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000
FXUS63 KFGF 081301
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE LIMITED BUT PER RADARS IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE ND/WCNTRL
MN EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND
MODELS INDICATE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW AND AROUND HALF INCH OR SO IN
WCNTRL MN WITH MORE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NE
ND/FAR NW MN. THUS WENT HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) IN WCNTRL MN
AND FAR SE ND TODAY WITH LOWER POPS FARTHER NORTH.

TEMPS WILL WARM TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A BIT MILDER AIR
COMING IN. EXPECT HIGHS TO GO ABOVE ZERO IN ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWESTERN FCST AREA. CURRENT WIND CHILL VALUES OF 30 TO 40
BELOW ZERO IN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA (NRN 2/3 OF FCST AREA)
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SO THAT BY 18Z AND THIS AFTN ALL AREAS WILL BE
OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL ADV
TIL 18Z BUT WILL NOT HOLD ON AFTER THAT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH THRU WRN SASK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO MONTANA/NW ND THIS AFTN AND THRU THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE MEANS MORE CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. COULD BE SOME
FLURRIES. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER IS QUESTIONABLE AS SOME CLEARING
MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF. WHEN TEMPS
DROP OFF...ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP OFF INTO ADV RANGE
AGAIN OVER MOSTLY WRN FCST AREA AFTER 06Z. BUT DEGREE OF CLEARING
AND TEMP DROP IN DOUBT AND PLUS WITH CURRENT ADVISORY OUT WILL LET
DAYSHIFT ISSUE A NEW ONE IF NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.



.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

FOR MON NIGHT A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THRU CNTRL
SASK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM. DID UP POPS A
LITTLE BUT NOT GO LIKELY QUITE YET AS SOME SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON PRECIP AREA.

THIS SHORT WAVE EXISTS TUESDAY ONLY TO MAKE WAY FOR YET ANOTHER
ONE WHICH IS DUE TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY EVE. BEHIND IT IS ANOTHER
COLD SHOT WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID -20S DEG C.
SO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SHOULD SEE SOME LOWS BACK IN THE -20F
RANGE ESP IN NW MN.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS PERIOD. HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO MODELS
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FLOW DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS
BECOME ESSENTIALLY OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FAST FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHORT
WAVES. UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY THU...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS. THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH COLD AIR THAN THE GFS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SURPRISING GIVEN THE ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL SOLUTION.

WILL CONTINUE TO REMOVE LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES.

TEMPS TWEAKED DOWN A DEGREE OR SO FOR WED AND UP TWO OR THREE
DEGREES FOR FRI FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

CONCERN TODAY IS TIMING THE LIGHT SNOW AND LOWERED VSBYS/CIGS.
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH ARE OF THE LOW END VFR RANGE AND
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS PSBL IN FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN UP TOWARD
BEMIDJI. THESE MVFR CIGS COULD REACH FARGO AS WELL BUT FOR NOW
KEPT VFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO FAR-BJI MID MORNING THEN
GFK-TVF LATE MORNING-NOON TIME AND DVL NOON OR EARLY AFTN. WENT
MVFR VSBYS 3-5SM...THOUGH A BIT LOWER FOR BEMIDJI.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST TONIGHT..GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE