000
FXUS63 KABR 161740 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER JONES COUNTY. THIS
LOW PRESSURE HAS LIMITED AVAILABLE LLM TO WORK WITH AS MOST
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF LLM...THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WITH A DEVELOPMENT
OF A MESOSCALE PCPN BAND TODAY...HAVE IGNORED THE POORER GRID
RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ALSO
IGNORED THE NAM WHICH HAS PCPN TOO FAR NORTH.

HAVE RELIED UPON THE GEM REGIONAL AND HI-RES ARW ENSEMBLE MODEL
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM
MILLER TO MILBANK TODAY. WITH A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING 4+ INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS OKAY. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING
MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS AND FAULK...BUT WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS DRY BEYOND TODAYS
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE MODELS ALL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND INSTABILITY...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL/FLAT
RIDGING OVER OUR REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN US. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OUT WEST
MOVES EAST AFFECTING OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UNDER THIS PACIFIC FLOW...THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE HAD SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA
BY TUESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING QUICKLY EAST
TODAY INTO MINNESOTA. AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT
KATY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW AT KATY. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS-SPINK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-
     HAND-MARSHALL.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN