Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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124
FXUS63 KFGF 151832
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Most obs sites in the northeastern counties have changed over to
snow, although BJI had a brief period of 2SM BR. Will continue to
keep some POPs for snow and FZDZ across the far eastern tier, but
as the upper system pushes off to the east we should see a
decrease in activity. Temps have been a bit colder than expected
so adjusted highs a bit for our very limited recovery today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Surface trough just east of the forecast area will intensify
today as the system moves east. 100 to 160M height falls are
expected today as upper system also intensifies. System closes
off at lower levels. Wrap around precip over southern MAN will
move across the northeast zones today. Also precipitable water
was around a third of an inch and will decrease during the day
except in the northeast zones where precipitable water will
decrease late today and tonight.

East-west cross section indicated a nearly adiabatic boundary
layer this morning. Most of the cold advection is occurring
around 900 hpa. So expect winds to be up today and will
increase winds. Winds will back off after sunset. Fog loop
indicated breaks in the low clouds over parts of central and
western ND and in southern MAN. However southern MAN clear
spots may fill in with clouds with developing system. Some
clearing will be possible this afternoon and tonight mainly
over the southwest zones.

Return flow will occur Thu with winds gusty again but out of the
south at 20 to 30 knots.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

An upper level ridge will be centered over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley on Thursday night, drifting east across the Great Lakes
region. An upper level wave will be moving east across the prairie
provinces and the Northern Plains states Thursday night as well. A
strong frontogenesis band will develop over eastern ND and push
northeast into far northern MN ahead of this wave. Models hint at
warmer temps aloft with this feature, which may result in sleet or
freezing rain across northeast ND. Liquid precipitation of 0.10" to
maybe 0.25" on the upper end look to be possible at this time. If it
was snow it might be and inch or two but if it`s freezing rain or
sleet, it could be a big problem. Plenty of uncertainty exists
still, however.

As the upper level trough passes...so does the surface low and cold
front. Still, highs are expected to be in the 30s for the most part
on Friday. A stronger push of cold air comes Friday night...keeping
highs in the upper teens and 20s for Saturday. After Saturday, a dry
warming trend is expected until Monday night/Tuesday when another
push of cold air will drop south from Canada, perhaps along with
some snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

All sites are MVFR or IFR with quite a bit of low clouds across
the area. A few flurries at times that impacted KDVL, with more
substantial snow at KBJI which has vis down to 1-2SM at times. Any
precip will taper off in the next few hours but clouds will hang
around for much of the period. Most locations will be MVFR across
the western TAF sites but IFR will hang around in the east for a
while longer. Some of the blended guidance had VFR conditions
moving in late tonight and tomorrow but MOS had lower ceilings so
leaned more towards the pessimistic side. Northwest winds with
gusts above 20 kts will become light and variable tonight, then
pick up again out of the southeast late in the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...JR



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