Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270216 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
916 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EWD FROM CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BEEN
PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRYING TO MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO CENTRAL AREAS BUT NOT REALLY HAVING MUCH LUCK DOING SO. TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FELL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THIS EVENING. FEEL
THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF THEIR FALL WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY
CWA WIDE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 60S AND 70S ON
BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN RAMPING UP BY LATE TONIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FORCING/LIFT/SATURATION DEVELOPS. A COUPLE POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL CAA BEGINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. MONDAY SHOULD ALSO PROVE TO
BE A RATHER BREEZY/WINDY DAY ON NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
REACHED OCCASIONALLY ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES/OCCLUDES
EAST OF THIS CWA BY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFTING AWAY FROM THIS CWA. DID LEAVE IN SOME GRADIENT
POPS ALONG NORTHERN/EASTERN BORDER EDGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
FOR BLENDING PURPOSES...BUT OVERALL THREAT FOR PRECIP RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MONDAY EVENING OVER THIS CWA. THE CAA
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 850HPA THERMAL PROGS FORECAST
TO DIP BELOW FREEZING WHILE 925HPA THERMAL PROGS DROP INTO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO
HINTING AT SOME STRATUS WORKING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY LOOKS COLD. COLD AIR IN PLACE AND
POTENTIALLY A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK AROUND ON TUESDAY COULD MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO NOTHING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY QPF WITH IT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS LOW POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPS. THE HIGH SETTLES IN BY 12Z FRIDAY SO
LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY A PRETTY COLD MORNING FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN WARMING
THINGS BACK UP BY SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD TOWARD EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHRAS NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS NWRN SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO MBG BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO INCLUDED VCSH MENTION FOR ATY BEGINNING MID
MORNING MONDAY. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OR BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED AT
MBG AND PIR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...VIPOND

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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