Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
315 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Mid level clouds responsible for some light returns an hour or so
ago, however these failed to penetrate much below 3kft. As such have
removed any mention of precipitation. This cloud deck also keeping fog
at bay. I`ll leave in the mention as Watertown and a few other
locations are close to saturation but this morning it shouldn`t be
as widespread an issue as it was the last two mornings.

Thus, anticipate mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures with highs
in the 50s. A lee low begins to develop so low level flow will
become more south/southeasterly across the forecast area, however
speeds are still light.

Models begin to bring in precipitation associated with the next wave
early Tuesday. The general trend with this system mimics the last
two as split flow favors a track south of the CWA and thus
precipitation west river will be fighting dry air and a lack of
support as it moves east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The pattern of split flow aloft will continue in the extended with
all significant upper lows getting pulled into the southern stream.
Only one sfc low even skirts the western part of the cwa on
Wednesday night. So, the extended looks pretty dry in terms of
widespread precip chances. High pressure will periodically traverse
the region, though, and may bring some lower clouds or fog.
Temperatures are expected to be above average with highs in the 50s
to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

MVFR/IFR cigs will gradually redevelop and make their way back to
the west toward KATY overnight. Meanwhile, MVFR fog is possible just
about anywhere overnight given high amount of llm and light winds.
Improvement in vsbys and cigs is expected Monday morning.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
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