Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 160522 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

The current forecast for tonight looks good overall. The only
change was to increase sky cover with a weak shortwave moving in
from the west. While radar is beginning to show weak echoes in the
Pierre area, the lower levels of the atmosphere is far too dry for
pcpn.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

A 997mb low currently located just to the northeast of Lake Winnipeg
has combined with deep mixing into the dry lower levels to produce
another day of gusty westerly winds (20-30 mph) across northern SD.
Meanwhile, partly to mostly sunny skies have allow temperatures to
rise into the lower 80s across the area. These warm and generally
dry conditions should remain through the end of the work week.

The surface and upper low to the north of us in Canada will shift to
the east tonight and Friday, keeping the area under west-northwest
flow aloft. Overall, not a whole lot of things to hang a hat on in
the short term for significant changes to the forecast. There does
appear to be a couple weak shortwaves that slide through the area
with associated mid-level moisture. With steep lapse-rates tied to
the moisture, wouldn`t be surprised to see some sprinkles to this
evening near or SW of Pierre and then across the rest of the area
overnight (associated with broad but weak 700-500mb Q-Vector
convergence). Since there is an abundance of dry air below 10kft,
will hold off on mentioning precip and just go with a mostly cloudy
sky spreading across the area. Expect continued mostly cloudy
conditions into Friday, with a second surge of increased moisture
and q-vector convergence sliding through during the afternoon hours.
Highs on Friday will remain above normal and in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be sliding into the region
Friday night as one of the many 500mb shortwave troughs slides in
from the Pacific Northwest in what is otherwise a mainly zonal west
to east flow.  The sfc features are

At this point, the highest precipitation amounts will likely
concentrate over eastern SD and west central MN. A couple of
locations with over 0.25 inches will be possible, especially in any
thunderstorms. Will need to monitor for the potential of stronger
storms/wind Saturday afternoon as winds/shear increase and inverted-
V soundings shown with NAM DCAPE values of over 1200j/kg over and E
of ABR-HON). Will not include in the mention of stronger storms yet,
as there is still plenty of uncertainty.

The digging trough will slide across MN Saturday night as a high
builds across the southwestern states. Northwesterly flow will then
linger through at least Tuesday night as the 500mb high remains over
the southwestern states. For us this will mean dry weather and highs
in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

VFR conditions can be expected through the valid TAF period. Upper
level disturbances crossing the region will bring mid-high clouds
and scattered sprinkles.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TDK



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