Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271751
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A few speckles are showing up on radar along the Canadian border,
but doubt much of anything is reaching the ground yet. Winds have
come up as expected and the cumulus is getting thicker too.
Showers should start to get a little more numerous in the next few
hours, peaking through the late afternoon and evening. The morning
sun has allowed temps to rise into the low 70s across most of the
area, helping to contribute to sfc based CAPE values of around 500
J/kg over northeast ND into northwest MN. Sfc dew points are quite
dry, with precipitable water values pretty low too. This could
result in the showers producing some higher wind gusts as they
move through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Precip chances and strength will be the main forecast issue for
the period.

Water vapor loop shows the upper trough rotating over southern
Canada, with a fairly vigorous shortwave digging down through
Saskatchewan. The models are in good agreement on this shortwave
coming down into our northwestern counties by late in the day.
This will help push a surface trough into the CWA, with some
convective activity along it during the afternoon. Models have
been trending a bit slower with bringing precip into the area,
keeping most of the activity over our northwestern counties
through 00Z. A few of the models develop a narrow band of 1000
J/kg CAPE by 00Z, but it is short lived and deep layer bulk shear
is weak. PWAT values are also expected to be around 0.5 to 0.75
range with the best moisture staying to our south. Thunder will
be a possibility but not expecting anything too strong at this
point. The showers and isolated thunderstorms will swing further
south and east during the evening hours as the upper shortwave and
surface trough axis rotate through.

As for temperatures, with showers holding off until later in the
day we should climb into the low to mid 70s in most areas.
Northwest winds along with clouds and precip will keep lows
tonight near the 50 mark.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Sunday and Monday...The upper low will begin to dig into northern
MN, with decent model agreement on one vort lobe coming down the
backside of the trough on Sunday and another reinforcing shortwave
arriving on Monday. Will continue to keep chance POPs, mostly
showers by Monday as even MU CAPE will be pretty minimal by that
point. Northwest surface winds will be rather breezy during the
period thanks to a good pressure gradient, so bumped up the winds
a bit above the blended solution. Those winds will help knock
back high temps into the 60s maybe low 70s on Sunday, but even
cooler air arrives on Monday with the second shortwave. Highs
could stay below the 50s to low 60s most of the day with breezy
and cloudy conditions.

Monday night through Friday...The impacts from the upper level
trough will move and clouds will decrease. Large high pressure
will build in for Tues night into Thursday with dry weather and
temperatures a bit below normal. Friday will see an upper level
trough move into the area with a slight chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The calmer morning conditions have ended, with most TAFs now
reporting wind gusts along with some cumulus. Expect the cumulus
to get thicker through the day into the evening, but well into the
VFR range. Showers and isolated thunder remain possible for most
of the TAF period, but the chances of hitting any particular TAF
site is low enough to just include VCSH for now. If confidence
increases can update later. Winds will drop off again tonight and
become gusty again by mid Sunday morning. Could see some 30 to 40
mph wind gusts as any showers come through, but hard to nail that
down too specifically at this point either.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Riddle
AVIATION...Godon



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