Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 271620 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1120 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW NOW FALLING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WAA LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT ABR AND ATY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT RAIN WAS MIXED IN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM ESPECIALLY
AT ABR AND ATY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FOG FORMED TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR





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