Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 111126 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

The region will see increasing southerly winds today as the pressure
gradient tightens between the departing surface high and approaching
cold front. Warmer temps aloft spread across the area as well, which
will allow temps to climb into the 60s and 70s across the CWA. With
a rather dry air mass still in place, the gusty winds and lowering
RH will bring heightened fire danger, especially for western areas.

Southerly winds will stay up during the overnight hours which will
keep lows in the 40s for most areas. The cold front eventually moves
through on Thursday, but we will still see a mild southerly flow
ahead of the front. Temps will peak in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees for the eastern CWA before the frontal passage. Cooler temps
are in store for Friday as the air mass cools behind the cold front.
Highs will drop back down into the 50s. A weak disturbance aloft
passing through may bring a few light showers Friday morning.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

The region will be under upper level southwest flow on the east side
of a broad trough to start the extended period. This trough looks to
track across the Northern Plains Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night, with northwest flow then setting up for the remainder of the
period. At the surface, high pressure over the area Friday night
will get pushed northeast on Saturday as a low pressure system
tracks from southeastern Colorado to the Great Lakes by Sunday
morning. An inverted trough associated with this system will slide
across portions of the Dakotas and looks to be the focus for
precipitation Saturday into Saturday night. The precipitation will
be mainly rain, but temperatures cool enough late Saturday night
that there could be some snowflakes mixed in. High pressure settles
in behind the exiting system, with dry conditions expected Monday
and Tuesday.

High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday and
Sunday, then look for a warm up with highs in the 60s Monday and
Tuesday. Overnight lows in the 30s during the first half of the
period will warm slightly to lows in the lower to mid 40s Monday
night and Tuesday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
Southerly winds in the 15 to 30 knot range can be expected this
morning into the early evening hours.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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