Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251544 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1044 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

With sunny skies and south winds, temperatures are well on their
way to the upper 80s to the mid 90s this afternoon. Current
forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Nothing but clear skies and light winds early this morning across
the area as surface high pressure is in place. As the day
progresses, this high will push off to the southeast and allow for
southerly winds and warm air advection to move back in. Winds will
become breezy over central SD this afternoon. Dewpoints do not look
to become overly high and should generally remain in the 50s to low
60s. So, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, do not expect there
to be issues with heat indices. Increased highs a couple degrees
from previous forecast based on the mixing expected today and the
overall drier air mass.

Main issue in the short term centers around precip chances. Will be
watching upper level impulses move eastward across the Dakotas
within westerly flow aloft. At the surface, a trough will be located
over the western Dakotas this afternoon and will be a focus for
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is then expected to move
into central SD by this evening as the low level jet begins to
strengthen. Scattered showers and storms are possible through the
overnight as well given the low level jet existence and presence of
mid level instability.

Will continue chances for showers and storms Tuesday into Wednesday
as surface boundary looks to get hung up over the region. As weak
impulses aloft move east through the region within an increasingly
humid air mass, will be setting the stage for episodes of showers
and thunderstorms through the period. Hard to pinpoint exact timing
and placement, so a general broadbrush approach to POPs was used.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Northwest flow aloft with embedded shortwaves and weak sfc low
pressure will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
Friday. An upper ridge begins to build in on Saturday helping to
bump temps back up to near average, in the mid 80s to lower 90s over
the weekend. The ridge will also stop up the shortwave feed keeping
the weekend drier until, possibly, Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is the
possibility of some showers and thunderstorms overnight. However,
models have slowed down progression of the low and there is no
agreement on timing or placement of precip. Therefore, decided
confidence was too low to add a mention to tafs at this time.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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