Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231157
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Elevated convection re-firing in low level jet axis over eastern
ND into the far nw MN. However the main 850 mb moist advection
zone has lifted into Canada and thus anticipated the elevated
convection to not get too strong this morning. But did expand area
of isold-sct convection thru mid morning. Otherwise no changes to
aftn/eve.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

small cluster of elevated storms formed nr carrington ND last
evening moved east-northeast to near Mayville then a storm within
that cluster took off and moved nearly due north into west side of
grand forks producing a long period of quarter to golf ball hail.

Will maintain isold tstm coverage for this thru 12z-13z into the
far nrn RRV. Storm formed in area of quite strong 850 mb moisture
advection which is shown nicely on SPC meso page.

for the balance of this morning once the current storm is gone it
should be quiet. Low pressure in north central ND and cold front
will enter DVL basin this morning and into the RRV mid to late
aftn. Initially not much will form until late aftn as front
encounters deeper moisture in srn RRV into NW MN. Thus pops
highest this area early evening.

No one meso model has been doing well. HRRR does keep some
development this aftn nr GFK and other action northeast of DVL and
then develops more as front moves east into W MN. That goes along
with fcst. Best bulk shear is right near or just behind front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

T-storm changes exits eastern fcst late tonight/early Wednesday.
Then a break before cooler air/stratocu and risk of showers wrap
back southeast into nrn 1/2 of fcst area late Wednesday into
Thursday.

Friday to Monday...Southwest flow aloft will develop and bring
chances for convection for the period. timing the waves will be a
challenge. Current indications are that Friday afternoon into
Saturday and again Sunday night into Monday will be times where
shower activity is more probable. Temperatures will be in the mid
70s to around 80 for the weekend...spot on the normal for the end of
August in the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Issue is location of t-storms thru the pd. Elevated convection
this morning may impact GFK and FAR locations thru 15z. Otherwise
VFR with mostly high and mid clouds. Frontal timing and wind shift
to move into DVL region midday and east into the RRV late this
aftn/eve reaching BJI area nr 06z.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle



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