Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 272014
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

CAMS continue to support the forecast for isolated to scattered weak
diabatically driven convection, with NAM BUFKIT soundings suggesting
these will remain relatively high based at 8kft, though shallow
enough that it will be difficult to reach the hail growth region,
which will limit lightning generation. Bases are at/above the 0C
line, so there may be some sublimation processes out of falling
precipitation which could add to the gustiness of the convective
showers.

There is a more evident wave in northern North Dakota pivoting
around the upper circulation across central Canada, and this moves in
this evening, so some shower activity may linger past sunset.

Sunday and Monday will be similar to today, with cool mid level
temperatures and steep low level lapse rates. Mixed winds are
sustained around 20mph so again it will be breezy to windy.
Convection will again be shallow but will continue to mention
thunder, along with the potential for accelerated stronger winds
with the best cells Sunday. Temperatures will be a tad cooler Monday
with a much shallower unstable layer.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A deep upper trough with embedded shortwave activity will slowly
exit to the east on Tuesday. Weak ridging will build in by the end
of the work week, but it looks like there will still be a few ridge
riders adding to the energy of weak sfc low pressure to the south.

At the sfc, this means a mostly dry forecast with some slight chance
to low chance pops when instability increases in the afternoons and
evenings. Temperatures will climb under the ridge and top out near
80 Thursday through Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty southwest
winds today will diminish overnight then become gusty out of the
northwest Sunday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise


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