Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
405 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Been watching fog deck move south across southeast ND over the past
several hours, but has slowed a bit along the ND/SD border. Much of
the hi-res VSBY output continues to show a bit more of a southward
push into the northeast CWA over the next few hours, mainly along
either side of the Coteau. Previous WX grids had this handled well
and have not made many changes. Will see how things progress over
the next few hours as the fog is dense just over the border with
widespread 1/4 mile or less visibility. Any appreciable progress
into our CWA will likely require a hard look at a headline for dense

Otherwise for today, surface trough located over the high plains
will support rain showers for western SD, including the western CWA.
Although, have pushed POPs back a bit further west today, basically
west of the Missouri River. During the overnight hours, rain chances
spread eastward across southern SD, basically keeping northern and
eastern areas dry. The rest of the short term is dry after this
system departs the area on Wednesday.

Temperatures throughout the short term will stay on the mild side,
with readings in the 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The upper level split flow pattern will continue through most of
the extended. The end of the week system will have some upper level
support from the Missouri River vally west. A weaker upper level
trough dips into the region through the weekend potentially
generating some showers across northern SD. Models continue to
diverge next week with the ECMWF dragging the split flow pattern
aloft much farther north and dousing the Dakotas as a low moves
through the Plains. The GFS, at the same time, maintains the current
upper level pattern and keeps the cwa dry. Therefore, stuck with
consensus model pops. Temperatures through the period will remain
above average with highs in the 50s and 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR conditions should prevail at all four terminals through the
valid TAF period, except for a couple of hours either side of
sunrise this morning. There could be some short-lived sub-VFR fog
developing or moving into the region. Precipitation potential on
Tuesday appears to stay away from this region for the most part. But
if any terminal in this forecast area were to be impacted by light
rain, it would likely be the KPIR terminal.




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