Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160348
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

A bit more cloud cover has moved into the southern and eastern
counties on the front side of the surface high than expected.
Still think we will see some clearing out by morning, but bumped
up clouds and raised temperatures just a bit in that area. Wind
chills in the eastern and southern tier of the warning may only
get right to or just above criteria. However, even with borderline
wind chills it will still be extremely cold and there is always
the chance of a larger drop off than expected when clouds clear.
Will keep the headlines as we have them going.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

The Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing/Drifting Snow was extended
thru 00z. Suspended snow continues to plague the central RRV
corridor with visibilities vacillating between 1/4 to 3/4 mile
from the Canadian border down through the F-M area. Some slight
weakening in the winds is starting to show, with a slow
improvement expected throughout the late afternoon.

Have extended the Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories into Tuesday
forenoon. Satellite imagery shows generally fair skies above the
blowing snows of the RRV and eastern ND... with patchy low clouds
expected to continue scattering out of west-central MN through
the late afternoon. Meanwhile... the 1050+ surface high pressure
up over the southern Manitoba lakes country will steadily
infiltrate the area overnight into early Tuesday morning. Temps
under this cold dome ran from -25 to -30F last night in Manitoba
and should have similar density qualities yet tonight as it hits
the central red River Valley. Thus we can expect lesser winds
overnight but much colder overnight temperatures...producing
similar wind chill effects tonight into early Tuesday.

Tuesday will see fair skies over the area and a light westerly
winds becoming light and variable. Temperatures will start our
quite cold, but recover most quickly on the higher elevation edges
of the Red River Basin in eastern ND and northwest MN (treed areas
most quickly), and linger below zero across much of the central
Red River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Weather impacts in the extended period continue to be minor with
relatively quiet weather. Tuesday night southerly winds will lead to
the beginning of a warm up that will last through Saturday. A
surface low will track to our north on Wednesday bringing with it a
chance for some light snow and gusty winds. In eastern North Dakota
the winds are expected to be higher with some gusts up to 30 mph.
The snow chances will be closer to the surface low near the Canadian
border.

Temperatures Wednesday through Saturday will be warmer with highs in
the 20s and 30s. There is another chance for some light mixed
precipitation on Friday and while the GFS and ECMWF are consistent
on timing and placement QPF is different. Looking to ensembles, most
GEFS plumes keep the QPF on the low end despite a few plumes with
high totals. With the warmer temperatures on Friday p-type will be a
concern. BUFKIT GFS soundings show a variety of p-types with
temperatures near freezing at the surface. Looking forward, a
stronger system moves into the Upper Midwest early next week but
currently looks to stay to our southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Blowing snow continues to reduce visibilities to 1 to 4 miles in
the Red River Valley airports, but think there should be
improvement in the next few hours as winds start to die down. Some
MVFR ceilings in the KBJI area will also move out, and all sites
should be VFR by late evening. The VFR conditions will remain
for the rest of the period. Winds will diminish below 12 kts,
eventually shifting around to the southwest by tomorrow
afternoon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ006-009-016-
     017-023-024-028-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JR


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