Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162059
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
259 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE
through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by
daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. The 500mb trough
over the western states will be slowly taking its place by mid day
Friday, as a deep sfc low over Albert crosses into central
Manitoba. Still, dry weather will remain over our region.

Record highs for Friday range from the mid 50s to mid 50s, with most
of them are again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to tie
the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast to be
3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued to use
available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and  snow depth
data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the
deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding data
may also be reached over the next several days.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The weekend will be dominated by warmth and dry conditions. High
pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low
level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the
northern Rockies. This is less than favorable mixing conditions,
however 850/925mb temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations above
climo, with a peak temperature of +10 to +14C at 850mb Sunday. End
result is that we may see widespread upper 50s/low 60s Sunday.
Sunday night, the surface gradient continues to increase with about
10mb across the state, not to mention increasing cloud cover and
1/2km winds of 30-40kts. This will keep temperatures from falling
very much overnight - with the potential for lows only in the 40s!

Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially,
and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm
us up into the 50s/60s - and blended guidance is just a few degrees
off records. Consensus for the surface low track is shifting towards
western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota. The track favors
more showery precipitation and with a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE will
keep in mention of thunder.

Cold advection overnight will actually keep us mixed and mild Monday
night, and by Tuesday we are back into a warm advection regime with
decent mixing as a low tracks across northern North Dakota.
850/925mb temperatures remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo
through the end of the forecast timeframe.

The previous shift has also brought to our attention to a system
just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show good
consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of
changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe so will only just
mention the potential for a storm to track across the region late
next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR ceilings and vis are expected to remain through the period for
all locations but ATY. ATY has MVFR fog this morning, and could
get another bout tomorrow morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...KF



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