Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 080118 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
818 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...OTHER FORECAST FIELDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST JUST
NORTHWEST OF WATERTOWN. THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THAT IS
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SHORTWAVE IS ALSO
ROTATING DOWN THE UPPER FLOW OVER CENTRAL ND. NOT MUCH TO NOTE
WITH THE WAVE RIGHT NOW AS THERE ARE JUST SOME GENERAL STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE IS SOUTH OF
THIS CWA...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM NEAR KATY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AROUND 3Z. A WEAKER WAVE
MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER AIR
THEN MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AT THIS POINT...IT WOULD APPEAR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD
BE THE BEST IDENTIFIABLE TIME PERIOD FOR BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HEALTHY LOOKING LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS A BIT MORE MUDDY AND
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM ALLBLEND POPS...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
OVERDONE WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT SAY I CAN
REALLY PINPOINT A TIME PERIOD THOUGH WHERE THE FORECAST CAN REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT IN SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM TEMPS TO START THINGS OFF WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS
ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THUS ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EC THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WHEREAS THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY CAVEAT IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS...THIS LINE
IS WEAKENING QUICKLY...AND THE TRACK WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL STORMS
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN. THEREFORE...DID NOT MENTION
ANY THUNDER OR SHOWERS IN THE TAF UPDATE...HOWEVER THERE IS
ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THESE STORMS HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT
THE KMBG TAF SITE...AND WILL MONITOR AND AMEND ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW 12 KTS
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.