Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250833
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OVERALL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE
WHICH ALSO FEATURES FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF A 100KT JET ENTRANCE
REGION. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES EAST...THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN PROBLEM
COMES FROM POOR CONSISTENCY BETWEEN CAM SOLUTIONS AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IN HANDLING THE OUTCOME OF THIS WAVE. LIKELY FACTORS ARE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND A LACK OF ANY SURFACE FOCUS MECHANISM UNDER
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. BEST CAPE/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO
CENTER AROUND KPIR TO K9V9 DESPITE HIGHER 700MB TEMPERATURES. EVEN
IF MLCAPE VALUES ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 1-2000 J/KG...0-6KT SHEAR IS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50KTS SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE SEVERE
THREAT.  THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT TONIGHT...SO EXPECT
STORMS TO WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT WITHOUT ANY
FEATURES ALOFT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED IN SCALE AND
SCOPE. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...PEAKING AROUND +13C. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
STILL RESULT IN SOME ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND...AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET SET UP
DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH 30-50 KTS OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...WILL
ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP...WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF +13C TO +17C...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HINDER
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS GOING IN
CASE THE MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH THESE TEMPERATURES. THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS OUT WEST COULD AFFECT
PIR AND MBG TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN


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