Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162324 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Added some pops west of the Missouri this evening as some light
showers filter in from western SD. Still expect a more organized
round of precip to develop tonight and push east.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

As one weak upper level shortwave exits the region this evening,
another one will move in from the west. The next wave will bring
mid level cloudiness and isolated to scattered showers late
tonight through Saturday morning. Models have trended a bit
further southward with this system with the southern half of SD
having the best chance for pcpn.

A secondary system will cross the region Saturday afternoon. This
system will have better instability, between 500-1000 J/KG, and some
shear to work with. Not expecting severe storms, but a few could
produce small hail and gusty winds. Steep low level lapse rates
could create deep mixing winds, especially in central South Dakota.
Buffer soundings for KPIR suggest winds may reach advisory levels
for a few hours in the afternoon. Since winds are marginal, will
hold off on an wind advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The long wave pattern will feature northwest flow aloft Sunday and
through the beginning of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm
chances are possible across parts of eastern half the CWA Sunday,
but beyond Sunday most energy will remain off to the east, allowing
for a mainly dry forecast through mid week. By Wednesday, the
pattern begins to transition to more of a zonal flow, although the
ECMWF/GEM seem to indicate a slower transition than the GFS.
Regardless, the pattern does signal the return of precipitation
chances into the forecast. Will also gradually see the return of
moisture/instability by the end of the workweek, so thunderstorms
are probable, although at this point it doesn`t look like widespread
coverage across the CWA.

Temperatures overall will range right around normal in the 70s and
80s. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, trending slightly above
normal with highs topping out in the 80s and 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. West winds will
increase to 15 to 25 kts on Saturday with stronger gusts possible
near showers and thunderstorms.




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