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000
FXUS63 KFGF 030830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR TODAY. 00Z
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...INDUCING
MID-LEVEL (700MB) WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND NOT FINDING ANY HINTS OF MESO-
SCALE FORCING. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 0.25 INCHES. GIVEN THE ABOVE
FACTORS...THE THOUGHT IS THAT MODELS ARE DOING A JOB PORTRAYING
QPF AMOUNTS. SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH (20:1-25:1)...SO
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH QPF TO GET MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. ENSEMBLES
(MPX WRF...SREF) AND MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL BE FROM DVL-GFK-PKD...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
(AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH). WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG...AND NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. SNOW CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

FAST MOVING UPPER FLOW WILL MAKE POP/WX DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTO
TUESDAY. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
TUESDAY (OR UPPER WAVES WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH). TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING UPPER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE POP/WX DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. MODELS DO SIGNAL AN
UPPER WAVE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING/LOCATION IS LOW. BLENDED IN THE LATEST CONSENSUS FORECAST
INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE SAME BASIC
SYNOPTIC SET-UP WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...THE
BEST RESOLVED BEING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LIMITS PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDIED BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SO WILL FOLLOW LOW END ALL BLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY
AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT REMAINING
VFR. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WILL SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS FA AFT
SUNRISE AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT MVFR CIGS IN -SN AREAS WITH SOME LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER