Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
BE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR


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