Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201732
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

The band of rain along the I-94/US10 corridor has been tightening,
so made some further adjustments to POPs. Continue to think the
west end of the band should see precip ending in the next few
hours with some showers hanging around west central MN into the
early evening before dissipating. Some clearing in the far
southern CWA has allowed temps to come up so bumped highs a bit,
but along the band kept them in the 60s to around 70.

UPDATE Issued at 930 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Showers continue to move across the I-94/Highway 10 corridor, and
short range models have it continuing through the rest of the
morning and then shifting northeastward into MN during the
afternoon. Bumped up POPs in the grids in addition to sending out
a NOW for current radar trends. Also lowered highs a bit, mainly
across the southern counties where clouds and precip for a large
portion of the day will keep temps in the 60s to low 70s.

UPDATE Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Showers were moving into the southwest zones on radar and were
moving east about 40 knots. No other change made at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Flat upper level ridge axis was over eastern MT. Water vapor loop
indicated a short wave over northeast MT. Upper level jet extended
from the Pacific Northwest along the Canadian border to New England.
Upper level jet will shot slowly into southern Canada through 12Z
Fri.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough off the southern CA
coast. Trough will move into the Northern and Central Plains by 00Z
Thu and bring threat of rain in the southern Red River Valley. High
level moisture forecast to move into southern MN and southern SD

Upper level trough off the west coast of Canada will move into the
Intermountain West and deepen. Downstream ridge building will occur
over the Northern Plains by 12Z Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

For friday through Monday...the forecast deals with track and timing
of 500 mb upper low/trough which will move northeast and east into
the northern plains.  ECMWF has been a bit more consistent over the
past few days in taking upper low in tact into ND/SD Sunday.  00z
GFS weakens upper low and opens it up and trough moves through a lot
faster.  Thus with ECMWF precipitation hangs around a bit longer
than with GFS.  Models do indicate however the heaviest rainfall
likely to the west of the upper low over Montana into parts of
eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba...which is good news for
area farmers. Overall no deviation from given model blend
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Rain band will continue to bring a few showers to near KFAR and
KBJI for the next few hours, but should end by the 21-00Z
timeframe. All sites have VFR ceilings with mostly mid and high
clouds. This trend will continue as most model solutions have the
lower stratus staying to the south through the next 24 hours. Some
rain will move into the northwestern forecast area later tonight
but think at this point that it will be mostly north of KDVL and
will leave out of the TAFs for now. Light and variable winds will
shift around to the north then northeast and pick up by the end of
the period but only to around 8-10 kts or so.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JR



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