000
FXUS63 KABR 290248 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
848 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME REPORTS FAR EAST IN THE AREA OF VERY LIGHT FZDZ/DZ/MIST WITH NO
ICING YET. SOME TEMPERATURES STILL AT 32 DEGREES OR HIGHER YET
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO FALL ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FZDZ CONTINUING TONIGHT. ORTONVILLE OBS WAS ALSO
REPORTING -RA THIS EVENING. ALSO...SOME WEAK ECHOES ON AREA RADARS
AND DID NOT HAVE ANYTHING HERE AT ABR AS THEY WENT OVER. THE WINDS
SHOULD FALL OFF OUT WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LET THE WIND
ADVISORY OUT WEST EXPIRE OR CANCEL IT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND STRENGTH OF WINDS TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS A LOW END PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LEOLA TO HAYTI.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA TO ALMOST 60 DEGREES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT IS APPX TWO-THIRDS OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA RIGHT NOW...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP STEAM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO AN IFR/MVFR LAYER OF STRATUS SCREAMING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THIS CWA.

TONIGHT...AS A SUBTLE NW FLOW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...IT MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INDUCE A FEW HOURS OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE CWA /SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
ACTIVATE ICE/. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE CENTERS ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA WHERE MODELS PROG THE
DEEPEST LAYER OF SATURATED/NEAR SATURATED STRATUS CLOUDS TO BE
OVERNIGHT. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED NOW...INCLUDING SOME SPOTTY
0.01 INCH OF ICE ACCUM IN THE ICE ACCUM GRIDS. ALSO...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO NE/IA/MN...SO COLLABORATED AN EXTENSION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY OVER TO THE SODAK/MN BORDER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. THE PRESSURE TENDENCY PROG SHOWS
INCREASING VALUES OF RISING PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. THAT AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OFF THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY NOT DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THESE STRONGER
MIXED LAYER WINDS TO TRANSLATE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY -> FRIDAY NIGHT...FOR THE TIME BEING THESE FORECAST
PERIODS ARE DRY...WITH COLD AIR KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER
TO CLIMO NORMAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA TRIES TO
RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE CWA FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE TABLE FOR A MULTIPLE
DAY-LONG PERIOD OF COLD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE FLOW ALOFT THOUGH THE
EXTENDED...WHILE ARCTIC AIR WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND DICTATE CONDITIONS THOUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...DESPITE THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SITUATED
MAINLY TO THE EAST. MODELS FEATURE A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
SATURDAY...THANKS TO POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF A JET EXIT
REGION. WITH ARCTIC AIR DROPPING IN UNDERNEATH THE
CLIPPER...PROFILES SHOW A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A FEW
HOURS. A 1040MB HIGH MOVES IN SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL MOVE OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND THEY COULD
SCATTER OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH GOOD CAA/MIXING...EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL THEN FALL OFF QUITE
A BIT INTO THURSDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-
     HAMLIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-FAULK-HAND-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN