Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 022341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
641 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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