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000
FXUS63 KFGF 261236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO UPDATED NEEDED FOR THIS TIME AS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
10 TO 20 BELOW WITH NW WINDS GIVING WIND CHILL VALUES 25 TO 40
BELOW. AS A RESULT WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK