Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 101005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
405 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 404 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Broad lift is spreading across western and southern SD with moderate
warm air advection pattern having begun. Large area of light to
moderate snow has developed over the past several hours and
continues to move east, just having recently moved into the
southwest CWA. Have adjusted wx/POP grids a bit to account for this.
Models are showing minor changes with this weekend`s system, with
the 00Z EC interestingly showing an enhancement in forcing/snow
accums along the Hwy 12 corridor of northeast SD. Still expecting a
general 1 to 5 inches across the CWA, ranging from the low end
amounts near the Missouri River, to the high end totals across
northeast/east central SD into west central MN. It would still
appear that the bulk of today`s activity will be across the southern
half of SD into the southern fringes of the CWA. Will have to await
round two for tonight when upper level shortwave energy and upper
jet support move into the area. This is when additional development
of light to moderate snow will occur over a larger portion of the
region. Most of the activity looks to be out of here by Sunday

Will then be watching the frontal passage on Monday which will be
the next surge of arctic air moving in. Increased winds a bit on
Monday above that of SuperBlend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Arctic high pressure at the surface and an upper low nudging down
from Canada will combine to bring very cold temps to the region at
the start of the extended. Little relief is expected by the end of
the period as another, reinforcing shot of cold air plunges H85
temps into the -20s Celsius. At the surface, highs will be in the
single digits with lows of -5 to -15 through the week.

The first half of the extended will be dry. On Friday, energy will
be ejected out of an upper trough and may bring some snow to the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Generally looking at VFR cigs overnight, except for areas along
the Missouri River where IFR/MVFR cigs are possible. Cigs will
fall to IFR/MVFR everywhere on Saturday as a low pressure system
moves in. Vsbys will be VFR through the night, then look for them
to fall to MVFR levels during the day Saturday as an area of snow
tracks from west to east across the area.




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