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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC. THEY
HOLD EVERYONE IN MVFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN. LEAVING SOME MID CLOUDS....EXCEPT FOR FAR NE FCST AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLEAR AREA IN SW MANITOBA MOVING INTO
NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THUS KEPT MOST
SITES VFR OVERNIGHT OR BECOMING THAT WAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20-25KTS. MONDAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA
OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE