Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FINE DAY OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOTS OF SUN. A SHORT WAVE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHEAST IS SPREADING SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE FAR SRN RRV ATTM...AND THIS WILL SPREAD
INTO WCNTRL MN. THIS IS WITHIN THE FCST SO NO CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME MORNING FOG MAINLY IN
MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK LLJ AROUND 30KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
IT OUT ANYWHERE REALLY. SINCE WE HAD SOME LOW POPS IN THE
NORTH...WILL MAINTAIN THOSE AND MAY NEED TO ADD THEM IN ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WARM AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
AND IT MAY BECOME BREEZY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND MILD WEATHER
WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE MERCURY ON THURSDAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 90S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 IN MINNESOTA. A STRONG
CAP WILL ALSO DEVELOP THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION.

FOR FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED
FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE
NE-SW ACROSS THE REGION...AND IN NO HURRY TO MOVE GIVEN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...OWING TO DAYS
OF UNINTERRUPTED LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH NAEFS PWATS
REACHING NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY LATE
FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON DETAILS...PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE (DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL
POSITION). TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND
EXTENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. TONIGHT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHTACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JK


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