Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 042326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND
CAPTURES THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN



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