Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 142125
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Areas of light snow linger along and southeast of a cold frontal
band from NBDE-KBJI-KFFM-KABR. That cold front will steadily push
south-eastward through the late afternoon and continue across
southeastern MN duirng the evening hours.

A tight pressure gradient and strong winds behind the front will
continue to cause blowing and drifting snow issues along the
central Red River Valley corridor into early evening... especially
where recent snowfall has been greatest. Winds will taper off a
bit after sunset but persist at 15g25 mph through mosy of the
overnight period and well into Monday.

The H5 low pressure center and trof axis edges well east of the
FA by early evening, so skies should continue to scattered out
throughout the evening... allowing for significant cold advection
and bitter cold wind chill temperatures... especially through
eastern ND and the Red River Valley corridor. Patchy Low clouds
may persist into early morning over northcentral MN... so coldest
temps there will likely be around mid morning.

Sunday should see fair skies but stout north winds and quite cold
daytime highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

For Monday night through Tuesday morning, frigid weather and
dangerous wind chills commence as an Arctic airmass and high
pressure meander through the Dakotas. This strength of this surface
high pressure is at an extreme with respect to the 30-year
climatology, 3 standard deviations from a mean similar system this
time of year. This will yield another night of frigid temperatures
with lows in the teens to twenties below zero. With high pressure
building through to the west and southwest, expect a light north
wind to aid wind chill, yielding persistent wind chills in the 30s
to 50s below zero through Tuesday morning.

Early in the week, split flow aloft and a high amplitude upper ridge
in the West will filter in drier air and thus dry weather. Starting
Tuesday, the recent roller coaster of temperatures begins another
ascent, as return flow develops and the upper ridge progresses into
the Plains. Tuesday will see a return to highs in the single digits
on either side of the zero marker. By Wednesday, daytime highs will
reach the teens to 20s above zero, with increasing warmth each day
toward the end of the week. By Friday, daytime highs are expected to
hover around the freezing mark. Heading into the weekend, split flow
aloft begins to converge, allowing for a more active weather pattern
across the Plains and perhaps some snow chances for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Updated at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Expect mainly MVFR CIGS across the area with patchy IFR CIGS and
VSBYS in light snow over portions of northwest and west central
MN through late afternon. Northern and central Red River Valley
will see widespread IFR VSBYS in blowing snow through the
remainder of the afternoon into early evening...with northerly
surface winds gusting to 30kts. Otherwise... expect MVFR CIGs to
linger into the overnight across northwest MN ...with clearing
skies spreading from Northwest to southeast across the FA by
Monday morning. northerly winds likley to remain 15 to 20kts
overnight thru eastern ND and the Red River corridor.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030-039.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029>031-040.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Monday for MNZ006-009-016-017-
     023-024-028-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ001>004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Gust



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