Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 202128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Light rain showers continue to quickly diminish east of a line from
ABR to HON. There have been some temporary gusts of 20-25kts behind
this feature, but overall stronger winds have been pretty limited.
The sfc trough that brought us this rain has shifted into western
MN. The next trough is set up across MT, and will move over our area
during the day Tuesday.

Fog will be possible again tonight, mainly over the favored ATY area
and across our northeast where precipitation amounts of 0.10-0.20
inches fell.  30s will be common tonight. With a southerly downslope
gust picking up late tonight near 8D3, expect temperatures to stay
up in the upper 30s. These downslope winds will likely continue
through the morning hours Tuesday. Dry weather will be the rule
through Tuesday. No more PW values of near 1 inch.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

One more day of much above normal temperatures on Wednesday with
temperatures from 15 to 25 degrees above normal then back to near to
below normal for the rest of the long term. A couple short wave
troughs coming across the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday
evening will bring mainly chances of light rain across the northern
CWA. The models continue to have the Thursday through Friday surface
low pressure system mainly staying south of our region. The Canadian
had the furtherest north and slowest track. The EC was the quickest
with the system. Thus, the best chances of precipitation remain
across our far southern CWA south of a line from Pierre to
Watertown. Cooler northwest flow aloft prevails through the rest of
the long term into Monday across the CWA with mainly high pressure
at the surface. A few weak upper level troughs and surface fronts
coming across the region from the northwest may bring some small
chances of light snow. At this time left it dry until Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

MVFR ceilings/vis are pretty standard. However, ATY is dealing
with 1/4sm vis. Expect improving conditions in a couple of hours
as the deep moisture exits east and winds increase. Most locations
will get gusts of 20-25kts behind the last band of rain that is
currently set up near MBG to PIR that is moving northeast around
25kts. No more lightning is anticipated. Expect winds to diminish
to under 10kts tonight, before increasing slightly out of the
southwest during the day Tuesday.




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