000
FXUS63 KABR 290940
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
340 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG THE STRATUS
DECK STICKS AROUND. THERE IS A PRETTY DEFINED EDGE TO STRATUS AND
IT DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. SO DID TAKE AN
OPTIMISTIC APPROACH...AND STARTED TO CLEAR CLOUDS OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER
THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
COOLER...BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND A RETURN FLOW/WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WHERE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL PASS
DRY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...HOWEVER BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER IN THE DAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE SECOND TRACKING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE IN BETWEEN THE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WILL THEN SEE
TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEADY
NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL
FALL OFF INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN