Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 121532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
932 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Issued at 928 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Arctic high pressure is the dominate feature today with impacts
confined to cold temperatures and wind chill values. Will see a
slow a steady rise to temperatures through the day and even into
the evening as mixing increases. Temps may steady off this evening
before rising overnight with increasing winds and clouds. No
changes needed to the forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

High pressure over eastern MT resulting in NW sfc flow over valley
and adjacent regions. High shifts over southern valley by noontime
and winds will begin shifting to SW...allowing some warm advection
across far south to bring aftn highs above zero...but the cold
start with morning lows in the teens below will limit northern
two-thirds of CWA to sub-zero highs. Wind chill advisory remains
in effect through late morning...but high moving south of area
will decrease winds enough for apparent temps to rise above
threshold values.

Warm advection increases overnight as winds turn southerly...and
overnight lows should remain above zero in southeastern ND and
west central MN...and ranging from 0 to 10 below across northeast
ND and NW MN. Forcing is rather weak and moisture is limited...but
should see some light snow across west central MN and possibly
into SE ND aft midnight. Minor accumulations with negligible
impacts are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Tuesday through Thursday...The start of the period looks fairly
quiet, with a weak northern branch shortwave moving off to the east
and southwest winds at the surface bringing in some warmer air. The
warming trend will continue into Wednesday as winds shift from the
southwest to the west ahead of a cold front dropping down out of
Canada. Temps should warm to near or above the freezing mark on
Wednesday. At this point it seems that the bulk of the precipitation
will be along or behind the cold front Wednesday night. Will
continue to keep mainly snow, although some minor variations in
precip type will be possible depending on the timing of the boundary
coming down. Winds will pick up with the cold air advection
Wednesday night, so increased speeds above the blended solution.
Snow chances will linger into Thursday with much colder

Friday through Sunday...Northwesterly flow aloft will set up, with
most model solutions have a clipper system moving through although
timing is all over the place. Will keep the blended solution`s low
POPs for Friday night. Better precip chances on Sunday as flow
become southwesterly again ahead of the next upper trough. Roller
coaster temperatures will climb back up Friday and Saturday before
dropping back below average for the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR with mid level clouds moving into valley region from SD late
evening and spreading north and east tonight. Early morning MVFR
cigs being reported at FAR are most likely a haze layer. Near sfc
winds from due north, with inversion to 7K, and likely scenario
is smoke plume, trapped under inversion, extending from Hillsboro
(near 3H4) toward vcnty FAR. FAR ATC reports being able to see
stars from tower but view over city looks hazy, supporting this


ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for NDZ006>008-

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MNZ001-002-



SHORT TERM...Speicher
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