Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 291138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ABR
AND ATY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO OVER 45 KNOTS WITH THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...PIR AND MBG WILL ALSO HAVE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS MOVING OVER
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






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