Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250234

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
934 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Issued at 934 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Showers and storms have been lifting northeastward a bit faster
than expected, so adjusted POPs accordingly. Continued to keep
some isolated to scattered mention over the western counties as
some cells continue to pop up west of the Red River. Storms
continue to be fairly weak and with the exception of near Lake of
the Woods the lightning strikes have been getting fewer and
farther between. Will adjust weather grids to include just an
isolated thunder mention. The precip will continue to move
eastward throughout the night with wrap around starting in the
Devils Lake area by early morning.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Showers and storms have moved into the southern CWA, with a
weakening trend as the convection moves into more stable air. The
more unstable western counties have seen little more than a few
non-severe cells pop up. Adjusted POPs for categorical in the
southeast for the next few hours. The short range models have been
trending a little bit more sparse further north, but kept at least
a short period of likely POPs up to the Highway 2 corridor. High
POPs will continue for the eastern counties through the rest of
the night, with the wrap around showers starting to move into the
Devils Lake basin.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The main challenge will be pcpn chances tonight and then the
lingering effects of this system into Sunday. As of mid afternoon
the main tstm action has been over southeast SD into southwest MN.
This activity seems to be more focused along the sfc warm front,
which is tied to the sfc low over southwest ND. The main 500 mb
low is also over the western high plains, quite a bit further west
than our FA. Cloud cover has inhibited temps today, but mainly
over northwest MN. Despite the clouds the strong SSE wind push has
brought up mid 60 dew points and temps in the upper 70s to near
80F across the south.

Instability has risen to about what was expected today, in the
500-1500 J/kg range. However, there still has not been much
activity developing other than that further south. Latest SPC HRRR
shows the activity further south lifting up into mainly west
central MN tonight, but it does have a little pcpn poking up thru
the central and northern Red River Valley. The dry slot will try
to push up into the FA later tonight followed by the wrap around
on Sunday. Gusty northwest winds will also kick up on Sunday, but
at this point it looks like the worst of it may brush the Devils
Lake region and areas just west of the valley. Later shifts can
take another look at that.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Upper level low will begin to exit the area Sunday night with
wraparound showers exiting northwestern Minnesota.  Clearing to move
in Monday...though may take a bit longer to clear out the far
eastern fcst area than models indicate.  Breezy north-northwest
Sunday night into Monday before diminishing Monday evening as high
pressure ridge begins to move in.  Clear or clearing out Monday
night all areas with sfc high over eastern North Dakota by 12z
Tuesday.  Looks like a cool night and coordinated with BIS/ABR and
dropped lows below model blend guidance and have mostly upper 30s.
Dry Wed-Thu as upper level ridge builds in for dry and a bit milder
airmass.  A weak short wave will move in for Friday into Saturday
giving a chance for precipitation.  Temperatures will run a tad
above normal late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Showers and storms have entered the southern forecast area, and
should be in the KFAR area shortly. The showers and storms will
move north and eastward for the rest of the evening, although
coverage further north is somewhat uncertain. Will keep VCTS to
VCSH mention going at all sites but KDVL overnight. KDVL and KBJI
are the only sites not VFR currently, but there should be some
MVFR to IFR ceilings moving in overnight along and behind the
shower and storms. There should be some recovery late tonight and
tomorrow morning as the dry portion of the low pressure system,
but MVFR ceilings will return by the end of the period behind a
cold front. There will also be some scattered showers wrapping
around so have VCSH at the end of the period for all but KFAR.
Winds from the southeast will start to diminish and shift to the
southwest overnight. A cold front coming in tomorrow morning will
shift winds to the northwest and there could be gusts over 30 kts
in the afternoon.




LONG TERM...Riddle
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