Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 131613 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1013 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Bumped up high temperatures today a few degrees everywhere but
west central MN. Brought the forecast more in line with the ECMWF.
Clear skies, warm temps aloft, and west to southwest winds will
help temps rise quickly today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Will start out this morning with a persistent 500mb trough
overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb
cut off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday
morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday
afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across
the Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to
propagate eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday.

At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was
over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low
over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The
trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our
eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high
clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little
uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to
experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be
downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through
Leola and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau
from Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind
direction, do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb
temps will rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west
and east of the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher
than originally anticipated over the last couple of days, and
bumped them up a bit. These are also areas of limited to no snow
left, which shows up well on the MODIS imagery from yesterday.
Slightly cooler air does slide in for Tuesday, behind the exiting
sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake Superior, knocking afternoon
temperatures down 3-5F across the board. The coolest air. 850mb
temps of -5 to -9C will be over the eastern half of the forecast
area. Expect a sfc ridge to build overhead Tuesday night. Then
warm southerly winds will return for Wednesday, as the ridge exits
across MN. Highs will be back in the 40s to low 50s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions were generating qpf over
this cwa Sunday night (ECMWF), Feb 19, and Monday (GFS), Feb 20, in
deep southerly flow. However, the GFS ensemble output was much less
with qpf at the day 7-8 timeframe. "Likely" pops in Superblend for
that forecast period may be a little overdone at this point. Until
then, the extended is dry while an upper level ridge migrates from
the western conus to the central conus, and upper level longwave
troffing develops across the western conus.

When the period opens, Wednesday night, low level waa is in full
swing with steadily warming temperatures expected through the first
half of the weekend. If clouds and precipitation potential do start
to show up at the end of the extended forecast later today or
tomorrow, the impact to temperatures will likely be some cooling. At
this point, though, p-type would probably be rain from any system
working northward through the region within a much above normal
temperature regime like the one being forecast for later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through today and
tonight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn



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