Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 290334 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
934 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PANNING OUT OKAY AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY/WEST RIVER COUNTIES. AT
THIS POINT...1-2 INCHES OF ACCUM ACROSS THE FAR SWRN ZONES IS
STILL APPROPRIATE FOR THIS EVENT. ONLY ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE BY MORNING...DESPITE BKN-OVC CLOUD
COVER PROBABLY ALL NIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LITTLE OF WHATS ON RADAR IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND THANKS TO A
FETCH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP
LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS...BUT WILL ALSO BE COUNTERED BY THE DRY AIR.
THUS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
POPS AND SNOW TOTALS.

WITH COLD ADVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEEING MIXED DOWN WINDS
IN THE TEENS...WITH H925 TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -20C.
WILL REMAIN MIXED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THUS...LOWS SHOULD
ONLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 BELOW...BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL VALUES FOR MONDAY
MORNING MIGHT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THE BETTER BET IS
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SETTLES OVERHEAD. WE
NEVER REALLY DO DECOUPLE...BY LATE TUESDAY WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WE BEGIN WARM ADVECTING. COULD BE STRONGER
WINDS FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREA OF THE COTEAU...THANKFULLY THERE IS A
LACK OF SNOW COVER FOR THAT PART OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW TAKES
HOLD. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT THE REGION
AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TRICKY. STUCK WITH THE
MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE PICTURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KABR/KATY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COLD/DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VISBIES IN SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AT KMBG/KPIR...BUT
PARTICULARLY AT KPIR. THEN...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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