814
FXUS63 KABR 121650
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will return today, both aloft and near the
  surface. Visibility during the morning hours may be
  significantly reduced as it moves through northern and eastern
  South Dakota and into west central MN.

- Precipitation returns to the area early next week with the highest
  chances (40-60%) Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

- The potential exists for a noticeable cool-down during the
  middle of next week (temperatures 10 to perhaps 15 degrees
  below normal).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

We continue to monitor the cumulus clouds developing over
northeastern SD and western MN. Still, smoke will continue to be
the main concern, with visibilities across much of the area
between 4 and 6 miles. The thickest area of smoke just east of
the MO River at 1630Z will continue to shift east and reside over
northeastern SD/western MN through the evening and much of the
overnight hours. Check out the latest on the smoke near the
surface and potential impacts from the EPA at airnow.gov

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Both sfc high pressure and an upper trough slide east today and
tonight. Cooler temperatures under the upper trough (highs in the
70s) across the east will be further depressed by returning smoke
from Canadian wildfires. The HRRR drops visibility in near sfc smoke
from just west of the James Valley eastward this morning. Upstream
obs are as low as 2 miles in smoke. It does look fairly quick
moving, though, and except for areas east of I-29, seems to not
affect peak heating time. Still, elevated smoke is expected to
arrive in waves. This may all be enough to drop forecast highs from
model guidance by 2 to 3 degrees.

On Sunday, a weak trough moves through as upper ridging builds in
from the west. Elevated smoke may move back in behind the trough on
north to northwest flow. For now, stuck close to NBM for highs which
soar into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Dry conditions are expected
through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Winds aloft will turn more zonal Monday with a couple of weak
shortwaves embedded within this flow pushing eastward across the
northern CONUS and Canada through the middle of next week. A lee low
is forecasted to form over MT Sunday evening and track southward
over the Northern Plains through Tuesday, with the CWA forecasted to
be behind the low/cold front by Wednesday morning. High pressure
from the north will start to dip down during this time and center
itself over the Northern Plains for the end of the week bringing dry
weather. It will then shift southeast and out of the region by
Saturday. Zonal flow will continue aloft with more of a broad low
amplitude ridge building over the Rockies/Plains by Friday. Beyond
this time frame, Clusters really diverge on whether ridging will
continue or flatten out.

This area of low pressure will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
starting Monday evening with precip chances continuing through late
Wednesday or early Thursday (model depending). The highest pops of
40-60% is forecasted to be Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
morning associated with the cold front. Severe weather could be
possible, especially within the warm sector on Monday and ahead of
the cold front on Tuesday. Right now CIPS does not indicate a severe
threat while CSU/NSSL highlights a 5-15% chance both of these days
for portions of the CWA.

Temperatures will be quite toasty on Monday as winds at the surface
and 850mb will be out of the south. 850mb temps will range from +20
to +27C which is about average and surface highs are forecasted to
range in the upper 80s to the upper 90s. Probability of maxT>100,
per NBM, is about 15-20% over portions of south central SD. Fast
forward to behind the cold front and it is going to feel more like
fall on Wednesday and Thursday! 850mb temps will cool to +12 to
+15C, which is about 1 standard deviation below climo per NAEFS. NBM
high temps for both of these days are only forecasted in the upper
60s to the mid/upper 70s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees below
normal. EC EFI indicates MaxT is -0.6 to -0.8 with a shift of tails
of zero over northern SD Wednesday and northern half of the state on
Thursday. Temps do rebound back into the 70s and 80s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Winds will remain light through at least 12Z Sunday, around 10kts
or less. Gusts during the day Sunday will be in the 15-25kt
range. Smoke will continue to be the main concern. While much of
this smoke is elevated, visibility over eastern ND has been down
to around 2SM. Visibility at MBG is improving, with deteriorating
conditions expected at ATY. The HRRR guidance does show the
potential for 1-2SM visibility in smoke at ABR between 20 and 23Z
this afternoon/evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...06