Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 101641
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1041 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Went ahead and issued a Red Flag for southwest zones. Already
seeing RWIS humidity down to 20-30 percent across the area and
adjoining UNR CWA. Mixed winds in BUFKIT are around 20kts along
the border area and a few RWIS are already gusting to around 25mph
so we are close enough to criteria already this early. No other
changes of note.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Rather mild temps across the CWA early this morning as the warm
front has passed to the east. Winds remain breezy and are keeping
temperatures up, with most places in the 30s and even some lower
40s. This is just a sign of the mild air mass over us, which will
allow temps to climb nicely today. The western CWA will be able to
rise into the 40s and 50s with mild 925mb temps and good mixing.
Still some coolish temps aloft further east so expecting only mid to
upper 30s east of the James River. A rather dry air mass will advect
into western/central SD as well, with forecast RH values dropping
into the 20s and 30s - even some teens across southwest SD but these
values may be a bit tough over our CWA. With breezy west to
northwest winds for central SD later this afternoon, will see an
uptick in fire danger - mainly over the southwest CWA where the
ground is bare. Still dealing with some snow cover over north
central SD which will suppress fire danger.

Focus for tonight will turn to the windy conditions that will
develop. 850mb winds on the order of 50 to 55 knots will develop
late tonight, with 925mb temps more in the 35 to 40 knot range.
0.5km winds approach 50 knots over the western CWA after 06Z
tonight. Winds speeds could approach advisory levels for western
areas by 12Z Monday so will have to keep an eye on this. May be hard
to tap into these stronger winds aloft over central SD, with better
potential over western SD. May be one of these situations when we
leverage models such as the NSSLWRF for wind grids overnight as it
seems to do better highlighting higher elevations of the CWA when
winds just off the surface are rather strong.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Persistent long wave pattern featuring a west conus ridge and east
conus trof will continue across the conus through the period, with
perhaps some de-amplification toward the end of the long term
forecast. During the long term there are several periods that stand
out for pcpn chances. The first is Monday as a system drops
southeast across the region.  The heaviest amounts with this system
should be east of the ABR cwa, or just to the left of the sfc low
track across Minnesota. Over the ABR forecast area, mainly just
snow/rain showers are expected, along with gusty winds.  More energy
aloft is expected to move through the region both Wednesday and
again Saturday.  Light pcpn can be expected from these systems.
Temperatures overall will favor near to above normal since there is
no real arctic air in sight throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ267.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT


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