Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 150333 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
933 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
NOW SEEING SOME WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR MOVING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL POP FOR A
POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. PATCHY FOG REMAINS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AS WELL. THE REST OF THE CWA IS BASICALLY
QUIET AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS
OR TEMPERATURES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST ON THE EDGE OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG STILL PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER...SO DID EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM...AT WHICH TIME
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION. PATCHY FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL THE DENSE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

THE FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE VERY
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
LOW CIRCULATION IS NOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING OUT OF CENTRAL
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS ARE FINALLY IN BETTER CONSENSUS...AND
HAVE STUCK WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION TO QPF. WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH THE CWA WILL UNDER PERSISTENT COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS...WHILE WARM MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP.
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST 1-2
KM INITIALLY...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WHEN THE FORCING DOES GET HERE IT IS NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL...HOWEVER
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE
700-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS GIVES AN OK
SHOT AT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE I29 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SIOUX
FALLS AND WATERTOWN...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR DUEL
COUNTY...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG I90 AND
SOUTHWARD. THE BOOTHEEL OF LYMAN COUNTY COULD GET UP TO 4 INCHES.
THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION PRECEDING SNOWFALL...THEN COMBINED WITH
20 TO 30 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS MONDAY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES EXPECTED
TO SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM. THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SEEMS TO WANNA REFLECT A SPLIT
FLOWISH LOOK WITH SLOW PROGRESSION...WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER BEING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THAT SPLIT FLOW.
SO OVERALL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT LL FLOW OFF A CANADIAN SFC HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR...AFFECTING KATY. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEGINNING AS A
POSSIBLE MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT SNOW...THEN
SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WATERTOWN TO PIERRE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR BUFFALO-JONES-
     LYMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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