Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211251 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
751 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Continue to see scattered showers and storms across the region but
much of the activity over the CWA has diminished over the past few
hours. Recent development over FSD CWA seems to be related to the
low level jet.

Much like a couple days ago, the main stories today will be the high
heat and the threat for severe storms for eastern areas. Concerning
the heat, it appears the heat advisory is still in good shape so no
changes were made to that as heat indices are still expected to
exceed 100 degrees in the advised area. For this afternoon, strong
instability will develop over eastern portions of the area ahead of
the approaching frontal boundary. Deep layer shear will also be
sufficient to support strong to severe storms for the eastern CWA.
There is low confidence in areal coverage of storms, as well as
initiation within our CWA as it appears a large area from the
eastern Dakotas into western MN are all game. Could even have a few
storms back into central SD due to very strong surface heating ahead
of the front.

On Saturday, drier and more stable air will enter the region as
northwest winds begin to increase. Concern will switch to fire
weather as RH values drop into the upper teens and lower 20s over
central SD. The trend over the past couple days has been to increase
winds above SuperBlend for Saturday afternoon, which may put at
least north central SD into critical fire danger worthy of a
headline. Further south things appear more marginal. Will let day
shift consider the need for a fire weather watch as neighbors to the
north have already done so. Although, winds may be a bit stronger
further north in the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Latest models are in fair agreement with the overall flow pattern.
That mid level flow pattern should feature a continuation of a
southern/southwestern ridge, with various s/ws tracking across the
Northern Plains/southern Canada. The period should start off dry
with sfc high having just moved across the region. However, by early
to mid week, another boundary will slide south into the region, with
a renewed chance of convection, especially the Tuesday through
Wednesday time frame. Temperatures will probably average out right
around normal for the time period as mid level heights and temps
remain fairly stout.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 750 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the day but with more storms
possible late this afternoon and evening. Some of those storms may
prove severe.


SD...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ this evening for SDZ016>018-033>037-045-048-051.



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