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000
FXUS63 KFGF 080347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

CLOUDS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE/DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODEST WARM ADVECTION MAY LIMIT
TOO MUCH OF AN ADDITIONAL FALL OVERNIGHT SO LEAVING OUT THIS AREA
OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY A GOOD CALL. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP BUT SLOWLY. BEST DROP OVER EASTERN FA WHICH WILL
BE LAST TO SEE MIXING AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. MADE SOME MINOR
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS BUT NOTHING MAJOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

TEMPERATURES NOT DROPPING OFF QUITE AS FAST AS CURRENT CURVE HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT WILL JUST MONITOR AND NO CHANGES MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE PERIOD. WILL BE WATCHING TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

THE COLD REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BUT THERE ARE ALSO A
COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TOO. OVERALL DID NOT HAVE TO MAKE
MUCH ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BUT THERE ARE CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SW. THESE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THEY DO THEY SHOULD HELP BRING A TINY
BIT OF MODERATION IN THE CHILLY TEMPS. MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THESE CLOUDS AND HOW FAST THEY DO APPROACH. SINCE IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL ARRIVE LATE WILL CUT BACK SOME ON LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT. AS THE CLOUDS ROLL INTO THE SOUTH THERE MAY BE SOME
STEADYING OFF LATE. WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR IN ND AND
THE HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR IN MN THRU SUNDAY MORNING. ANY LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE ZERO ON SUNDAY
AND THEREFORE END THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES BRIEFLY. KEPT SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FA. CLOUDS SHOULD STILL HANG AROUND IN THE EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING INTO THE WEST. MAY NEED SOME
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AGAIN SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

NEXT LITTLE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE MON AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
SPREAD MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT. AGAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL STAY COLD BUT EXACTLY HOW COLD
WILL DEPEND ON WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN DISTURBANCES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
MODELS AGREE WITH A CLIPPER FOR LATER ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH EACH DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

EXPECTING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH HOWEVER
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SNOW NOT EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH UNTIL
AFT 12Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER