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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191508
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1008 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Just minor tweeks to the fcst needed. Did raise temps a degree or
two in the northern RRV and NW MN today as high clouds are thinner
and temps are a bit higher than the prev fcst hourlies. Did
increase sky just a bit as pretty thick cirrus shield southern
half of the fcst area.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Upper level ridge axis was over the Red River Valley and will
slowly shift northeast. Surface ridge on the east side of the
upper ridge will also shift northeast for today and tonight.
Surface ridge will provide another day of relatively dry
easterly flow. Precipitable water was under a quarter of an
inch.

Upper level jet was punching into KS and southern NE with
storms occurring on east side of the jet.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over AZ.
Upper trough will move into the Northern Plains Sat and
Sun. Rain is expected to move into the far southern zones
Sat morning and move north across the area. Deformation
zone will set up over the area Sat and Sat night.

Will keep frost advisory going for early this morning for
essentially the northern half of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Monday to next Thursday night will see the below normal temperatures
continue to start the work week. Models in fair agreement with the
overall general synoptic pattern and will see minimal impactful
weather this next week. Large scale 500mb stacked system over
southern Ontario to start the week will continue the light rain
threat Monday and Tuesday. The clouds and a rather cool airmass will
keep temps in the upper 50s east and low 60s west. As the longwave
trough slides east NW flow aloft with western CONUS ridging will
allow the northern plains moderating temps Wednesday and Thursday.
Possible short wave in the NW flow on Wednesday could bring light
showers to parts of the area otherwise dry with temperatures warming
into the 70s west and upper 60s east for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

VFR conditions were across the area with sct to bkn cigs above 20
thousand ft. VFR conditions are expected for today and tonight. Cigs
may lower to 6 to 8 thousand ft by 12Z Sat in the far southern
zones.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JH