Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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229
FXUS63 KABR 271726 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

See the updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1023 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

The current forecast looks good overall. The only significant
change was to increase sky cover for most of the CWA through this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

The pesky cold front that has been impacting our weather over the
past 24 hours will be along our southeastern border at 12Z this
morning. The large sfc high across south central Canada will slowly
sink across the U.S./Canadian border through Thursday, before
concentrating over the Great Lakes region Thursday night through
Saturday. With northwest flow at 500MB and several small
disturbances traversing the region, it will be difficult to
completely get rid of off and on clouds later this afternoon
through Thursday. Expect highs in the mid 70s to low 80s both
today and Thursday on north to northeast winds.

The best chance of any precip will be west river Thursday-Friday, as
the sfc ridge slowly pushes across the eastern Dakotas as the next
trough organizes from MT through WY and CO. CAPE values look minimal
Thursday and Friday afternoon. Temperatures will rebound slightly
into the 80s cwa wide as southeast winds slowly return.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

A lot of uncertainty in the start of the extended. The pattern
remains the same, with northwest flow aloft until perhaps late
Sunday when a ridge builds over the Plains. However, there are
significant timing issues of shortwave activity, llj influence, and
the ridge shift which models have continued to slow. Superblend has
some built in uncertainty in this latest run as 20 to 30 pops Friday
night through Sunday do not correlate to the zero or near zero QPF
in its output. Kept slight chance to chance pops for much of the
extended due to the active pattern, but areas and timing will
definitely need fine tuning. By the start of the work week, an area
of sfc low pressure will work across the Dakotas, but the lower
levels will also dry out, so precip will remain isolated.

Temperatures will feature an upward trend with warmest highs on
Monday topping out near 100 across the southwestern cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Lingering MVFR CIGS over the KMBG TAF site will scatter out in the
next hour or so. Beyond that, no other reductions to CIGS and
VSBYS are expected. North northeast winds will transition to the
east tonight.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Serr



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