Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Increased cloud cover through mid afternoon otherwise current
forecast seems on track.

UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

No update necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

No updates needed.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Forecast challenges will be minimal shower chances around the Lake
of the Woods region today as well as near critical fire weather
conditions by afternoon. As for now, showers along the Canadian
border have been slow to end. As of 230 am, one shower was left
northwest of Cando. Therefore will be able to start the day with a
dry forecast in all areas. The short wave that helped initiate
some afternoon showers/tstms will shift a little further southward
today, or more into the southern half of the FA. However, latest
ECMWF and the HRRR show some afternoon showers developing once
again around the Lake of the Woods region. Will match up with DLH
and insert some isolated showers in that area. Otherwise the rest
of the area will see another nice day, but with somewhat gusty
afternoon winds again. Moisture return has been a little overdone
recently, so with the warm highs expected today and afternoon
gusty winds, fire weather conditions could approach critical
thresholds again. Saturday looks very similar to today, but just a
tad warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Sunday high temps look similar to Saturdays, and could even be a
couple degrees warmer in some areas. Wind speeds by afternoon into
early evening should be even a little gustier too. Degree of
moisture return will bear watching, with models indicating mid to
upper 50 degree dew points moving in. Since most of the area is
quite dry, will be interesting to see if these higher dew points
are even possible. Chances for convection increase by Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, with the Day 3 SPC thunderstorm
outlook showing a slight risk of severe weather just to the west
of the FA.

Monday through Thursday...Southwesterly flow aloft continues for
much of the period as the pattern stays active for a while this
week. There is decent agreement with a lead shortwave and surface
trough coming out into the area on Monday, and this continues to be
our best shot for stronger thunderstorms and rainfall amounts. There
are signs of a weak cold front pushing down on Tuesday, with perhaps
some isolated convection. By the end of the period models diverge on
the timing of shortwaves coming out, so kept close to the blended
solution of 20-30 pops and temps near seasonal averages.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Will be seeing some SCT-BKN high based cu which should thin
during the afternoon. Otherwise VFR through the period.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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