Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 130237

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
837 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Issued at 837 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Snow finally departing the Pennyrile region of west KY. We
increased cloud cover most areas for the overnight hours
especially east of the Ozark Foothills. Added flurries as returns
are showing up now and moving south across southern IL and up to
the north and northwest into KLSX and KILX`s CWFA`s. Winter Storm
Warning will expire at 9 p.m.


UPDATE Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Aviation update.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

The Winter Storm has panned out nicely/as forecast. The cold air
was faster/harder, so the change-over was faster and the sleet
amounts a little more/the fzra amounts a little less...with a net
sum effect the same. Snowfall is coming in on target, maybe a
littler higher in some spots across the Pennyrile of western Ky
extending into the Jackson Purchase, but again, net effect about
same. Will continue Warning headline Paducah/eastward, but
realistically, it`ll be ending within the next hour or two here,
and that continues eastward while the 00z-03z frame still looks
good for expiration there.

After that, cold air tonight, with some wind, and even colder air
tmrw night, though less wind, will produce wind chills early
Saturday morning and early Sunday morning around/either side of
Zero. Will highlight that on HWO. Small snow chances from the
blend late Sunday-Sunday night were accepted with no
arguments/little expected impact.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

On Monday, a clipper system has been persistently forecast by the
medium range models to swing around the south side of a
positively tilted mid level trof in the Great Lakes region. There
should be enough moisture convergence and lift for measurable
pcpn in the PAH forecast area, mainly near the associated surface
cold front. The highest PoPs will be across southern IL and
southwestern IN, mainly during the daylight hours. Most of the
pcpn across the region is expected to be snow, however there will
probably be a brief interval of rain or a wintry mix near the
AR/TN state lines, as temps manage to climb into the upper half of
the 30s. All this will be accompanied by blustery winds turning
to the northwest in the afternoon. At this time, the best snowfall
amounts are forecasted in the Evansville Tri-State region (up to
2.5 inches), tapering off to nearly nothing west of Lake
Wappapello in southeastern MO.

The following dense arctic airmass will be very cold, bringing
single digits and even zero for lows, and teens/lower 20s for highs
by midweek. This will be made more likely by the existence of
snow/sleet on the ground in most of the region, and a mid level trof
axis swinging through the region.

As the flow aloft transitions to a more zonal pattern later in the
week, the forecast is currently dry and warmer, though there have
been some model variations from run to run. Low level winds should
be out of the southwest by then.


Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Back edge of snow extended from Mount Carmel IL, to Murray KY. It
will continue east through 03z. Where the snow persists, look for
mainly IFR conditions to persist. Behind the snow, generally MVFR
cig conditions, then clear along and west of a KFAM to KPOF line.
Expect the lingering MVFR cigs behind the snow to make little
eastward progress through the evening based on satellite trends.
Otherwise where snow ends, will transition to similar MVFR cig
conditions. Gusty NNW winds will persist, 15 to 30+ kts. The winds
should diminish through the night into Saturday. Sustained winds
will still range from 8 to 12 kts from the NNW.




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