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000
FXUS63 KFGF 210446
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1146 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

No changes to the overnight forecast and into the morning hours.

UPDATE Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Convection has developed across eastern Montana this evening as
expected. However coverage has been less than depicted by earlier
runs of the CAMs. Still given the regime with increasing 850mb
low level jet convergence and broad warm air and moisture
advection, will use the trend in the CAMs of showers developing
in the 7Z to 9Z time frame across central ND for the overnight
forecast wrt to PoPs, timing and coverage through the morning
hours.

UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Updates limited to matching current temp, wind and sky trends to
the forecast. Will monitor convection in Montana this evening and
update overnight PoPs as convective allowing models initialize
aforementioned activity for shower coverage in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Still have a fair amount of cumulus across the FA, but mainly
along and east of the Red River Valley. Expect this to fade away
pretty quickly this evening. Most of the night will be pretty
quiet. However, around midnight, some showers and possibly some
thunder, will move into the MT/ND border region. These will be
elevated out ahead of a sfc front, and should move into areas
along/west of the Red River Valley toward Wed morning. These are
supported by 850mb warm advection and a low level jet, as well as
good upper level jet dynamics too. Due to the lateness of the
night, not sure there will be much thunder in eastern ND
associated with this, so just went showers at this point. Later
shifts can add isolated thunder if they see stronger convection
holding together as it moves into our FA.

This early convection could have an impact on what happens Wed
afternoon and early evening. SPC did update their day 2 outlook
around noon and expanded the marginal risk into most of the FA.
Models are showing the potential for low 60 dew points by
afternoon, with a frontal boundary moving into the RRV by late
afternoon to early evening. This does not appear to be a strong
cold front, but more a wind switch. Decent shear exists, so there
is a possibility if there is morning heating after the first round
of showers, to get some strong to severe storms by late afternoon
into the early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Not sure how fast any convection that forms late Wed afternoon or
early evening will move off to the east. Will keep some pcpn
chances in the east through at least 1 am, but will keep things
pcpn free thereafter.

On Thursday and Thursday night, shortwave energy combined with a
strong 850 mb jet will bring small chances for showers along the
international border and in the far southern valley. However,
moisture is quite limited as we remain in northwest flow aloft. Of
greater impact on Thursday will be breezy west winds with peak gusts
to 35 mph in the Devils Lake basin region.

The better chances for showers and storms over the weekend are
associated with a shortwave moving through on Friday and Friday
night, but the models are not in very good agreement on its
timing/location. For Saturday through Tuesday, a more active
northwest flow pattern and weak upper level waves moving through may
yield some showers and storms in the area on and off. That being
said, the weekend doesn`t look to be a wash out by any means, and
heavy rain or severe storms are not anticipated at this time. The
main impact for the weekend will be colder, more spring like
weather. Temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be below normal
with highs in the 60s to lower 70s, with warmer weather not
returning until early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Went with VCSH for DVL, GFK and FAR for expected activity to
develop overnight and linger into the forenoon hours. Could have
some thunder embedded with in the shower activity but will be
isolated. Timing and uncertainty at TVF and BJI will keep dry for
now. VFR CIGs and VSBY with showers. Thunderstorm development is
possible in the afternoon though only a few storms are expected.
Strong west winds with frontal passage from west to east during
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/BP
AVIATION...JK