Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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448
FXUS63 KABR 301135 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
535 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Wrap around moisture will remain with us for the next few days
despite low pressure slowly filling and lifting to the northeast.
Profiles suggest P-Type will continue to be snow today, however a
quick trip outside indicates a mix of light snow and sprinkles.
Thats in line with Bufkit profile trends of slowly drying out the
dendritic growth zone, with a rather thick saturation layer below
8kft. Thankfully not much lift in that layer, and ceilings are
between 1 and 3kft - so any additional precipitation will be light
and some evaporation can be expected before moisture reaches the
surface. Continued to mention Snow or Freezing Rain for portions of
the Coteau tonight, however again intensity will be too low and it
appears ground temperatures too warm for it to be a
significant problem, though will have to monitor.

With clouds stuck in place and limited thermal advection -
temperatures will see minimal movement with highs in the 30s and
lows in the 20s/teens.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Will see a fairly progressive upper level pattern during the
extended period, with a shortwave trough tracking across the region
Friday night through Sunday, followed by weak ridging Sunday night
and Monday before another trough moves through Monday night and
Tuesday.

At the surface, high pressure will be over the area when the period
begins, then gets pushed east by an approaching trough. This trough
looks to move through mostly dry on Saturday, followed by weak
ridging on Sunday before a stronger low pressure system approaches
early next week. The models differ on the track of this system, with
the GFS taking it across North Dakota and the ECMWF and GEM taking
it a bit further south across South Dakota. Therefore, will stick
fairly close to the Superblend which keeps slight chance pops
across much of the CWA Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures will be around or slightly above normal Saturday
through Monday, with highs in the 30s. Will then see the beginnings
of a cold spell arrive on Tuesday, with highs in the mid teens to
mid 20s. Overnight lows in the upper teens and 20s Friday night
through Sunday night will give way to the cooler air, with lows
mainly in the teens Monday night and in the single digits Tuesday
night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

IFR/MVFR cigs will linger over the area through today and tonight.
Periods of light snow are still possible throughout the day, but
should begin to taper off this evening and tonight. Vsbys may
briefly fall into the MVFR category with the snow. Gusty northwest
winds across the western portion of the CWA will taper off this
evening.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003-015-033-045-048.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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