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000
FXUS63 KFGF 050544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS. STILL SEEM ON TRACK
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND NOT TOO MANY PLACES ARE
REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PULLS AWAY FROM
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE PERIODS AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY POOR UNDER
THE COLD POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE
ZERO SCT TO BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE DVL BSN.
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS A FEW METARS HAVE SOME PERIODIC
REDUCED VSBYS DOWN TO 3SM IN A FEW LOCALES. EXPECT THE SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS POSSIBLY THE LAST OF THE
TRUE WINTERTIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10F TO 20F BELOW WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25F TO 40F BELOW BY MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN WINDS SET UP TEMP FALL MAY
STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE ACROSS THE DVL BSN OVERNIGHT.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS INCREASE TEMPS FROM
-20C TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE MN PINES TO 20S IN DVL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WRT TO POPS AND TEMPS. EC BRINGS THE
WAVE THROUGH THE FA SOONER...DURING THE DAY GIVING MORE CLOUDS AND
EARLIER POPS...THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE GEM IN-BETWEEN. EC
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW AS WARMEST LAYER REMAINS AT THE
SFC WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. NAM IS
WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING TO 3C IN E ND BY 00Z SAT.
NONETHELESS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POP WITH AN ALL SNOW PTYPE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY NW). THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE ABOUT SNOWMELT ISSUES SUCH AS FOG/CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT FAR OUT PREDICTABILITY IS
QUITE LOW AND THE MODEL BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR