Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211806 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1206 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.
DID ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A DOWN SLOPING WIND EVENT IS
UNDERWAY. UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WARM ADVECTION THIS AM WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MID DAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF. THE UPPER REFLECTION OF THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CWA. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST SATURDAY...SHIFTING
SURFACE WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY...BUT H925 TEMPERATURES INCREASE
TO +2 TO +5 SO SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF THE CWA...SO SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AM. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
MIXED DOWN WINDS ALSO TOP OUT AROUND 40KTS WEST RIVER. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY THANKS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON MONDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF PERIODS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
AS THIS LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WOULD BE AFFECTED. THE GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP DURING THIS
TIME...SO COULD SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH
INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR REACHING THE WESTERN CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS ON THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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