Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 150534 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1134 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 824 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Added in some iso`d flurries, mainly for the eastern half of
forecast zones, per radar, obs and a brief step outside. Still
quite breezy, so the blowing snow mention will remain in the
forecast. At this time, no plans to meddle with the overnight low
temperature forecast. Temperatures continue to steadily drop on
strong caa northerly winds, so won`t be long before wind chills
are falling into that -25F to -40F range. Current wind chill
headlines continue.

UPDATE Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The more widespread snow from earlier today has exited to our south,
although areas of snow showers remain across the area within the
cold air advection/steeper lapse rate environment that has moved in.
Will continue to see strong cold air advection through the nighttime
hours as winds stay breezy and gusty. Wind chill values will start
to tumble later tonight, with actual air temps and wind chills
bottoming out Monday morning. Decided to upgrade the northern CWA to
a Wind Chill Warning based on newest apparent T grids. Will leave
the southern CWA as an advisory. Made things simple and ran the
product as one hazard from 06Z tonight to 18Z Tuesday to avoid
confusion. Although, with the surface high settling overhead by
Tuesday morning, seems hard to justify having a wind chill
headline in place during that time, but will visit that later.
Regardless, even with a light wind, actual air temps around -20
will still create very cold wind chill values.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The extended period will start off bitterly cold, with a 1048+
surface high becoming centered over the CWA Tuesday morning. Lows in
the teens and 20s below zero will be common late Monday night/early
Tuesday morning, with wind chills well into advisory criteria, and
possibly warning criteria in some locations. Cold air will remain in
place Tuesday and Tuesday night before the high drops to the
southeast, and milder air returns during the mid to late part of the
week. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s Wednesday, then in the 30s
and 40s Thursday and Friday. Models continue to be in agreement that
a storm system will develop somewhere over the central part of the
country next weekend, but are all over the place with where.
Previous model runs brought precipitation to the Northern Plains,
while latest 12Z runs now keep precipitation south and east of the
region. Will stick with the small POPs that the in-house model blend
currently indicates for now for Saturday and Sunday. Cooler air
looks to return over the weekend as well, with highs mainly in the
upper teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Cold air advection stratus/strato-cu has diminished to scattered
coverage over the forecast area. At the moment, some of those
clouds are passing over KATY. Will probably continue to see iso`d
flurries/very light snow accompanying these areas of clouds. Model
guidance suggests more clouds will develop/move into the area from
northern Minnesota over the next 12 hours. The KABR TAF may need
an increase in cloudiness between now and mid-day Monday. Also,
the breezy/windy northerly winds will persist through Monday.
Could see some patchy blowing snow at times through Monday, too,
with some of the stronger wind gusts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ003>011-015>023.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn



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