Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 172346 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA. THIS IS THE LEFTOVERS FROM EARLY MRNG
CONV THAT FIRED OFF ACROSS WESTERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTN AND REMAIN SUBSEVERE WITH
JUST SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. NEW CONV HAS BEGUN TO FIRE FARTHER
WEST IN ASSOC WITH A STRONGER UPPER LVL S/W TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
THRU SWRN MT/NERN WY. THREE AREAS OF STORMS...WHICH HAVE TURNED
SEVERE... ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY...FROM SWRN ND SWD TWD THE BLACK
HILLS AND THEN SEWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE.

SHORT TERM MDL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON TIMING OF THIS CONV
AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTN THRU EARLY MON
MRNG. HOWEVER...PLACE OF THE STRONGEST CONV ELEMENTS REMAIN IN
QUESTION. CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG AND DECENT BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE THE
STORMS ARE INITIATING. SO...ANTICIPATE THESE AREAS OF CONV TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITH
TIME. OUR WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN LINE FIRST TO SEE STORMS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BEING
AFFECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MRNG. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BROADBRUSHED LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUALLY PLACEMENT OF CONV. ENDED POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
TWD MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER. REINTRODUCED THEM BACK IN OUR NWRN
ZONES BEGINNING MID MRNG MON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LVL LOW AS
NWRLY FLOW TAKES HOLD AND DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
PRODUCES CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHRAS/STORMS.

HOLDING ONTO HIGHER POPS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EWD THRU MOST OF
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU AND RETURNS A DRY FCST TO
THE ENTIRE CWA. NEXT CHC OF POPS RETURN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
THE END OF THE DAY TUE.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS
BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE /HEIGHT FALLS/
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED
BY SOME FORM OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF
DECENT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING NEAR CLIMO NORMAL TEMPS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY...THE PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS START
SHOWING UP.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT PIR AND MBG AND LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING TO ABR AND ATY. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING BACK SOME LOW VFR CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND
ATY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...VIPOND
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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