Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212359
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Upper level ridge over the High Plains of MT and WY will shift
into the western Dakotas by morning. Coolest temps are expected
in the eastern zones by morning. Tweaked winds and sky for
tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

High pressure continues to gradually make its way across southern
Manitoba and towards northern Minnesota. As the center of the high
gets closer, winds will continue to decrease late this afternoon and
into this evening while turning more to the south/southeast. The
weaker winds won`t last long, though, as the pressure gradient
quickly tightens as the high shifts off towards the Great Lakes.
Clouds will also return, spreading from west to east across the area
overnight. All in all, the main concern for tonight will be just how
low temperatures can get, especially across the far east, closest to
the center of the high (longest period of light winds and the last
area to see clouds). Did trend towards the lower end of guidance for
this area, with readings down into the single digits expected,
possibly nearing the zero mark. The remainder of the area will also
see readings well below normal (upper single digits into the teens)
but will be dependent upon how quickly clouds fill back in and winds
increase again.

The next warming trend begins Wednesday as breezy
south/southeasterly surface flow returns and starts to pull down
some warmer 925/850 mb air. Models still depict some small chances
for light snow or a rain/snow mix Wednesday afternoon but have
been trending drier and drier with no real impacts expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The long term period begins with the models showing decent agreement
with an upper level ridge over the CONUS gradually shifting east and
setting up SW flow by noon Thursday...which evolves into a split
flow pattern in the Fri-Mon timeframe. ECMWF is faster than GFS
in bringing associated upper low across the srn plains Fri-Sat and
lifting it into the Grt Lks by Sun. By Sun-Mon, attn turns to
northern stream of energy bringing an upper wave out of MT and
into the valley region Sun night into Mon.

For precipitation, the best chance for precipitation in the long
term will be with warm advection into the southern zones Thu night
into Fri morning. However sfc winds shift around to the north aft
06Z Fri and the drier air has pushed ECMWF/GFS POPs south of the
region. Blended solution still showing 30/40 POPs across the
south. Did populate ProbIcePresent from 06Z to 18Z Fri and limit
liq precip to drizzle given the dry mid layer from the northerly
flow...thus getting mainly light snow or drizzle for Fri morning
per dry 875 to 500 mb level on latest soundings for 15Z Fri.

Saturday should be dry with Fri/Sun having sporadic low POPs from
model blends, but no strong signal for significant precip given the
upper lvl pattern. Higher chances of precip return early next
week as the upper wave translates along the intl border Sun-
Tue...with p-type being very dependent on near sfc temps as
daytime highs will be in the 40s with overnight lows in the low
30s for the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Mostly VFR conditions were across the area under a mostly clear
sky. Patchy MVFR cigs were over the southwest zones in a cumulus
field. Cumulus field was moving to the southwest about 15 knots.
Expect VFR conditions for tonight and Wed for much of the area.
However isolated MVFR cigs may be possible over the Devils Lake
basin for Wed afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JH


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