Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 231731
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

CUT OFF/QUASI BAROTROPIC LOW OVER WESTERN SD THIS AM. ISENTROPIC
FORCING HELPING SUPPORT NARROW ARC OF WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA...ALONG WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM
NEBRASKA. ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS PROFILES ARE MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH SOME SKINNY
CAPE AOA 10KFT...A LEVEL WHICH IS COINCIDENTALLY WHERE MOST OF THE
FORCING IS BEING GENERATED. EVEN WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY WITHIN NAM
PROFILES.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTHEAST...WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS
SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK A PHASE SHIFT WILL OCCUR BRINGING IN AN UPPER
TROUGH AND SFC FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN TIMING THE
REGIME CHANGE AND THE POTENTIAL PRECIP. CURRENTLY STUCK WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF ALLBLEND POPS BUT LOWERED THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AND LOWERED CIGS DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE
KABR AND KATY TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KABR AND KATY. MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED HERE WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO NEAR 3 MILES. FOG
POTENTIAL AT KPIR AND ESPECIALLY KMBG IS LESS CERTAIN...HOWEVER
DID MENTION AT KPIR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. FOG
DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TVT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.