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000
FXUS63 KFGF 271134
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

CAM guidance differs on how far east convection associated with
entrance region of jet maxima over nw-central ND gets before
dissipating. With drier and more stable airmass in place will opt
for the drier solution and will hold off on pops but monitor. No
overall changes necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Compact but well defined mid level circulation will propagate
southeast today clipping the Mn international border area this
afternoon. Although feature will be riding over surface high
pressure there is enough cooling aloft for favorable lapse rates
along with minor instability to support some low pops over the far
ne. Warm advection limited to areas along and west of the valley
and while there may be some periodic clouds temperatures should be
able to climb a degree or two above yesterday.

Warm advection continues tonight and sufficient mixing should hold
minimums close to 60 with warmest temperatures across the western
fa.

With warmer column in place Friday temperatures should continue a
slow warm up with all areas in the 80s.

Dependent on cloud cover Saturday should see similar temperatures
to Friday.

Rain chances return Saturday night as short wave and associated
surface boundary approach the fa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Long wave upper level ridge amplifies slightly and retrogrades
slightly over western North America. Long wave trough over the East
Coast amplifies a bit and retrogrades farther east into eastern
North America. Flow associated with long wave trough over northeast
Canada digs more into eastern Canada by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS then the GFS becomes
the faster solution by the end of the period. The GFS was trending
slower while the ECMWF was trending faster. In later periods, both
models were trending faster. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures for Sun and Tue. High temps were
decreased one to two degrees for Mon and Wed from yesterdays
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Any pcpn chances too
spotty to include in forecasts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker