417
FXUS63 KABR 210527 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The main short term issue is pcpn and temps. System out west
(mid level trof) will continue to dig before ejecting northeast
across the region on Saturday. Ahead of the trof, there`ll be a
strong LLJ that will keep winds healthy overnight, thus mild lows.
The LLJ will also act to bring up increasing
moisture/instability, which could lead to a late night
thundershower or two. On Saturday, post frontal pcpn is expected
over the western/central CWA. Rainfall amounts look pretty
meager, probably less than a quarter inch. Meanwhile, pressure
rises west of the cold front will likely bring some gusty winds to
the western CWA late tnt and Saturday, but for now they are
forecast to remain below wind advisory criteria. However, this is
something later shifts will have to keep an eye on. For Sunday,
it will turn milder as WAA develops across the region via breezy
southwest winds. Overall temperatures will remain above normal
through the weekend, particularly on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night into Monday
morning, with colder air pouring in through Tuesday. The cold will
be felt especially across the eastern area of the CWA where 850 mb
temps are progged to dip to around -5C by 12Z Tuesday. This will
translate to highs in the low 50s on Tuesday for the eastern CWA,
although 50s will still be common over most of the forecast area.
There doesn`t appear to be much in the way of precipitation
associated with this system either.

Upper ridge builds back in briefly for Wednesday and Wednesday night
as highs rebound back into the 60s and lower 70s. A much stronger
cold front is shown by models to move through on Thursday, with
possibly the coldest air thus far this season moving in for late
next week. Both the 12Z GFS and EC are showing 850 mb temps as low
as -11C to -12C. Early numbers in the MEX guidance are showing
lows in the teens with highs around 40 by next Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
overnight and through the day Saturday. The exception will be the
potential for some MVFR cigs associated with scattered rain showers
set to track across the area Saturday morning into the early
afternoon hours. Look for gusty south to southeast winds to shift
around to the northwest as a frontal boundary tracks across the area
late tonight into Saturday morning. Gusty winds can be expected
behind the front through the afternoon hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Wise