Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 311149 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
649 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Precipitation chances today, and fire weather on Thursday will be
the forecast concerns.

As of 8Z, a narrow line of convection has developed on the nose
of a weak LLJ and mid level moisture advection. These storms
should continue drifting southward through the morning hours and
mainly impact locations between the James River and Highway 83. As
the LLJ weakens later the morning, convection should dissipate as
well. The rest of the short term portion of the forecast will be
dry. On Thursday the region will be sandwiched between a high
pressure to the east and a low pressure to the west. This region
will see a fairly tight pressure gradient with strong southerly
winds expected. With the winds and a dry airmass over the region,
fire weather will be a concern along and west of the Missouri
River on Thursday. Stronger winds are expected across most of the
CWA on Friday with sustained winds of 30 mph possible. ESRL`s
Extreme Percentile indicates winds on Friday will range between
the 90-95th percentile. While the winds will be strong, increasing
LLM should limit fire weather concerns on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Southwest flow aloft with transient shortwave activity will dominate
the extended as a broad upper trough shifts east from the Pac NW to
the Rockies. Coupled with persistent sfc low pressure, this pattern
will bring cooling temperatures and showers and thunderstorms
through the extended period. Temperatures will fall well below
average by Tuesday, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

A line of thunderstorms continues to develop south between KABR
and KMBG. So far, all lightning has avoided KABR, but cannot rule
out a TS at some point this morning. As high pressure moves south
out of Canada by 18z, showers and thunderstorms will taper off.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites except in heavier rain
from thunderstorms.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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