Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 232350 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
650 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The surface map currently consists of a low near Rapid City with a
warm front stretching along the ND/SD border. Temperatures south of
the front are in the 60s and lower 70s with breezy south to
southwesterly winds. Of course temperatures are much cooler north of
the front with readings only in the low to mid 40s. It`s even colder
further north. With the front pushing further north than expected,
along with clearing skies, high temps this afternoon may need to be
adjusted up some more.

The surface low will track across the region later tonight and
through the day on Monday. This system, along with an upper level
trough will bring showers to most of the CWA. With the trough over
southern California, it should be a while before showers begin to
impact this CWA. Eastern SD may not see showers until after 12Z
Monday. Limited instability, have kept the mention of thunder out of
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A wetter and cooler pattern is in store for the extended period. An
upper trough will settle over the Plains and intermountain West.
Shortwave activity will lead to unsettled weather with periodic
showers. The trough will draw down cooler air and when combined with
clouds will result in max temps well below average. Temps will only
top out in the 40s mid week with weak recovery into the lower 50s
for the last part of April. Lower temps will mean mixed precip
overnight and early in the morning. Any showers could be light snow
or a rain and snow mix before changing to rain during the day. Best
chances for precip will occur early Friday across the south and
early Sunday. Confidence is low as to timing due to model
inconsistencies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A cold front dropping south this evening will bring winds around to
the northeast and breezy at ABR and ATY. The front had already been
through MBG this evening with breezy northeast winds. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions are expected through the night and Monday for
all locations except MBG where MVFR ceilings will move in tonight.
Also, an upper level low pressure trough moving into the region will
bring some scattered showers later tonight and Monday to the region.
These may affect the airports at or in the vicinity.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr



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