Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270543 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1243 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SURFACE HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
LITTLE EARLY MORING FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A FEW HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT
UNTIL 00Z...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
RATHER QUICKLY. FOCUS WILL BE ON A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW LATE
SATURDAY. TIMING FAVORS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING PEAK HEATING THANKS TO
DEEP MIXING. MLCAPE MAXES OUT AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH DECENT SPEED
SHEAR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A HAIL/HIGH WIND
THREAT. TEMPERATURES MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S THANKS TO WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED IF DOWNSLOPE WARMS TEMPS INTO THE 90S FOR THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AROUND SISSETON. WILL CONTINUE POP CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES SOUTHWARDS WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL SEE DECENT MIXING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ENERGY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN THIS
FEATURE BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES OF ENERGY. THE MOST NOTABLE PERIODS FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST DURING THE TUESDAY TIME
FRAME AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OF COURSE...TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 90S MONDAY...BUT THEN RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FOG AT ABR AND ATY.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
ABR AND ATY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN



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