000
FXUS63 KABR 262326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUNDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR TNT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH OVER THE REGION BUT
WINDS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP ENOUGH SUCH THAT LOWS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO CHILLY. HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL TURN A BIT CHILLY UNDER A SFC HIGH AND LITTLE TO NO WIND. FOR
SUNDAY FULLY EXPECT SC/CU TO FORM BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT.
MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO SNEAK OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
MIXING WILL ALSO PROMOTE AT LEAST BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH
A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT HIGHS MORE ON SUNDAY DESPITE
DEEP MIXING LAYER.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. POSITIVE PNA
PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CONUS...WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION. WITH
NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO BE NEAR CLIMO NORMALS
WITH LITTLE WIND UNDER THE HIGH. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME MINOR 700HPA
WAVES DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW THAT COULD SPARK UP A FEW
MINOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT NOWHERE NEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MAKE A MENTION OF ATTM.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 30 MPH RANGE AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN