Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241949
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
249 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/TIMING ON THE NEW 12Z RUNS
BETWEEN THE HI-RES CAMS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS ENHANCED THE
EASTERN H5 SHORTWAVE SAT EVENING AND THEREFORE KEEPS A RATHER ROBUST
QPF FIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

STUCK WITH THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS THIS EVENING WHICH GENERATE SOME
STORMS WEST RIVER BY 0Z. WHILE CAPE IS UNDERWHELMING..LESS THAN 1000
J/KG ON THE RAP...UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z SAT SHEAR IS AROUND 45 TO 55
KTS AND CIN IS MINIMAL. THESE STORMS WILL NOT MIGRATE VERY FAR EAST
UNTIL CLOSER TO MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER CLOUDINESS MAY HAMPER INITIAL
RE-DEVELOPMENT SAT AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SHEAR IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME
SEVERE.

MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THERE IS AN
APPROACHING SFC LOW AND SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUNDAY EVENING
THAT MAY FIRE OFF A FEW STORMS BUT MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON
PLACEMENT WITH SOME KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCE OUT OF THIS CWA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 12 C TO 16 C
WILL KEEP A CAP ON MOST CONVECTION. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
WILL THEN BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE ON THE RISE BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT...THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KPIR TAF SITE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR



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