000
FXUS63 KABR 251730
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1130 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THINGS
BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHEST ACCUMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERTOWN REGION WHERE ANOTHER INCH IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS POURING INTO
THE REGION. ADJUSTED GRIDS/FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED LIGHT
SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY
THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA DRY AT THIS TIME. MODELS SUGGEST
THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROBABLY ALREADY OCCURRED. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY WRING OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A DISTINCT WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT
OF SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA...SO ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL AID IN SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
IN...ALTHOUGH DID CUT BACK ON SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION BASED
OFF OF THE CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND UNOFFICIAL SNOW
MEASUREMENTS AT THE ABR WFO. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH...SO PERHAPS THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIFTING OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS....BUT NOT EXPECTING SNOW
TO BE LOFTED INTO THE AIR...SO NO MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW AT THIS
TIME. SOMETHING THAT CAN BE ADDED IF IT BECOMES AN ISSUES HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND
THEN NEXT CONCERN WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN RIGHT IN THE 10 MPH RANGE. THE
COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF TWENTY
BELOW TO THIRTY BELOW ZERO. DID NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS HAVE OTHER
HEADLINES IN PLACE AND SO WANTED TO WAIT. PLENTY OF TIME TO
ISSUE...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HOIST THE HEADLINE. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...HOWEVER
WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WE LOOK TO TAKE A BREAK FROM THE ARCTIC AIR DURING THE LONG TERM
WITH MORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS AROUND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MILDER AIR. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING
IN FOR SUNDAY. THIS AIR MAY MAKE SUNDAY A LITTLE COOLER. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THEN PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY GET BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THIS FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY IMPROVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW-PRODUCING STRATUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND HEADING IN THIS DIRECTION. SNOW AT
KABR AND KMBG HAS ENDED...AND SHOULD BE ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AT KATY. THERE MAY STILL BE A COUPLE OF FLURRIES AROUND
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THAT SHOULD NOT PREVENT THE
OVERALL PREVAILING FLY WX CONDITION FROM BEING VFR AT THESE THREE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS SNOWING AT KPIR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SNOWING THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE TO VFR BY APPX 00Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN