Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271801 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
101 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 1123 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Very few changes needed for this morning`s update. Skycover is on
the increase, and so is areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the southern half of the forecast area.
Heading into this afternoon, these showers and thunderstorms will
move up into central and northeast South Dakota and continue
across west central Minnesota. No changes planned to high
temperatures today. Updates are out.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Focus for today will be on the arrival of showers and thunderstorms
as a wave of energy ejects northward across the region. Hi-res CAM
solutions continue to suggest activity moving into the southeast CWA
by mid/late morning with a continued westward movement/development
through the James Valley and into the southwest CWA by the afternoon
hours. With little in the way of instability, not expecting there to
be much of a threat for severe storms. Current pops may be a tad too
fast bringing in precip based on latest HRRR runs, so something to
watch over the next several hours as pops may need to be adjusted a
bit. Regardless of timing, it still appears precip is a decent bet
across the eastern CWA today.

The main area of low pressure moves northeast across the region
tonight through Saturday. This will bring continued chances for
showers and storms across the CWA, especially eastern areas. NAM and
EC appear to be in decent agreement with good coverage of showers
across the eastern CWA during the day Saturday, but the GFS looks to
be an outlier with a more eastward surface low track. Not expecting
much in the way of strong or severe storms on Saturday either as
overall instability is lacking still.

Broad and weak upper level riding builds across the Northern Plains
on Sunday, which should help warm up temps a bit and also begin to
dry things out.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A change in the long wave flow pattern appears to be taking shape
during the long term. The recent southwest CONUS trof/southeast
CONUS ridge look to transform into a positive PNA pattern...featuring
a western CONUS ridge/northeast CONUS trof.  This should spell drier
conditions across the region eventually.  The main system to affect
the area during the period will be a trof diving into the Northern
Plains early to mid next week as western ridge amplifies.
Unfortunately the models are a bit different with the
speed/evolution of this system. The ECMWF remains the fastest while
the GFS/GEM are slower. The differences in the models have required
that pops be continued into the middle of next week as a compromise
solution. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly below
average for the majority of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the valid taf period.
However showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon
and any of those could provide for brief periods of lowered vsby
in moderate to perhaps occasionally heavy rain.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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