Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 272342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Main challenge for tonight will be winds associated with showers
as shower activity itself reasonably covered with inherited
forecast. Did bump up POPs for showers likely across NE NODAK and
change wording to scattered showers, more in the 30 to 50 per
cent range with latest update. Also re-ran wind gusts and will
likely need to increase sustained winds ahead of showers in NE
NODAK to get gusts up to 50 mph. Covering this with GraphicsCast
as no lightning being reported from this activity.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Looking at more of the same for tonight into Sunday. The biggest
change will probably be temperatures, which will be a little
cooler by Sunday. Showers and isolated thunder have developed this
afternoon as expected, and they will continue tonight into Sunday.
Trends seem to favor a bit more pcpn development around the mid
level short wave, which is moving from southeast Saskatchewan
toward northwest and north central ND right now. This short wave
will track into the Devils Lake region by early evening, then into
the Red River Valley by late evening. Otherwise there will be
other development outside of this, but more isolated to scattered
in nature. Any shower has the potential to produce rainfall
amounts around a quarter inch, but it could also produce brief
wind gusts to 40 mph.

There has been some lightning and minimal CAPE across the area,
but nothing too much. Any thunder threat should subside by early
evening, leaving just the showers thereafter. By morning, most of
the activity should have shifted into Minnesota, but there could
still be something lingering along the Canadian border. Then
additional development will occur with the heating of the day
Sunday. The gusty winds will diminish this evening, remain lower
overnight, then pick up again on Sunday, this time being even
stronger than today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Chances for storms will dissipate Sunday night, as effective shear
and instability weaken and forcing from one upper level impulse
moves out. The strong upper low, currently in Manitoba, moves into
northern Minnesota Sunday night and works gradually into the Great
Lakes region on Monday. As several weak impulses push around the
upper level system Sunday night through Monday night, breezy and
cloudy conditions and chances for scattered light showers will
continue. Cloudy skies, close proximity to the upper low, and breezy
northwest flow will make for a cool day Monday, with highs only
reaching the 50s to maybe 60 degrees and lows in the 40s Monday
night. Rain chances will decrease significantly from Monday night
into Tuesday but cannot quite rule out a few stray showers during
the day Tuesday.

For Tuesday evening through Thursday night, a blocking ridge moves
in from the west. This ridge, combined with drier northwest flow,
will allow for a few dry periods and a much nicer second half of the
week. After high pressure moves through western North Dakota and
eastern South Dakota Wednesday, the return of southerly flow at
lower levels combined with a ridge building in will allow for warmer
air to move back in. The second half of the week will have more
pleasant weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures,
and no foreseeable rain chances until at least the Thursday night to
Friday night time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Band of showers will move across region this evening and bring
VFR cigs but very gusty winds ahead of the main band of showers
going through DVL at TAF issuance time. Expect winds up to 50 mph
with rain shower. Winds to shift more westerly to northwesterly
behind trough. Winds will subside near morning but gusty NW winds
return to N Cntrl / NE NODAK tomorrow afternoon.




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