Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 140312 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
912 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Issued at 910 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Just some high clouds currently streaming across parts of the CWA.
Winds will remain in the 10 to 15 MPH range overnight, which will
help keep temperatures from falling any lower than the mid 20s.
Therefore, no major changes made to the forecast this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

A sfc trough will exit the region tonight, but the associated short
wave activity in the upper trough will dip into northeast SD and
west central MN. This energy will bring in some clouds and have a
small effect on overnight lows. As an upper low drops down over the
Great Lakes, heights will be suppressed over the eastern CWA,
which will limit highs on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. That
said, temperatures are still expected to be above average and went
ahead and raised temps across the western CWA by 5 to 10 degrees
over Superblend. For what it`s worth, today`s highs seemed to be
best represented by a blend of the NAM and the ECMWF with the NAM
being slightly too low and the ECMWF a bit too high.

The region will remain dry through Tuesday night as ridging aloft
transitions into the Rockies and Plains. The surface pattern will be
transient with a series of troughs/dry fronts which will help to
enhance mixing and push temps up further, especially across the
western CWA. With temps above freezing, rapid snow melt is
expected. Once areas are snow free, temps will be able to surge
higher during daytime heating.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Main issue in the extended period is temperatures, and determining
just how warm to go in what`s looking to be a very mild time period
with well above normal temperatures. Trend throughout the extended
was to raise highs a handful of degrees every day based on 925/850
mb thermal progs and favorable mixing at times. The start of the
period looks dry, from Thursday into the first part of the
weekend. Will then be watching how models handle the low pressure
system that looks to affect the region Sunday into Monday. There
are still pretty significant differences as far as strength and
path of the system, but regardless of this, it appears it will be
so mild out ahead of this system that most of the precip will
occur as rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Tuesday.




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