000
FXUS63 KABR 062138
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA AS OF
20Z...AND EXPECT THE WINDS THERE TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG
AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT
LAST LONG. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
FALLEN ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL JUST CARRY A SCHC FOR
ABOUT 4-6 HOURS OVERNIGHT...SO HOPEFULLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EAST WILL STILL BE A BIT COOL ON
SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS...BUT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WILL SEE 30S AND 40S.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND A TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH BEST FORCING
ENDS UP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT FEATURE...LOOKS
LIKE THE LONG RANGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MILD
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO WESTERLY
FLOW AND H85 READINGS AROUND +10C. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MVFR VSBY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE
IN INTENSITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS
STRATUS FOLLOWS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN