Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 041016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
416 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN CLOUDS/TEMPS BUT ALSO TWO WINTER
SYSTEMS...ONE FRIDAY AND ANOTHER STARTING SAT NIGHT. THERE IS
STILL SOME REMNANT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FA BUT EXPECT
IT TO MOVE OFF TO THE SE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THIS
MOVES OFF WILL BE DEALING WITH THE CLOUD/TEMP ISSUE TODAY. STILL
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM BUT THERE ARE HOLES TOO.
GENERALLY THINKING THAT MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
AFTERNOON SUN. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DO GIVE
WAY TO THE SUN. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRI. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT IS PASSING OUT OF THE FA NOW. ANOTHER WEAK
SFC LOW PRODUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.
WINDS ALSO WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRI NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME DECENT WARMING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A
WARM WEDGE WORKING INTO EASTERN ND ON SAT/SAT EVENING. MODELS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH PCPN AMOUNTS/LOCATION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. MANY HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX SAT EVENING. TEMPS BEGIN TO CRASH AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES PAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE THE PCPN
TYPE WOULD SWITCH TO SNOW ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN AND
MON. THE TWO MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MON. THE
TWO MODELS DIVERGE AFTER MON WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE NORTH
SOLUTION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUN. MON AND TUE HIGH TEMPS
WERE DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES AND WED HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED
BY THREE OR FOUR DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

NOT A SURPRISE BUT HAVE A VARIETY OF CEILINGS OUT THERE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING MVFR TO LOW END VFR
CIGS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF LOWER AND HIGHER CLOUD BASES. BEST CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW REST OF THE NIGHT IS FARGO AS THE LIGHT SNOW IN
BEMIDJI ENDS. WINDS GENERALLY TURNING OR MAINTAINING A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION...THOUGH MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE IN BJI AREA DUE
TO POSITION OF TROUGH THRU 12Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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