922
FXUS63 KABR 292329 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More widely scattered showers/storms late afternoon into early
  evening across central SD. Some may contain gusty winds or small
  hail.

- Heat and humidity return by the end of the week with highs
  approaching 90F degrees once again and dewpoints back into the
  60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A shortwave trough is expected to move across south central SD this
evening, setting off some showers and thunderstorms. While the
official outlook for severe storms remains south of this forecast
area, wouldn`t be surprised if one or two of the storms reached
severe criteria. There`s still 1500 to 2000 J/kg CAPE, 7 to 8 C/km
lapse rates and 35 to 40 kts of bulk shear along the UNR/ABR border.
The bigger question will be storm placement. Some of the hi-res CAMs
slide the storms southeast in western SD, missing our cwa
completely.

Late tonight an upper trough digs into the Dakotas with a weak
backdoor cold front. Sfc high pressure will keep central SD dry
Monday, but decent mid level moisture and unstable northwest flow in
the east could lead to some afternoon popcorn showers. Added 20 to
30% pops east of the James Valley Monday afternoon to cover the
potential. After 0z, the drier air mass intrudes from the west and
should cut off any precip.

Upper ridging builds back in on Tuesday. A 25 kt llj develops
Tuesday night and could bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. By Wednesday, some of the guidance
members show a warm front pushing north through South Dakota. This
will usher in even more heat and humidity for the end of the work
week under the upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing wx conditions are forecast to be VFR through Monday
afternoon. Mostly showers, but maybe some embedded thunderstorms,
will move over the KPIR/KMBG terminals through appx 02Z. It`s a
reach, but some of this shower activity may be able to reach
KABR/KATY later this evening before fizzling out. Will amend as
needed.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10