Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Weak surface boundary across northwest MN, generally from Lake of
the Woods to the far southern valley at the present time,
continues to be progged to shift slightly north in area that has
seen some solar today...with convection initiating around 22Z.
Mixed layer capes have increased to over 500 J/Kg along this
mostly sunny area...and it seems reasonable to see some activity
later in the afternoon as the HRRR has been advertising. Will
increase chances for convection across the mid valley for
afternoon...with majority of area having chance POPs by 23Z.

UPDATE Issued at 917 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

No planned changes to ongoing forecast. However, HRRR is now
initiating convection along inverted trough/sfc boundary which shifts
slightly north...along a Warroad to Hillsboro to Lisbon line. This
is our area of lowest POPs. Will continue to monitor HI-RES models
and SPC mesoanalysis for this area, may need to increase POPs
across the central valley on 1 PM forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Added some fog to northern areas this morning based on current
VSBY. No other changes made.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Challenging forecast ahead mainly with pcpn potential through the
holiday weekend. Main feature of interest will be an upper low
over the central/southern plains which will slowly eject NE
through the weekend.

For today two areas to watch for potential. First will be any SHRA associated
with upper low over SW MB. Guidance mainly keeps pcpn north of the
border however could see a few showers clip the far N-NW fa so
maintained low pops there. Better chances for rain will be across
the SE FA as an impulse ejecting from the central plains upper low
lifts NE. Best low level forcing will be to our S-SE however a
weak boundary currently bisecting the FA from NE-SW will likely
move little today and combined with upper impulse cannot rule out
potential for pcpn along and south of boundary. Convective
parameters marginal for T but again cannot rule it out.
Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover but should be able to get
into the low-mid 70s most areas.

Any diurnally driven pcpn should diminish during the evening as
wave lifts out to the NE and low level forcing remains weak. Will
maintain chance pops but may likely be too widespread.

Central plains upper low lifts NE Saturday. Again best forcing
will be to out S-SE however the SE FA will be on the northern
fringe of pcpn shield so have higher pops there. Plenty of
uncertainty to the NW and most areas may end up dry. High temperatures
will again hinge on sky cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Rain chances will likely be confined to the eastern Fa as remnant
upper low lifts into the Mn arrowhead by morning. Thunder chance
continue to look minimal.

Upper low lifts NE with mid level flow becoming more zonal. This
for the most part should bring dry conditions for the remainder of
the holiday weekend. With more solar anticipated should see
temperatures more on the mid-upper end of the 70s.

Memorial Monday to Thursday night time period will revolve around
the timing and speed of a rather potent short wave system progged to
move across the FA mid week. Ahead of this feature low level thermal
axis and the warmest day of the week with max temps on Monday in the
upper 70s to low 80s with 500mb ridging ahead of aforementioned
wave. The 00Z EC run continues to be faster with short wave energy
bringing pcpn into the FA by late Monday night into Tuesday whereas
the 00Z GFS remains slower with PCPN holding off until Tuesday
morning west and afternoon east. The wave brings down cooler air on
the backside with temps on wednesday most likely stuck in the 60s
with chances of light rain showers lingering.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Expect mainly VFR conditions through the evening but some model
guidance does suggest lower ceilings for a time Saturday morning.
Winds will be near or below 10 kts through the period. Greatest
degree of uncertainty still is with precip chances. Will
include VCSH at all sites excluding KDVL given low confidence in
timing and will not mention thunder at this time and will amend as
needed as confidence increases.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Makowski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.