Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Upstream band of shra propagating east about on schedule so
current timing of pops looks good. Temperatures also in line so no
update necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

No changes this update period. Will be monitoring upstream clouds
and showers moving across western ND this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Forecast challenge for tonight will be timing/magnitude of rain
showers currently over eastern MT. For remainder of aftn, cu field
over south expected to dissipate by mid evening with loss of
solar. For placement of precip, most hi-res models showing band of
showers move into DVL area aft midnight tonight and into northern
valley by the 09Z to 12Z timeframe. Decent warm advection
overnight will keep overnight lows in the upper 40s with
associated showers generally across srn MB and NE ND. The higher
res models are washing out the southern extent of the band of
showers prior to reaching Valley City and southeastern ND
zones. With general agreement between these model trends for
POPs, elected to use time lagged CONSSHORT for guidance. Best
chance for rain showers will be north of Hwy 2 along intl border
between Turtle Mtns and Hallock...with decreasing chances as
activity moves into NW MN tomorrow aftn. Winds expected to be
breezy ahead of H850 wind shift with sfc boundary not moving
across until Thu night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The period will start out with a 500mb low over southeast
Saskatchewan. This low will slowly track east-southeast, reaching
the western Great Lakes by 00Z Tuesday. 500mb temps around the mid
level low will stay minus 20C and below, resulting in morning sun
with afternoon and early evening convective showers possible. There
may even be a possibility of some rumbles of thunder, but overall
the thunder threat appears low at this point. As the low does move
into the Great Lakes, the flow shifts back to the northwest. Still
looking at some lingering showers early Tuesday, then dry by later
Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be some slight ups and downs with
temperatures, but overall it continues to look below normal. Most
models show Monday into Monday night being the coolest, with 850mb
temps either side of zero.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions expected for much of the upcoming forecast period.
A slight potential for brief MVFR cigs with some spotty shra
moving through the DVL area aft midnight although confidence low.




SHORT TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.