Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190538 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 851 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

No major updates this evening. However, have backed off on timing
of pcpn into the cwa overnight. Latest model data suggests backing
off by several or more hours. For now temperatures look okay.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Stratus clouds are hanging in tough over northern and eastern parts
of the CWA, although a few breaks are beginning to show up.
Temperatures continue to struggle climbing with the lack of
sunshine. Main issue in the very short term deals with the degree of
stratus erosion into the evening and what, if any, fog potential
there is this evening. Most short term guidance suggests this
stratus deck will linger into the evening, while seeing some degree
of erosion at the same time. Timing this erosion is difficult, and
to what degree of areal coverage. Already beginning to see mid level
clouds streaming in from the west in advance of the next storm
system, so whatever clearing there is late this afternoon and
evening will likely be filled in by a higher mid level deck.
Therefore, fog chances are very iffy, but cannot be ruled out given
the small chances for a few hours of clearing this evening and the
surface ridge building in on top of wet soils. For the time being,
left fog mention out of the forecast given the low confidence, but
something to monitor this evening for sure.

Focus will then turn to the storm system moving in late tonight
through Wednesday night. Models still take aim on the area with
widespread showers. In fact, the bulk of the QPF has moved northward
a tad it seems, more into the CWA. With a lack of any instability,
it appears this time around we will be dealing with just showers.
Given the abundance of clouds on Wednesday, highs will be on the
cool side with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Things begin to dry out on Thursday with warming temperatures into
the 60s for most areas. Models do show some shortwave energy moving
southeast across the eastern Dakotas and into Minnesota Thursday
afternoon and evening. This system may clip the far northeast corner
of the CWA with some showers, but overall it appears this system
will largely miss the CWA for the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The long term models show good agreement through the entire period
with the upper level flow and individual short wave troughs. Friday
begins with a significant upper level trough digging off to our
southwest with weak upper level high pressure ridging over our
region. The trough may affect our far southwest CWA with some
rain showers on Friday. Otherwise, the period from Friday through
Sunday looks to be dry across our CWA. The weak high pressure
ridging over our region on Saturday will diminish as the upper
level flow increases from the west as another upper level ridge
moves in from the west from Saturday night into Sunday. The models
then all agree well with a short wave trough coming in from the
west and across our region later Sunday night into Monday evening
bringing back decent chances of showers. Another system for
Tuesday will bring in more chances of rain. Highs through Monday
are expected to be mostly in the 60s with clear to partly cloudy
skies through Sunday. Monday should be mostly cloudy with the
chances of rain showers and it may also be cooler than in the
current forecast. Tuesday looks to be in the 50s at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs are expected through the night. However,
widespread rain is expected to spread east on Wednesday, with a
mix of MVFR/IFR cigs, and MVFR vsbys developing with the rain at
all terminals.




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