Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 061745 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE TIME BEING. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN STORY FOR TODAY IS THE ABNORMALLY WARM AIR THAT WILL PUSH EAST
INTO THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST 925MB TEMPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO SEE DECENT MIXING WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL SD. THERE ARE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINNING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF A
THICK CIRRUS SHIELD MATERIALIZES TODAY...HIGHS MAY FALL A FEW
DEGREES SHORT OF FORECAST. BUT IF WE SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THEN
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL BE COMMON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND THE POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING BASED ON
THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE WARNING TO START THINGS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL SD. STRUGGLED WITH THIS THOUGH AS IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS WILL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN PERHAPS A LULL FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS REALLY PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. DAY SHIFT MAY WANT
TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS BUT TRIED TO CAPTURE THE INITIAL WIND
SURGE AND POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS MAYBE IN MORE OF THE ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SD.

OTHER CONCERN IS THE SNOW POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CWA AND THE POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHEN YOU COMBINE THIS WITH
THE STRONG WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO
THE EASTERN CWA PERHAPS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVE WITH THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
WRAP AROUND SNOW. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. ITS
WITHIN THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...THE NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING
SOME MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF CAPE OVER THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND
JUST WHERE THE WESTERN FRINGE OF PRECIP POTENTIAL SETS UP. ANY
EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE LOW COULD KEEP A LOT OF THE PRECIP FURTHER
EAST SO WILL WAIT UNTIL 12Z MODEL RUNS COME IN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE US THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE END OF THE WEEK
...TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN PUTS OUR REGION
EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AND IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS SHOW TWO DECENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN
SD WHILE THE SECOND ONE PASSES FARTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD.
THESE TWO CLIPPERS WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT...WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS WITH THESE SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN COLDER
CANADIAN AIR AND MILDER PACIFIC AIR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL VARY WIDELY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
...TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FAR EAST
IN THE CWA TO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF TIMEFRAME...THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN GUSTS AT THE
KMBG AND KPIR TAF SITES COULD PEAK AROUND 50-55 KTS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT THE KABR/KATY TAF SITE /GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS/ BUT THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH LIGHT SNOW WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ006-018.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR


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