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301
FXUS63 KFGF 160248
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Area of rainfall has been having a tough time spreading eastward
this evening with the majority concentrated out across the Devils
Lake basin. Hi-res models do depict somewhat of a lessening trend
in coverage for late this evening and early overnight before
ramping things up again towards morning and continuing through the
day tomorrow across the southern Red River Valley and into
northwestern Minnesota. Have made some adjustments to QPF in the
very near term to take into account the latest radar trends and
observations but am not confident enough to change much late
tonight and into tomorrow quite yet.

UPDATE Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Just some minor updates to PoPs to push the area of rainfall
currently entering eastern North Dakota to the east just a tad
faster. Additionally, increased QPF a bit across the far
northwestern forecast area with Cando already reporting nearly an
inch with more echoes upstream.

Other than that, everything else looks on track for the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Rainfall the main concern, although impacts expected to remain
minimal. Water vapor imagery indicates several shortwaves set to
affect the region into Wednesday before the mean upper level
trough propagates through the region by later Wednesday.
As a result, anticipate a few rounds of showers during this
period. Each separate shortwave will likely track a bit south of
the previous shortwave. Forcing from the first shortwave can be
seen by the showers across central ND, propagating toward
northeast ND and the northern valley. Total QPF expected to be
0.25-0.75 inches across much of the region, and potentially up to
near an inch across west central Minnesota (closer to the
deformation zone as main mid/upper low propagates through on
Wednesday). Very weak instability combined with convection south
of the region (affecting moisture transport) will severely limit
heavy rain potential.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Overall pattern in the extended period looks a little more unsettled
as a series of waves cross the area.

For Wednesday night into Thursday...some rain will linger but mainly
over the MN portion of the area. Conditions will improve on Thursday
with moderate temperatures and relatively light winds.

By Friday...an advancing upper level wave will provide chances for
another batch of showers or storms. However...Saturday looks more
tranquil before another system approaches the forecast area by
Sunday morning triggering more showers/storms. Temperatures overall
through the period look to remain near seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

VFR ceilings currently across the area will gradually trend
towards MVFR as the evening and overnight continue (maybe even
some brief IFR towards morning). Several areas of rainfall will
continue to track from west to east across the area with the
possibility of some brief reductions in visibility in the heaviest
showers. Light southeast winds to turn to the northwest late in
the period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Lee