Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 011127 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
527 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Generally dry for the area with stratus remaining across the
forecasts area for the day today, into tonight and much of Friday.
BUFKIT profiles suggest we will see the top of this cloud layer toe
the line between ice and super cooled liquid. Thus, any localized
area of weak forcing pivoting around the upper low to the east will
result in a combination of either sprinkles and/or light snow. Minot
area is experiencing some light freezing drizzle which is headed
south, so will have to watch to see if that area holds together over
time.

Warm advection kicks in with a southwest wind component early
Saturday. This will scour/advect out any remaining low clouds.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

There has been lots of uncertainty in the models over the last few
runs, and the latest run is no exception. Right now it looks like a
surface trough will move through dry early in the period, but then
big differences begin to show up concerning a potential system for
the early to mid part of next week. For the time being, will stick
with Superblend pops for that time period, and keep the
precipitation type as light snow.

The early part of the period will feature near to slightly above
normal temperatures, with highs in the 30s Sunday and Monday. Colder
air then begins to filter into the region, with highs in the teens
and 20s Tuesday, and in the single digits and teens on Wednesday.
Overnight lows in the 20s Saturday night and Sunday night will give
way to lows mainly in the single digits Monday night and Tuesday
night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

IFR/MVFR cigs will remain across the central and eastern parts of
the CWA through the TAF period. Cigs across the west will jump
between MVFR and VFR today, then should drop back to IFR level
tonight.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin


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