Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Pcpn chances are the main challenge this forecast cycle. After the
system in the east moves on, much of the upcoming night may be dry.
The ECMWF seems to be the biggest outlier in developing light pcpn
across much of the cwa in developing WAA pattern across the region.
If anything, model soundings would probably support dz more so than
measurable pcpn. For now am planning to stick with plain old rain
chance, especially over northwest forecast area where model do
maintain some semblance of a baroclinic zone that extends northeast
across North Dakota. By mid to late afternoon on Thursday, an
inverted trof/front will be making its way east over the forecast
area as a sfc low begins to pick up steam over the Central Plains.
Models indicate a surge of LLM/MLCAPE north into the far southern
part of the state by afternoon/evening. So, some weak convection is
possible over the far southern cwa before drier airmass starts to
invade from the north late Thursday night. Temperatures look to be
above normal over the next 24 to 36 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Models still continue with a southern track to the storm system
moving across the plains Thursday night through Friday night.
Surface low track is agreed upon well by the models now, taking it
out of CO and across the KS/OK region. This continues to suggest
most of the precip will be along the southern fringes of the CWA or
even further south than that. The 12Z Canadian still keeps QPF a bit
further north, but seems to be an outlier at this point. Inherited
POP grids looked OK and did not deviate from them for the time
being. Although, did back off on QPF over the CWA a bit and used a
50/50 blend of WPCGuide and SuperBlend. The Canadian was likely an
influence in some of the higher QPF values over the CWA, but it
appears this model may be an outlier. Otherwise, not seeing much
else real noteworthy for precip potential until perhaps the middle
of next week when another storm system may be affecting the region.

As for temperatures, given what models are showing for 925/850 mb
temps, things should be near to even a bit above normal through the
period. Although, no significant warming looks to be taking place.
On the other hand, don`t see any abnormally cold air masses ready to
move in either. Overall, expect highs to range from the upper 40s to
around 60 degrees across the CWA through the period, with the
warmest readings over the western CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through tonight. However some
low clouds may make their way into the region Thursday morning or
early Thursday afternoon.





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