Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180558 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1258 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING WAA
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. A 20 TO 35 KNOT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 6Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND PUSH EAST
BY MORNING. A FEW MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SMALL AREAS OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT FOR
COORDINATION BUT KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE.

WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING
TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE CLIMO IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND DIRECTION NEAR THE SFC WILL LIMIT THE WARMING SLIGHTLY BUT
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ENOUGH TO MIX EFFICIENTLY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S IN THE EAST AND TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. COULD SEE
TRIMMING BACK POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA EVEN MORE BASED ON 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIP.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO...IN THE 60S CWA
WIDE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE REGION LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE SPLIT BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH ONE WAVE TO THE NORTH
AND ANOTHER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SOUTHERN WAVE TO BRING PRECIP TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA...BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE UNDER RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. MEANWHILE...A WEST COAST 500 MB
TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES. AT THIS
TIME...THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH AS COMPARED TO THE
GFS. EITHER WAY MODELS SHOW THE AVAILABILITY OF GULF MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM...AND DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT TRACKING
NORTHWARD COULD BE THE AREAS FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS. A LOT OF
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT CLEAR HOWEVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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