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000
FXUS63 KFGF 251245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CUT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER WITH AREA OF CLEARING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FA.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND EASTERN FA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOWER CIGS
ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING SO
KEPT CONDITIONS VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER