Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232243 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
543 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Increased pops in the south over the next hour or so as a cluster
of thunderstorms formed in the Fargo-Fergus Falls area over the
past half hour. The RAP seems to be doing fairly well with
placement of a small area of MUCAPE and moderate mid level lapse
rates coinciding with these. With 0C to -20C layer being so low,
most thunderstorms with relatively frequent lightning are
maintaining enough strength to produce brief small hail and gusts
up to 25 mph. Expect these storms to move northeast out of the
area in the next hour and any remaining storms to begin to weaken
as instability weakens and sfc front moves out.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Rain chances will be the primary challenge early in the short
term followed by temperatures. High resolution model guidance in
good agreement with current rain band trend associated with
impressive mid level f-gen forcing across the northern fa. F-gen
forcing gradually weakens and shifts east through the early
evening. Also drier air which has limited northward progresses of
current rain band air will be pushing southward helping to dry out
rain band. Have added isold T into early evening with narrow band
of convection on southern flank of clearing over SE ND in area of
favorable lapse rates and elevated boundary although elevated
instability and cape minimal. Global models have all pcpn ending
across the FA close to midnight. As drier air pushes south
overnight coolest temperatures will be across the NW-N with the
southeast half holding a few degrees either side of freezing.

Friday looks dry and a bit cooler as high pressure noses into the
fa. How much solar off sets cold advection will hinge on cloud
cover and with some uncertainty held close to inherited

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A fairly quiet long term period is expected with a dry Saturday
followed by an upper wave moving across the north, as split-flow
keeps the primary weather drivers across the southern CONUS with an
upper low transiting the southern plains.  Models are indicating a
chance for a wintry mix of precipitation early Sunday morning
turning to all rain by Sunday afternoon, with POPs mainly along the
international border.  Latest guidance indicates the biggest impacts
due to light ice accumulations, although minimal, would be vcnty of
the Turtle Mountains.

Monday through early Wednesday will become dry with daytime highs
nearing the 50 deg mark for much of the area.  Low POPs then return
for the second half of the week, mainly west of the valley Wed and
across west central MN on Thu aftn.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

General VFR conditions with ongoing -ra event. Later this evening
guidance indicating lowering cigs and followed however kept CIGS
in MVFR ranges. Uncertainty continues on fog potential but quite a
bit of guidance hinting at some potential over the DVL basin so
put in some light fog there.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.