Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 272022
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Convection this evening and if we get anything on Sunday will be
the main challenge for the period.

Strong upper level trough currently moving through the Red River
Valley, and with destabilization across the southern counties some
severe cells have developed. Isolated severe cells have been
pulsing up and down and 1 to 2 inch hail was reported at Fargo.
Think there should be at least a small severe threat for the next
few hours as 1500 J/kg of CAPE along with 30 to 35 kts of deep
layer shear continue over the south CWA continues through sunset.
Some weaker cells have also been developing over the northern Red
River Valley, and with weaker shear and instability expecting
mostly moderate to heavy rain. The convection should push eastward
through the rest of the evening and think we should be drying out
by 02Z or so.

Later tonight will be quiet as the upper trough moves off into
Ontario. The main surface trough will be further west and
southerly winds will continue over most of the CWA. With clearing
skies and recent rains there could be a fog threat, but think that
the southerly winds will keep too much from forming. Some stratus
moving into the southeastern counties is not out of the question
though so bumped up clouds a bit tomorrow morning. Lows tonight
should stay mainly in the 50s, and with southerly winds and less
clouds and precip temps should get into the 80s for Sunday. With
the warm temps the instability tomorrow should be even greater
than today, and deep layer bulk shear is still up the the 30 to 45
kt range. However, upper support on Sunday will not nearly be as
good with ridging building overhead and only a possible weak
embedded vort to set things off. Better chances into Sunday night
as low level jet sets up over the eastern CWA and a cold front
pushes through Thus just have some low POPs Sunday afternoon with
better chances Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Monday and Tuesday...A cold front should be mostly through the
area but a few lingering showers and storms could be in the
eastern counties at the start of the period. The boundary should
be to our south and east by Tuesday and conditions will remain
dry. The front will also help knock temps back from the 80s on
Monday to upper 70s to near 80 on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday...Upper ridge will start to build in
for mid week, although a low chance for precip remains with weak
embedded shortwaves and some warm air advection. However, the more
significant chances for precip will hold off until Friday and
Saturday as the upper ridge moves off the east and flow becomes
more southwesterly. Temps throughout the period will be above
seasonal averages.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Included TSRA or VCTS at all but KDVL as current band of showers
and storms oriented southwest to northeast across the forecast
area continues to redevelop. Think that the threat of
thunderstorms will hang on through the rest of the afternoon
before ending early evening. Some spots near the storms have seen
reductions in ceilings to MVFR or even IFR conditions, but think
this should be short lived and all sites will be VFR by late
afternoon or early evening. After some clearing, there is the
possibility of some stratus moving back into the area as south
winds lift moisture northward. Most of the model solutions keep
this south and east of the TAF sites so will leave out for now but
keep an eye on things overnight. South winds should keep it mixed
enough to prevent fog formation overnight, and will increase to
the 10 to 15 kt range by the end of the period.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR


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