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000
FXUS63 KFGF 270311
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK