Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 281122
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
522 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS
OFF AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH KMBG/KABR TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN SHORT DURATION WITH LITTLE
ICE ACCUMULATION.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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