Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161733 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1118 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Updates include increased cloud cover and sprinkle mention with
the system moving overhead, though most cigs are at or above
10kft. While already mentioned below, core of strongest
southeasterly winds will migrate across the CWA through the day.
Winds will shift to southwest just ahead of the cold front, and
then weaken in the post frontal environment. Refined these winds a
tad to match latest HRRR/RUC guidance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Main concern for today is the fire danger developing over the
western CWA this afternoon. Warm front will move into the western
counties mid to late afternoon, with gusty southerly winds out ahead
of the front. Core of strong 850mb winds moves through central SD
into the James Valley late morning through early afternoon before
moving into ND. There looks to be a period of fairly strong and
gusty winds (perhaps nearing advisory levels) from the Missouri
River into the James River from late morning into early afternoon.
Rather mild/warm air will be moving into the region as well, with
highs rising into the 70s and 80s. Main thing to watch will be the
warmth over central SD combined with the drying air near and behind
the warm front as it finally moves into the western CWA by mid to
late afternoon. RH`s are forecast to tank into the teens and 20s
this afternoon along and west of the Missouri River, especially over
fire weather zone 267. Decided to expand the Red Flag warning into
fire zone 268 as new dewpoint/RH forecast has trended drier. Would
not be surprised if reality ends up being even drier than forecast
which happens many times in these scenarios. Inverted V soundings
over western/central SD today with deep mixing and dry adiabatic
lapse rates. Also had a wildfire in Corson county last evening so
feel a RFW in this area will also prompt resources and awareness.
Strongest winds are actually expected ahead of the warm front, with
slightly lighter winds behind the front. There may even be a lull
for a time directly under the trough axis. This does throw a wrinkle
into things just a bit, as does the potential mid/high cloud shield
moving over the area today.

Focus will then shift to Monday as cooler air moves in along with
shortwave energy. Surface low also moves northeast across the
central Plains. Fairly decent dynamics slide over the northern half
of SD during the day Monday into Monday evening. POPs have been
increased a bit over the northern CWA. System will move out of the
area Monday evening, with seasonable temperatures for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

A long wave pattern transition looks to take place during the long
term. Nearly flat/fast flow aloft will begin to buckle significantly
early in the period, with the formation of a somewhat progressive
western conus ridge, and eastern conus trof.  In between over the
ABR CWA, heights will begin to rise as the ridge builds. This
should lead to a mostly dry setup across the forecast area. About
the only decent chance of pcpn should come next weekend as a
system digs toward the Northern Plains. Temperatures, overall,
should average out near to slightly above normal during the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
through midday Monday. There may be some MVFR cigs across the west
this afternoon in association with some sprinkles/light rain
showers. There may also be some MVFR cigs that develop over the
eastern CWA tonight. South/southeasterly winds of 15 to 30 knots
will diminish around sunset this evening.


SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for



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