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000
FXUS63 KFGF 040542
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SLOWER IN DROPPING OFF THAN
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MORE SITES HAVE GONE BELOW ZERO. ADJUSTED
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO BUT THINK WE WILL STILL SEE EVERYONE DOWN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT CLOSER TO 09Z THAN 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO FALL THAN EXPECTED AS SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND MIXING WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS STILL MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO
EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST. THINK THAT WE WILL STILL GET DOWN INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN OUT OF THE
NORTH. THINK THAT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOING DOWN TO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA SHORTLY AND THE SOUTH WILL REACH CRITERIA LATER
TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES THAT WE HAVE GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT WITH WINDS SLOWLY
DROPPING OFF HAVE LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. TEMPS DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN SETS...SO WILL KEEP THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND CHILL ISSUES TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...WE WILL CANCEL ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
SNOW HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE AREAS OF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW BY LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH STARTING AT 00Z...AND THE SOUTHERN 1/3
STARTING AT 06Z...AND RUN IT THROUGH 18Z WED.

ON WED...COLD HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON
FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW.

FOR WED NIGHT...HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BEFORE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR THU/FRI...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
ON FRI SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER
FOR MOST AREAS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GRADUALLY TREND MORE ZONAL LATER IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS/GEM DO
INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF DRY. CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST MODEL
SIGNAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP IS DURING THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER...GENERALLY IN THE 30S OR HIGHER...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF WAVES AND POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
DAY-TO-DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EVERYWHERE BUT KTVF WHICH HAS SOME STRAY
2000 FT STRATUS HANGING AROUND. THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN MID DAY TOMORROW WITH CIGS AROUND 3500-6000 FT
DEVELOPING. WIND WILL DROP OFF AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ028>030-038-
     039-049-052-053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026-027-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ002-003-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
     013>017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR