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000
FXUS63 KFGF 081755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES AND WEDGE OF STABLE AIR VIA SPC OVER
WCNTRL MN INTO THE THE RRV AND SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF LIMITED TO
NO CU AS OF 1730Z IN THIS REGION. CU FIELD A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE
JUST WEST OF DVL TO JAMESTOWN TO OAKES AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FCST AREA. WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE RRV INTO WCNTRL MN
DID DROP POPS AND WENT DRY THIS AFTN-EVE FOR THIS REGION. KEPT 20
POP FAR WEST AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE CU A BIT MORE DEVELOPED AND
SOME WEAK CAPE EXISTS. TEMPS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS
ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO NO
PREFERENCES THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH BREEZY N/NW WINDS INCREASING
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW...BUT INSTABILITY
IS RATHER WEAK...UNDER 500 J/KG. SINCE WE DID HAVE SOME LOW
POPS...WILL LEAVE THEM IN BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT GET MEASURABLE
PRECIP TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...IT WILL BE A DRY AND COOL NIGHT.

ON WED...EXPECT A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL WITH RETURN FLOW
LATE IN THE WEST.

FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS MOISTURE INCREASES THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
INCREASE ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES THU NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT...AND EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT.
SPC DOES HAVE A SEE TEXT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
ON DAY 3...SO WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TRANSITION FROM ZONAL 500MB FLOW ON FRIDAY TO NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGING OCCURS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND 500MB BOWLING BALL PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DURING THE TRANSITION A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
BRING SOME THUNDER CHANCES TO THE AREA THOUGH NO STRONG SIGNALS IN
THE TIME FRAME TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SLGT TO CHC POPS
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BIG RESULT OF THE SUNDAY WAVE WILL BE THE
PROLONGED CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH DRY COOL AIR
USHERED INTO THE REGION SUNDAY PM. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
COOL ENOUGH BLYR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 4C...FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WILL STICK WITH 70S IN THE ALLBLEND BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL SOLNS FOR CONSISTENCY WRT TO THESE
PREDICTED COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

NW FLOW WILL MOVE MVFR CLOUDS VCNTY KBJI SOUTH OF AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME CELLULAR CU KDVL EAST THROUGH
THE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  EASING GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH
DECOUPLING SIMULTANEOUSLY TO DROP WINDS TO 5 KTS OR SO BY SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN LOW WIND REGIME THROUGH WED AFTN.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE