Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 282014
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a very distinct shortwave
tracking across western SD/Nebraska. This feature has been
responsible for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of
western and central South Dakota this afternoon. Shower activity is
expected to continue across the western CWA through tonight as well.
Very little in the way of instability, so only anticipating general
run of the mill type of activity.

The broadbrushed non-severe low POP forecast continues through
Friday and Saturday due to a parade of weak shortwaves passing
through a northwest flow aloft. Really hard to pinpoint the timing
and areal coverage of precip and mainly stuck with blended model
solutions in the forecast. As for temperatures, trended toward
cooler guidance due to anticipated cloud cover over the next couple
of days. Regardless, still depicting a gradual warming trend from
70s and 80s Friday to 80 and 90s this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

The period begins with an upper level ridge building into the region
with some WAA thunderstorms possible Sunday morning. After clearing
skies Sunday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms should redevelop
Sunday night as a fairly strong shortwave crosses southern Canada.
While both the GFS and ECMWF bring this shortwave across the region,
they differ on the strength of 700 mb temps and the southern
extent of pcpcn. Based on the latest model guidance, locations
along the ND/SD border will have the best potential of seeing
storms. The upper level ridge will remain over the region with
above normal temperatures likely through Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, models are showing a strong shortwave crossing the
region with storms possible Wednesday night with much cooler
temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

An area of high pressure over the region will bring mostly light
and variable winds through the valid TAF period. An upper level
disturbance crossing the region this afternoon will bring cloudy
skies with low end VFR cigs possible. Cigs should become
prevailing VFR later this evening.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD



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