticity rotating
around the 70/50h closed low in the southeastern Ontario province
(southwest of Hudson Bay) reaches its apex during the early evening
on Tuesday.

The latest deterministic late period short range and early period
medium range guidance suggest a stronger influx of cold air
advection in place with the closed low and surface cold front. The
00z and 06z runs hinted at this possibility and it was reflected in
the morning forecast issuance. Given the continuity of model
solutions, went ahead and kept more of the convective potential
pushed south of the forecast area on Wednesday night and beyond.

Although the upper low remain in the vicinity of Hudson Bay in
Canada into Thursday, the combination decent cold air advection and
high pressure developing aloft, the chances for precipitation
remains relatively nil through Friday night, with the possible
exception of the Southeast Missouri foot hills.

The upstream ridging west of the closed low in Canada eventually
dislodges the closed low late Thursday night. There is some slight
timing issues for the next shortwave riding down the northern limb
of the Central Plains/Southeast U.S. ridge axis Friday and Saturday.

The combination of the shortwave and the return of southerly flow
late Thursday will aid in the development of another, but brief
round of convection late Friday night into Saturday. Given the trend
for the slower evolution of systems through the area, the main
convective chances may shifted more toward the daytime hours on
Saturday.

With the stronger focus to expanding the high pressure across the
area, went with lower dewpoints/max-min temperatures, than
previously suggested at this time.  To reflect this change, decided
to keep a slightly drier and colder solution in place with respect
to temperatures and dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

Scattered low VFR cu bases may occasionally have a scattered to
broken mid or high level deck, i.e. mainly a convective debris
cloud overspread. Storm chances pick up late tonight into tmrw,
but should still be low enough to preclude from terminals at this
writing.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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