Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 112101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
301 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 259 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

A weak shortwave is currently crossing the region with light snow
ongoing over western SD. This system will continue progressing
eastward through this evening with accumulating snowfall in the
southwest portion of this CWA. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
will be possible, mainly along and south of Highway 14. Later
tonight, a clipper system will pass northeast of the region. This
system will bring increasing west-northwest winds which should
cause patchy to areas of blowing and drifting snow, especially in
northeastern SD by 12Z Thursday. With wind chill values falling to
-20 to -35 between 6-18Z Thursday, will issue a wind chill adv for
north central and northeastern SD. With an Arctic high pressure
building over the region on Thursday, winds should fall below 10
mph with wind chills improving by 18Z. However with the Arctic
high pressure over head Thursday night, low temperatures should
plummet to -15 to -25 degrees below zero. Return flow does develop
on the backside of the high, but likely too late in the night to
make much of a difference. The combination of bitter cold
temperatures and light winds will produce wind chills of -25 to
-35 degrees below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Overall the long term models are in lock step with each other during
the extended forecast. A split flow scenario appears to set up over
the western CONUS early in the period, with a significant mid level
low expected to drop into the southwest CONUS.  That cut off will
probably eject into the central CONUS early next week. For now, most
of the precipitation associated with that system is expected to stay
south and east of the CWA. A weak system on Friday may bring some
light snow to the area, otherwise most of the long term is looking
dry. The recent cold air mass over the region should get replaced by
a warmer one, particularly aloft.  With a fairly widespread snowpack
over the region, and perhaps a lack of any real decent mixing, it
might be hard to take full advantage of the warmer airmass this
weekend and next week.  Some guidance has backed off on temperatures
next week, and this probably appropriate.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the valid taf period.


SD...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
     noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for SDZ003>011-015>021.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Thursday
     for MNZ039-046.



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