Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 242342 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
542 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING. THE CHANGE OVER
TEMP APPEARS TO BE 34 DEGREES AS SISSETON AND AREAS ALONG THE
HILLS HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED FROM RAIN TO SNOW. KATY...OTHER
THAN SOME CURRENT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP
AS SNOW STARTING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM ADVECTION RAIN MOVING ALONG AN AXIS NORTH AND EAST OF A KBIS
TO KHON LINE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. TO THE NORTHEAST HOWEVER...COLDER AIR IS BACKING IN THE
SYSTEM. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES NO COLDER THAN
UPPER 20S...SO THAT WILL CONSTITUTE OVERNIGHT LOWS...CONFINED TO
THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. COOLING PROFILES WILL RESULT IN
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST. MOST
LIKELY WE WILL SEE A WET SNOW WITH A HIGH COMPACTION RATE GIVEN
PROFILE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. GUIDANCE GIVES
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE
SPECTRUM.

THE SYSTEM DEPARTS SUNDAY BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL LINGER
LIMITING HEATING AND THUS HIGHS. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN OVERNIGHT
WITH H925 READINGS INTO THE +3 TO +6C RANGE...SO LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE DAY AND HIGHS AT NIGHT FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. ALSO WILL
HAVE SOME COTEAU ENHANCEMENT WITH H925 WINDS AROUND 35KTS. THAT
WARM AIR REMAINS INTO MONDAY WITH 900-925MB MIXED DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THE JAMES CLOSE BETWEEN UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S...AND COTEAU INTO MID 40S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR THE MOST PART...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY
QUIET...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF POSSIBLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN JUST SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE WARRANTED JUST A NON
MEASURABLE POP AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS HITTING THIS A BIT
HARDER THAN THE ECMWF. THEREFORE DUE TO THIS AND THE FACT THAT IT
IS THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN WILL SEE A PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVE IN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
AFFECT KABR THIS EVENING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR KABR BY 3Z.
KATY WILL SEE ALL SNOW STARTING BY 1Z. THE TRANSITION TEMPERATURE
APPEARS TO BE 34 DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS. KMBG WILL SEE A
RETURN TO RAIN AS PRECIP WRAPS BACK IN FROM ND. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AS
WELL WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR KPIR DIMINISHING BY 6Z. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR CORSON-
     DEWEY-JONES-STANLEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.