000
FXUS63 KABR 071627 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM HAVING MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RISE...MAYBE 3 TO 6
DEGREES AT MOST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST...WITH A BAND OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. IN FACT...THIS
BAND MARCHED THE ENTIRE WAY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT DROPPING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. MORE ENHANCED ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN
CWA CURRENTLY AND HAVE BEEN THERE FOR SOME TIME NOW. OBS ACROSS
THE AREA RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES...GIVE OR TAKE. GIVEN THE FACT
THAT ITS DARK...ROADS WILL FREEZE EASIER. ALSO HAVE I-29 IN THIS
REGION. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE
EAST JUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS UP THROUGH 12Z. WITH THE COLD AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WET ROADWAYS WILL TURN TO ICE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA. HAVE A FEELING THERE WILL BE SOME TRAVEL
ISSUES LATER THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH PRECIP HAVING ENDED. AREAS
THAT RECEIVED PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH ICY ROADS
NOW WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. MAY HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS JUST
TO GET THE WORD OUT. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS QUITE A BIT IN
THE FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING AS SPEEDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SEEING SPEEDS FROM
25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

AFTER ALL THIS...ONLY REAL STORY LATER TODAY IS JUST THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 20S TODAY WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING WHAT MAY BE THE LAST REALLY COLD NIGHT
IN AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOWS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO...OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT DOES
APPEAR THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH SO THAT MAY
PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM UP.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE MILD TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE EAST
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY TO SEE MILD TEMPS. EASTERN AREAS
WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE OVERALL COLD AIR MASS WITH THE
RETREATING HIGH...SO EXPECTING ONLY 20S FOR HIGHS WHILE CENTRAL SD
WARMS INTO THE 30S AND 40S. SUNDAY LOOKING VERY MILD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH 40S AND 50S WIDESPREAD. PROBABLY EVEN FLIRTING
WITH 60 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE TREND EXCEPT FOR A COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS
ALL SHOW THE REGION DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIR MASSES AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS STAY MAINLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES MAINLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO BEGIN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING AND
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH A GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS
DRY. THE EC AND MEX GUIDANCE FINALLY AGREE WELL AND HAVE HIGHS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 50S OUT WEST.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CAA STRATUS/STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. GOOD MIXING AND A SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS BREEZY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER AT TIMES. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND
THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN