Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD. WEAKENING ECHOES CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE E-NE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA AND MADE MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE LOW ALONG N CENTRAL
ND/CANADIAN BORDER TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE THIS AFTERNOON. E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA SHOULD ALSO LIFT NORTH INTO S CANADA. N-S PREFRONTAL TROUGH
FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHOULD BE OVERTAKEN BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM N CENTRAL INTO SW ND BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NSSL WRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL FOLLOW
IN THE NEAR TERM. NSSL WRF SHOWS RATHER UNORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT
MID AFTERNOON AND WITH SOME RECOVERY IN INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAIN BAND
ORGANIZES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WITH MAIN BAND
OVER NE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER SW CELLS MORE ISOLATED. AS WAVE
LIFTS INTO CANADA WILL SEE A BREAK BEHIND THE RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND WILL ADJUST AT FURTHER UPDATES. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE... BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP DURING THE 20 TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. KEPT MENTION AS VCTS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A STORM WILL
IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AND THE NEXT ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH DURING
THE 04 TO 09Z TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER 25 KTS. KEPT CIGS IN THE 2500-
3500 FT RANGE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
ANYTHING LOWER FORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR



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