Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
943 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Clearing has continued to progress southward, with only a few
patches of thicker clouds still hanging around Bemidji and Park
Rapids. Expect these to be out of the area in the next hour.
Otherwise there is some higher level cloud cover spreading into
the western FA. Still thinking there could be some patchy fog
around, but the cirrus moving in keeps some doubt. Therefore will
continue to monitor obs and cloud trends for now.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Cloud cover the main issue for tonight. Stratocu and 925-850 mb
moisture covers the area, but there are holes in the clouds and a
continued trend in clearing from the north into NE ND and also
noted is thinning of clouds in cntrl ND. All in all will play it
conservative with clearing but do allow at least for some. Blended
with neighboring offices for sky cover. Temps tonight 30-33 range
in most areas. Could be a bit lower if clear for longer periods.
Fog was persistent under the sfc high in Saskatchewan today and
with high pressure axis moving into cntrl ND late tonight risk of
fog there for cntrl ND with main threat appearing to be just west
and southwest of the fcst area. But something to watch esp if
skies clear out a lot more than think.

Various short term models indicate some visibilities lowering in
fog in that Minot to Jamestown-Bismarck area.

Monday will see some high level cloud cover. Sfc high moves into
northern Minnesota with light winds there Monday while winds turn
southeast and increase to 15-20 kts in E ND.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Forecast for the extended time frame trends from a high confidence
to start to low confidence by the end of the week. Monday night into
Tuesday will see rain chances increase from south to north with
increasing PWats as slow moving short wave traverses across the
central plains. Rain may linger Wednesday in the eastern areas.
Rainfall totals in the southern valley are most likely going to
range from a quarter to a half inch. A mostly dry period is forecast
through the rest of the work week with model solns differing on
timing and strength of the next wave sometime Friday or Saturday.
Will keep the chance PoPs this weekend. Temperatures for the period
will be around end of October normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

KDVL and KGFK have cleared now with light winds. If the clearing
progresses as expected, it should clear the remaining TAF sites in
the next 1 to 3 hours. After that the light winds will continue
through most of the remaining TAF period. But with light winds and
clear skies, fog could develop over portions of the FA. Do not
have a good handle on fog at this point, so will continue to
monitor sky cover for now. If fog trends can be determined better
can always amend or add with later updates.




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