Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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379
FXUS63 KABR 261752 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1252 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Updated the forecast this morning to remove pops over a good
portion of the western CWA. Light rain is trying to move into
Stanley and Jones counties, but with dry air above 850 mb, pcpn
will be delayed. Have allowed the dense fog advisory to expire at
15Z. Based on web-cams, the fog is confined to areas around
Summit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Stratus/drizzle/fog impacting the CWA, from the Missouri east, while
the western CWA is seeing high based showers. UNR radar has only
recently filled in, however are still reporting a 10kft ceiling.
Anticipate the status quo for most of the day with light low level
winds and the weakening wave aloft. There will also be a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the CWA today based on where the
status line ends up by evening.

Split flow pattern dominates conditions to end the weekend and start
next week with a storm track mostly south of the CWA. Temperatures
aloft won`t change much and the degree of cloud cover will
determine highs/lows.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Split flow aloft will dominate the pattern in the extended. Most of
the significant upper level energy and lift will remain south of the
region. However, all models do stretch some precip into the Dakotas
on Tuesday night/early Wed. Precip chances for the rest of the
period are uncertain due to model differences so stuck with
consensus pops. Temperatures are expected to be above average in the
extended with highs in the 50s and 60s. Temps will be affected by
any precip/cloud cover that moves into the region, however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

IFR/MVFR ceilings will become VFR at all locations through this
afternoon and tonight, except for ATY where they are expected to
hold in. Otherwise, there will be some light rain showers near the
PIR area this afternoon. There is also expected to be some fog
forming again at ATY and ABR tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr



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