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000
FXUS63 KFGF 062100
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPS THIS PAST MORNING GOT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS
LED TO CURRENT MAX TEMPS -5F TO -10F. CONSIDERING VALUES THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD START...WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. THE COLDER GUIDANCE VERIFIED BEST LAST NIGHT...AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL USE THIS COLDER
GUIDANCE. SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5MPH TO 15MPH...WILL
NEED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FA
UNTIL NOON ON SATURDAY.

WILL HAVE TO AGAIN EVALUATE WIND CHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL
INVADE THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
AND 12Z MODELS INDICATE LIGHT QPF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FORCING APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND PWATS ARE ONLY AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE 20:1 TO 25:1...SO ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. A BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL BRING A COMPACT
CLIPPER SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. A QUICK PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH. AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE WILL
KEEP HIGHS VERY COLD...EITHER SIDE OF ZERO FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SFC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW MAY DEAMPLIFY A BIT
BY LATER NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SOME DEGREE OF MODERATION IN TEMPS
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY ANY WEAK IMPULSE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS. SEEING SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
THE VALLEY...WITH PATCHES OF VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI