


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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314 FXUS63 KABR 011137 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance) expected across the region overnight into early Wednesday morning, with small hail up to around quarter size being the main threat. - Heat and humidity return to the region Wednesday through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and 90s, and dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s. Heat indices flirting with 100 degrees over central SD. - A system late Friday/early Saturday will bring relief from the heat and humidity in the form of storms (50-70% chance eastern SD/western MN). Main concern is the potential for heavy rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Surface high pressure over the region early this morning is providing for clear skies, light winds, and temps falling into/through the 50s. As the day progresses, this high center will gradually shift southeast and eventually allow for increasing southerly winds over central SD, while warm air advection also overspreads the area. Thus, highs today will be a bit warmer than Monday, with areas along and west of the James River rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. Skies look to remain sunny today as well. Overnight, we continue to see the development of a 35-40kt low-level jet nosing into the CWA. Mid-level atmospheric dewpoints begin to increase as well within the broad return flow across the Northern Plains. HREF mean MUCAPE values generally range from 500-1000 J/KG, with 30-35kts of effective shear. HREF composite reflectivity >40dBz ensemble paintballs show rather good consistency in showing convective development across north central SD around 05Z-06Z, then spreading continued development/movement of convection southeast towards KATY/KBKX by 10Z-11Z. Given the good signals, and basically all CAMs showing convection across the CWA, increased PoPs above NBM to likely where the paintballs were showing highest confidence. Small hail, perhaps up to quarter size, seems to be the main threat with any storms that develop overnight. Some of this activity may linger into Wednesday morning across the eastern CWA and have small PoPs (20-30%) for this. Dewpoints in the 60s look to make a comeback by Wednesday as temperatures remain warm to hot across the region. Hottest area looks to be over the southwest CWA where 850mb temps rise to between +20C to +25C. Highs in the mid 90s seem likely, with heat indices flirting with 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Wednesday night the ridge axis moves overhead, with southwesterly flow and warm air advection in the mid-levels. 700mb temperatures still appear to only top out around +11 to +14C, roughly a standard deviation above climo. Thursday`s surface setup includes a lee low over eastern Wyoming and light easterlies prior to an early morning warm frontal passage, which becomes more of an inverted trough extending to the east northeast, and primarily southerly flow, with just a slight easterly component (170-160 degrees). The lee low lifts northeast through the overnight Thursday, into central North Dakota by Friday morning. A cold front is then set up by 00Z Saturday along the Missouri valley. This will mean surface flow for Friday may take on a more westerly component east river (190-200 degrees). With regard to temperatures both days, NBM 25th/75th percentile range is about 5 degrees, though its important to note that deterministic NBM is closer to the 25th percentile. As for dewpoints, given the time of year and past experience, the NBM is underdone for Thursday with the lower mixing potential wind direction but on par with most deterministic guidance. The NAM does show a slug of +70 rich air moving overhead during the early part of the day but its mostly associated with the warm front with moderation into the 60s during the day. For Friday, with the slight southwest component we could see more mixing potential, although pooling along the front later could likewise add to surface humidity. Thus, its a low/moderate confidence forecast when it comes to heat index values for Thursday/Friday with any headline potential. Then we have to address severe weather potential for later Friday, with the hot and humid airmass in place, and the slow eastward progression of the frontal system as it moves into eastern SD/western MN. Mean NBM CAPE is just above 2000j/kg. GFS BUFKIT profiles indicate quite a bit of warm air through the column limiting CAPE (6 to 7C/km above the mixed layer). This is a pretty moist column however, with NAEFS PWATs up in the 1.5-1.75 range or 2 standard deviations above climo. Flow aloft is relatively weak, with mid level winds only about 20-40kts and 0-6km shear ranging between 10 to 30kts. Weak mid level flow and high PWATs means the concern is more in regards to heavy rainfall than severe weather. A weak upper trough will be in place over the weekend, with cooler mid/low-level temperatures. The wave train continues however, so additional rounds of weather can be anticipated through the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Late in the period, -TSRA/TSRA are expected to develop across the region and will use PROB30 to address this potential. MVFR VSBY is possible in areas of heavier precipitation. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...TMT