Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 260225 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
925 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Made some adjustments to sky cover, otherwise the forecast is in
fine shape for the overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

As of 20Z, an area of low pressure over the western Dakotas is
bringing breezy southerly winds and clearing skies to the western
half of the CWA. While the clearing line is marching over the
Prairie Coteau, easterly flow may keep the I-29 corridor cloudy
for a few more hours. With winds becoming light again tonight, the
low stratus and fog will likely push back westward, potentially
reaching the Missouri River valley by 6Z Sunday. Like today, the
low stratus and fog may take several hours to burn off. That said,
a weak system will be crossing the region late tonight through
Sunday. This system could lift the stratus sooner than expected.
Not expecting a lot of pcpn with this system as there is a good
amount of dry air above the stratus deck.

With a weak pressure pattern over the region Sunday through Monday,
patchy fog and cloudy skies seems possible. Skies should begin to
clear on Monday afternoon as better mixing winds develop ahead of a
surface low pressure system. This low pressure system will bring
light pcpn into western South Dakota by early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The long term models all have different solutions for the Tuesday
through Saturday time period. The models show a large upper level
low pressure area over the southwest U.S kicking east or northeast
through the week while another large low pressure area drops in
behind into the southwest U.S. The issue will be how much
moisture/lift will be able to move north and affect our region
through this period. The drier northern stream branch may dominate
our region. The three models all have different solutions for the
long term. The Canadian would have us with very good chances of rain
from Tuesday into Wednesday while the GFS would have it completely
dry. The EC was somewhere in between mainly hitting our western CWA
with rain. Therefore, at this time left the superblend chance pops
going for now. For Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, the EC
shows the upper low pressure area spreading some light rain in from
the south and east while the gfs was dry. Again, just left the
superblend pops pretty much as is with chances of light rain with
this disagreement. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look dry for now
as the upper low pressure area in the southwest U.S. heads east
looking to stay south of our region at this time. Temperatures
through the entire period should be from 5 to 10 degrees above
normal mostly in the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

IFR cigs around KATY will gradually spread or develop west
overnight to cover the remaining terminals. Also, areas of fog are
expected across the region later tonight, lasting into Sunday
morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK


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