Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 291519 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1019 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Beginning to see some clearing across the western portion of the
CWA. Expect to see high clouds continue to stream over the east
into the afternoon. No changes made to winds or temperatures at
this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Just a few patches of light rain remaining across central/south
central SD early this morning as the main area of low pressure is
well south of the region. Plenty of mid and high level cloud cover
across the CWA, but over the next few hours trends could be towards
clearing skies over the northwest CWA. Have therefore added some
patchy fog to the forecast for the early morning hours in that area.
Elsewhere, the trend for today should be for lessening cloud cover
over the area. Highs will rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s for
most locations, with a southeast breeze.

Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the short term
period with highs generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees both
Thursday and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The period opens with an upper trough dipping down into the Dakotas.
However, this trough is still in the northern stream of the jet,
while most of the energy remains in the southern stream. This means
that while there may be some showers associated with enhanced
shortwave activity, moisture availability under a sfc high is quite
minimal so any precip will be very light Friday night. The remainder
of the weekend is looking dry. Models are converging on a more
northerly southern jet Monday through Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS vertically stack a low and move it across the Plains. The
ECMWF remains a tad farther south with both the sfc and upper lows,
but still moves precip into the region. The GFS has shifted the low
farther north and would bring more rain to northern SD.

Temperatures will be above average for the period with highs
potentially approaching 70 over the weekend and into Monday.
Superblend maintains more conservative warmest highs in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through this evening.
MVFR stratus may affect KATY early Thursday morning.




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