Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
234 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

It was yet another day with low stratus clouds and fog. Off and on
visibility restrictions of a mile or less have been stuck mainly
east of a line from ABR to HON. A small area of drizzle located
northeast of the ABR radar at 20Z will continue it`s southeastern
track. Little to no accumulation is anticipated. With plenty of low
clouds lingering, expect fog to remain across the Sisseton Hills
area into tonight. Another area of mainly patchy fog may develop to
our west, and sneak into the MO River Valley. The sfc ridge across
our area, extending from WY and eastern MT, will remain in place
through Monday morning. This will by while the main area of high
pressure shifts across eastern NE/KS. This ridge focusing more over
our eastern counties should help scour out at least some of the
lower clouds and fog over our east. Will see waa snow starting
across north central SD Monday afternoon. Snow accumulations should
be less than 1/2 and inch through the end of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

An active early part of the forecast is taking shape. A decent
system will move out of the southwest conus and across the central
plains Tuesday through Wednesday. It still appears that the best
chance for heavy snow will be over about the southern half of the
state. This is the area where trowal formation and jet energy aloft
suggests the highest UVM/Moisture combination. The ECMWF and to a
smaller degree the CMC continue to highlight this area, where as
the deterministic GFS continues to be on the north end of the 3
solutions. GEFS probabilities of greater than 0.25 inches of QPF
seems to agree more with the ECMWF and suggests an I90 axis of
heaviest QPF/snow on Tuesday into Tuesday night. I`m not quite
reaching warning criteria with my snow amounts, but after discussion
with adjacent offices, and still some concern about confidence in
the track of the system, did feel it was prudent to issue a watch
with the afternoon package for the sc counties. Also, did beef up
winds a bit for Tuesday and thus kept some blsn in the grids.

Once this system moves on, the rest of the period looks pretty
tranquil as the long wave pattern undergoes major amplification,
featuring a developing west coast mid level ridge, and downstream
central/eastern conus trof. Temperatures should favor near normal
early in the period, but then transition back toward above normal by
next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

While PIR has been enjoying a clear sky since 20Z yesterday
afternoon, the stratus deck is quickly closing in from the north,
with ceilings under 1K feet. As a result, expect LIFR to IFR
ceilings/vis at most sites through the period. Temporary MVFR
conditions will be possible, especially at PIR initially. Winds
hovering near 10kts this afternoon will diminish to around 5kts
tonight. Expecting some improvement tomorrow by around flight
category by late morning.


SD...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
     night for SDZ033>037-045-048-051.



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