568
FXUS63 KFGF 102007
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible in parts of northeast North Dakota
  and far northwest Minnesota late thursday afternoon and night,
  with a risk level of 1 out of 5.

- Severe storms possible parts of northwest and west central
  Minnesota Friday afternoon, with a risk level 1 out of 5.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...Synopsis...

West to southwest flow over the Dakotas, with the main shortwave
over SD and several weak vorts moving through ND. Surface trough
is still out over central ND, with plenty of moisture and
capped instability out ahead of it. Cold front just behind the
trough axis will move through tonight into tomorrow, with
surface high pressure building in behind it for Saturday. Some
smoke coming down to the surface is possible behind the front,
with a few of the models showing moderate to high
concentrations, so included a mention in the forecast. A weak
shortwave moving through northwest flow on Sunday, but better
precipitation chances when flow returns to the west- southwest
and a stronger shortwave comes in late Monday into Tuesday.
Troughing behind the shortwave for Wednesday into Thursday
should bring some cooler temperatures.

...Marginal risk this afternoon/tonight...

Still capped to surface based convection but the SPC
mesoanalysis page has CIN weakening over our area. Best upper
forcing is to our south but there is at least some convergence
along the surface trough. Most cumulus is either to our south or
over southwestern Saskatchewan, but can`t completely rule out
something popping over our CWA. CAMs are of no help currently
given recent performance. Better precipitation chances near the
Canadian border later tonight as the main cold front moves in
along with some cooler mid-level temps. Don`t expect widespread
severe given deep layer bulk shear around 25 kts, but can`t
completely rule out something pulsing up so isolated severe
mention across our north seems reasonable.

...Marginal risk Friday...

Cold front will be through our ND counties by tomorrow morning,
but will still be hanging around portions of northwestern and
west central MN. Still the potential for plenty of instability
out ahead of the front, with probabilities of CAPE over 2000
J/kg around 60 to 70 percent in portions of our southeastern
counties. Shear not very impressive as all of the stronger
values are behind the front in the stable air, but can`t rule
out a few cells firing along the boundary and getting pretty
strong before they move off the east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VCTS at KGFK and will be starting shortly at KTVF. Although
ceilings will remain VFR there could be some brief heavy
downpours to reduce visibility to 1 to 2 miles. Some showers
also at KDVL but think the convection will remain north of the
further east and south airports. Convective activity will taper
off before 03Z, there could be additional storms later on but
at this point mostly near the Canadian border and not near the
airports. Winds will shift from a southeasterly direction with
gusts to around 20 kts to the northeast, then northwest. Some
models bring in MVFR or even IFR ceilings by tomorrow morning
but don`t really trust that solution. Have KBJI going down to
MVFR but kept the rest VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR