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000
FXUS63 KFGF 151428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY`S UPDATES WILL BE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND WHEN -SN WILL MOVE INTO THE FA LATER TODAY. AFTER
RECORD BREAKING LOWS READINGS ARE SLOWLY RISING. WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION STILL THINK CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHABLE SO NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING ANY LIGHT PCPN INTO THE FA. WILL
WAIT TIL SOME OF THE MAIN MODELS COME IN BUT MAY TRIM BACK PCPN
MOVING INTO THE FA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

OBSERVING RECORD COLD THIS MORNING. SO FAR...GRAND FORKS (NWS
OFFICE) HAS DROPPED TO 11 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 12
DEGREES SET IN 2000 AND FARGO HAS DROPPED TO 13 DEGREES...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 15 DEGREES SET IN 1935. MORNING LOWS
ARE EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH 7 AM READINGS OF 1 ABOVE
AT FLAG ISLAND AND 2 ABOVE AT BEMIDJI. COULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED HOURLY CURVE TO BETTER MATCH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY
INTRODUCED IT AT KDVL AND KFAR AS ITS EASTWARD EXTENT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25
KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE HALLOCK GAGE SEEMS TO BE WORKING
AGAIN. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS CRESTING IN MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...OSLO AND GRAND FORKS CONTINUE TO FALL. STAGES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. A CREST IS
EXPECTED AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT
PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...JR