Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 111215
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
715 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARROWHEAD HAVE ALSO WARMED ABOVE FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE
FROST ADVISORY. I FULLY EXPECT A NEW ADVISORY/WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S. THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD HAS ONLY JUST COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
STAYED DOWN IN THE MID 30S THERE. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY OVER THE WEST...BUT LEFT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ST.
LOUIS COUNTY AND EAST. IN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS EXPECT TO BE ABLE
TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY IN ITS ENTIRETY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

MUCH QUIETER IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW
WELL OFF TO THE EAST MOVING INTO QUEBEC.  WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH NORTH
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE FLOW HAS RETURNED
TO WESTERLIES WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER
QUEBEC WEST TO MONTANA.  THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN AREA OF MID
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.  IN
FACT...THESE CLOUDS HAVE PUT THE BRAKES ON WHAT HAD BEEN AN
IMPRESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  MUCH
OF THE ARROWHEAD HAS FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S...BUT WHERE THE CLOUDS
MOVE IN TEMPS POP BACK UP INTO THE 40S.  STILL...WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET SOME UPPER 20S MIN TEMPS OUT OF THE COOPS IN THAT
AREA.

TODAY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND AFTER THEY CLEAR WE WILL GET SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON.  WE MAY EVEN GET SOME
SHOWERS OUT OF IT...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME VERY SMALL POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.  STILL...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY DESPITE A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS SHOULD RAPIDLY FALL APART...AND WE
SHOULD GET CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THUS...EXPECT A VERY CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MINS IN THE 30S EVERYWHERE...WITH A FEW UPPER
20S. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST NEARLY
EVERYWHERE. EXPECT TO NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRE AND ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT CLOUD COVER BEFORE WE DETERMINE WHERE THESE
HEADLINES NEED TO BE.

FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT SOME
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE THIS HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SOUTH.  THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND LIMITED
THEM TO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE
50S...BUT HOPEFULLY WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE WILL NOT FEEL QUITE SO
CHILLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

A LONG WAVE TROF WILL CROSS OVER THE FA AND REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE WILL EB JUST ENOUGH FORCING OVER THE
FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FA FOR SOME LOW POPS PRIOR TO 06Z.
SFC/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA BEHIND IT. WITH SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING...THIS MAY PRECLUDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
REGARDLESS...HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MEAN RH/SUGGESTED CLOUD COVER ALSO PLAY
INTO FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FROST POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES. SFC/UPPER RIDGE MOVES E OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS
ALLOWS A WAA REGIME TO EMERGE...BUT A BIT WEAK. SATURDAY NIGHT FINDS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WAA
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE TROF WHILE A SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NEAR LAKE OF
THE WOODS BY 12Z SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES. THE SFC LOW REACHES NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MONDAY.
IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE FA MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TROF IS LACKING MOISTURE
AND ONLY HAVE SMALL POPS FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS. SFC RIDGING AFFECTS
THE FA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BIT STRONGER WAA IS
EXPECTED AND WARMER MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE THE RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES NEARBY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  38  54  37 /  10  10  10  10
INL  52  28  55  32 /  30  10  10  10
BRD  55  35  55  34 /  20   0  10  10
HYR  54  31  55  31 /  10  10  20  10
ASX  52  35  55  36 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






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