Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION IS TRANSITIONING INTO AN MCV TYPE STRUCTURE
THIS EVENING. COULD STILL SEE SOME DISCRETE CELLS THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE MCV
WILL BE OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MSAS 3 HOURLY PRESSURE CHANGE
SHOWING ABOUT A 3 MB FALL. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA /KMBG DEWPOINT AT 61 DEGREES/. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. BESIDES THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA...MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEARED OF OVERNIGHT DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND DESTABILIZATION IS BECOMING APPARENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE IS SHOWING
3000 J/KG OF CAPE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS ALSO APPARENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
LIFT TO INITIATE STORMS. BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 40 TO
55 KTS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL THE INGREDIENTS SEEM
TO BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 212. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK. ALTHOUGH...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THE ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SYSTEM IS QUICK TO EXIT TONIGHT...AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL THEN BE THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET A GRASP ON THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF THE SYSTEM...BUT COULD MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN CWA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE WEST ON MONDAY...TOPPING OUT NEAR 16 C BY 06Z
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE U.S. AND CANADIAN
BORDER ON TUESDAY.  THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AS FAR EAST
AS THE SD/MN BORDER BY EARLY TUESDAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PCPN
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY...BUT DID HOLD ONTO A LOW POP
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. IT WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH...HIGHEST WEST RIVER. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AT
THE SFC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWER HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE RAINS OCCURRED SATURDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...PARKIN



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