Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 050250 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TNT. ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY
FALLING APART NOW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP OVER ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC GOING
POST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. UPDATES ISSUED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK


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