Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 131723 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1123 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

No major changes expected. However, where mixing has been a
problem this morning, have dropped highs some, especially over the
northwest CWA. Will have to keep an eye on this area as temps have
struggled to climb from morning lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures into the area today
with highs reaching the upper 20s and lower 30s. Winds will be
rather gusty along and east of the James River valley where
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph will be possible. The winds, along
recent light snowfall, patchy blowing snow can be expected,
especially in open areas of the Glacial Lakes. While winds will
weaken tonight, hi-res models keep gusty winds going along the
eastern side of the Sisseton Hills through Wednesday morning. The
warmest 925 mb temps in the short term will occur tonight, mainly
after 0Z. Low temperatures tonight will range in the teens and low
20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The models have not deviated much from run to run for the Wednesday
through Monday forecast time period with respect to the upper level
flow and surface features. Wednesday continues to look like the
warmest day with west to southwest winds bringing in warmer air with
highs still expected to be around 40 to 45 degrees. The models still
then show an Arctic boundary pushing into the region later Wednesday
night and Thursday with highs in the mid teens to the lower 20s
expected. Bumped the winds up a little with this boundary. This
boundary along with upper level lift will also bring in decent
chances of light snow with little accumulation expected. An Arctic
high pressure area will then build southeast across the region
Thursday night into Friday as warmer west to southwest winds return
for Friday and Saturday. Highs are expected to be back into the mid
30s to the lower 40s for Saturday. The models then show another
upper level trough and surface Arctic front coming through Sunday
and Sunday night. The timing will affect Sunday`s highs as Monday is
expected to be back into the teens for highs. Light snow chances
also return again for Sunday night and Monday. The models do differ
on the upper level system affecting the region on Monday. The EC was
stronger with this system. With it being this far out, cannot put
much credence in this solution along with us having a tough time
getting much of any snow with these systems.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the taf valid period at all
terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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