Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 220537 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATED THE MIN TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS KABR /AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS/ WAS AT OR NEAR FORECAST LOWS AT 02Z. KNOCKED SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES OFF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE TYPICALLY
COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME PATCHY FOG A BIT FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND STARTING A LITTLE BIT EARLIER IN THE TONIGHT
PERIOD. UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATE SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EVENING BUT AS
A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS CANADA THURSDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY ALSO
RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU...ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY IN THE NIGHT...BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE FRIDAY FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS POINT AS WELL...HOWEVER
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE SHOWING MODEST FORCING. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB. STILL...IF SATURATION CAN
OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. SO
WHILE THE POTENTIAL IS LOW...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...AND WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS MILD PACIFIC AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME
PERIOD...WITH JUST A HINT OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA. WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...THEN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WELL THE IFR AT KATY REMAINS. JUST DEALING WITH A SMALL AREA OF
IFR THERE AT KATY AND ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER KABR. ZOOMING
WAY IN ON KPIR...THERE IS ALSO A SMALL STREAMER RUNNING RIGHT OVER
THE ASOS AT KPIR...CAUSING IT TO REPORT A BROKEN MVFR CIG. ONCE A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THERE AT KPIR EARLY THIS
MORNING...THINKING THAT CIG SHOULD DISAPPEAR. OTHERWISE...VFR
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS BY LATE THIS
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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