Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 192046
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
LATE.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AMID A SUNNY SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

TONIGHT -> WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT WILL BE GIVING WAY
TO HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. TRACKING A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SWRN UNITED STATES...WHICH ARE
SUPPOSED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA...SEEMS SOME PRELIMINARY ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
GET GOING OUT WEST BY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CAM
SOLUTIONS STILL HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS CRANK BACK UP TO 1.50 INCHES OR
MORE...SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT -> THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CHASING IT OUT OF THE CWA RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY. THE
CWA SITS BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY...BUT BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE REGION BRINGS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER
TROF ROTATES OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...A S/W
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING IN THE FCST. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE COOLING TO A BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE ON CHANCES OF PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN TIMING OF EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BE MOVING THRU THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...A COOLER AIRMASS
WILL TAKE HOLD THAT WILL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME CU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EAST SO
INCLUDED A SCT DECK AT ABR AND ATY THRU THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME DURING THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDED VCTS AT PIR AND MBG BEGINNING WED MORNING AS SOME OVERNIGHT
OR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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