Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291956
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Weak shortwaves crossing the region through Saturday will bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Dakotas. With
limited MU-Cape values, believe lightning and brief periods of heavy
rain will be the main threats.

As a strong 500 mb low pressure moves into the Pac NW, weak upper
level ridging and WAA will develop over the Northern Plains. With a
weak LLJ and WAA, elevated convection will be possible Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Additional storms are possible Sunday
night into Monday morning as the 500 mb low pressure passes across
southern Canada. While severe weather looks possible, the strength
of cap remains a bit in question. As of now, locations along and
north of Highway 212 will have the best potential of seeing strong
to severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Monday into Monday night, models agree fairly well in showing low
pressure moving through the region. They just differ a bit on
details and timing, with the EC dropping the front/low pressure
trough through a bit more quickly compared to the GFS and GEM.
Regardless, it appears thunderstorm chances are legit for Monday
into Monday night and did not stray much from what Superblend gave
for POPs. Models then show a cold front passage Tuesday night into
Wednesday time frame, bringing another chance for precipitation.
Overall, temperatures look to be warm/hot through the period,
especially early on with a very warm air mass in place ahead of the
mid-week frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF forecast period. Will
be watching showers and thunderstorms across the area today, and
have included VCSH mention at both KMBG and KABR for the time
being as northern SD is anticipating more coverage. Expecting
this activity to dissipate after the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT


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