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000
FXUS63 KFGF 100554
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX AND TEMPS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A WHILE AS CLOUD COVER HAS
DECREASED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
SOME STRATUS AND THERE ARE MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM.
THINK THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE WIND CHILL ADVISORY READINGS SPREADING SOUTH AND
EASTWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

TWEAKED THE POPS/WX AS WELL AS TEMPS TO FOLLOW CURRENT TRENDS. AS
EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN RISING IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS...ALONG WITH FALLING WINDS IN THE WEST WITH THE SFC LOW
CENTERED NEAR OAKES...HAS KEPT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES TEMPS WILL DROP
FURTHER INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THINK THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS WINDS PICK UP...BUT THINK THAT WIDESPREAD
REDUCED VIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. WILL MAINTAIN THE
HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS THAT WE HAVE GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

UPDATED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TRIED TO SHOW A TRANSLATION TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT. THINK THAT MANY AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TRIED TO REFLECT A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SITUATION.

ALSO EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND AMBIENT TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW -10 F IN THE SOUTHEAST
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED READINGS TO NEAR CRITERIA AROUND WADENA AND
PKD. THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE STAYED RELATIVELY WARMER...AND
TEMPS WILL BE RISING SOME IN THE SOUTHEAST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. HOWEVER...BEHIND THE SFC
LOW LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
COUNTIES WILL DROP TO CRITERIA. RATHER THAN GETTING CUTE WITH
TIMING OF HEADLINES JUST INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
GOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WILL REFLECT SOME VARIATIONS WITH
THE WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

STUCK IN THIS COLD PATTERN SO CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS COMING IN TODAY SEEM VERY CLOSE
TO WHAT THE GOING FORECAST SHOWS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE
NECESSARY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE FA NOW
HELPING TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FA
TONIGHT SPREADING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO THOSE AREAS. SHOULD
HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT TO
HAVE SOME SORT OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL GRADIENT. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES THRU AND WINDS PICK UP WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BECOME
AN ISSUE. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND WINDS WILL ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR IN ND AND HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR IN MN. TIMING WILL BE FROM
MID EVENING UNTIL 18Z TUE ALTHOUGH SOME TIME FRAMES MAY BE
MARGINAL. TRIED TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AS MOST FOLKS KNOW IT IS
COLD SO THIS IS NO SURPRISE ANYWAY. WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE AFTER 18Z TUE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADD/EXTEND/CUT AS
NECESSARY. LEFT THE LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST FA ON TUE AS SOME MODELS STILL SHOW THIS POTENTIAL. VERY
CHILLY TUE NIGHT AND ALL AREAS WILL AGAIN GET INTO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THE LEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

NEXT WEAK LITTLE IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST FA ON WED AND
LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE KDVL REGION. THIS
IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD WADENA WED NIGHT. ON THE
BACK OF THIS DEPARTING SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW ANOTHER ONE WILL ARRIVE
ON THU MUCH LIKE THE FIRST. NEITHER ONE SHOULD PRODUCE MUCH MORE
THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY TIME
PERIOD. AN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH RE ENFORCING SHOTS
OF COLD AIR AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
WITH ANY SYSTEM...WITH SCANT MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
HINGE LARGELY ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
EVOLVE...THE ECMWF IS THE COLDEST MODEL BY FAR AND HAVE TRENDED
THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE TOWARDS THIS COLDER SOLUTION...AND WE MAY
STILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES OFF INTO MN. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA INCLUDING KDVL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A
FEW SPOTS WHERE AWOS IS REPORTING BKN001 IN THE REGION. MAY BE
FALSE RETURNS FROM ICE CRYSTALS BUT MAY ALSO BE LOCALIZED STRATUS
FORMATION. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY MORNING WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SOME STRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING
BACK IN BY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE...DROPPING CIGS
DOWN INTO THE 2000-4000 FT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR