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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN PUSHING EAST FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN NEAR TERM WIND...PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WITH PCPN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL USE
MODEL BLEND/PERSISTENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WINDS CONTINUE TO REV THROUGH THE VALLEY HOWEVER
AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT SLATED
TIME. OTHERWISE APPROACHING DRY WEDGE WILL LIMIT ANY AM PCPN TO
AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY AND SHOULD CLEAR FA BY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY PASSAGE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXED
LAYER TO AROUND 800MB AND 30KTS THROUGH LAYER. AT THIS POINT FEEL
IT WILL BE WINDY HOWEVER BLO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. COLUMN DOES COOL
TODAY HOWEVER WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SOLAR AND WARM START SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.

MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT
EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ALL
DIFFER ON PCPN POT ENTAIL ALONG TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY. AMERICAN
MODELS GENERALLY DRY WHILE GEM/ECMWF PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
WILL NOT ALTER POPS MUCH. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AM OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY UNDER 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING 500MB
CUTOFF LOW BY THURSDAY WITH PCPN AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW WRAPS ENOUGH COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN CONFINED TO SE 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FA
BY LATE MORNING. ALL CIGS VFR AND CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST. SE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER