Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230209 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
909 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Issued at 909 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Cold front sinking south this evening and will move into northern
SD tonight. Current forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A cold front, currently running east/west over central North Dakota,
will continue sinking southward this afternoon and through tonight.
A few light showers will be possible along the front, mainly in
North Dakota this evening. Depending on which model used, this front
could slide as far south as Huron by Sunday morning. If this occurs,
it may be difficult for the front to push back north of this CWA as
a warm Sunday afternoon. While there is good agreement among
models with the placement of the warm front Sunday afternoon, a
slight difference of 40 miles will yield a drastic changes in
temperatures. Highs south of the front will likely reach the 60s
and 70s. North of the front, highs may only reach the lower 50s at
best. Locations along Highway 12 should be the battle ground for
the contrasting airmasses. Forecaster confidence is low with
regards to the placement of the front its` affect on temperatures.
Model guidance in Aberdeen is a prime example. The NAM has 56
degrees while GFS and others show upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

An area of surface low pressure will move through the region Sunday
night through Monday night. This feature will bring the first round
of showers for the week. The overall pattern will remain unsettled
as an upper trough digs into most of the central U.S. The trough
will deepen further by Friday. Tuesday through Saturday will have
periodic bouts of showers from the shortwaves traveling within the
upper trough. The trough will also let cooler air dive into the
Dakotas. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s through the
end of the week. Cooler lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s will also
cause some of the overnight showers to fall as light snow or a mix
of rain and snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and




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