Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE NORTHLAND WAS PRECIP FREE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
AT LEAST 500MB TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST AGAIN TODAY AND
WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THE PROBLEM REMAINS WHERE TO
HIGHLIGHT POPS. THERE WAS A WEAK WAVE THAT THE MODELS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT ITS TRACK DOES NOT ADD MUCH
CERTAINTY TO THE POP FORECAST ATTM. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER
SLOW MOVING AGAIN. WE HAVE A MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND UPDATES TO
HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN AREA WILL BE NEEDED AND IS A VERY SHORT TERM
FORECAST ISSUE. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. A LIGHT FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FOG POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY TOWARD WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS BETTER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SHEAR THROUGH 00Z IS STILL RATHER LOW
THOUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
LAKESIDE AREAS MAY EVEN SEE THE WIND TURN SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MINN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. LATEST GFS BUFR
SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE PATCHY FOG AFT 09Z...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
WILL BE MINIMAL SO HAVE HANDLED WITH VICINITY SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT KINL KHIB AND KBRD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  54  79  58 /  10  10  20  60
INL  80  54  81  58 /  20  20  40  60
BRD  80  55  81  60 /  20  20  20  60
HYR  78  52  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
ASX  74  50  79  57 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING


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