Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 311733 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KPIR
AND KMBG HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE PASSAGE AND HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
KABR WILL SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE RIGHT AROUND 18Z. KATY WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION AT KPIR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT


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