Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

No changes at this update.

UPDATE Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Upper level low over northeast MAN will move southeast overnight
while upper level ridge over ALTA/SASK will build. Cooler/drier
air will move into the area overnight. Low level convergence
occurring just south of the area and will shift south tonight.
Storms were occurring along convergence zone. Tweaked low temp and
winds down a bit for tonight. Removed pops in the far south.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Some thunderstorms were developing over northeast SD. Storm were
moving to the east southeast. Expect storms to stay south of the
area. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough moving east
across the MAN/ND/MN border. Some ridge building was occurring over
eastern SD with short wave over eastern CO. Tweaked temps,
dewpoints, pops and wind for the evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

cold front through all but far southeastern fcst area at 20z.
Nothing has formed along it yet though starting to see a few
building TCU on visble sat pic from nr Longville in Cass county MN
into central Ottertail county. West wind at Fergus Falls at 20z
and southwest wind at Wadena. So likely only 2 hours or so of time
left before any chance exits our area. Drier air working in slowly
but surely form the northwest. This drier airmass will be over our
area tonight into Tuesday with much calmer weather. Soundings show
limited moisture avbl for cumulus Tuesday and upstream shows clear
sky in Saskatchewan and western Manitoba under high so full sun on
Tuesday. Temps a few degrees cooler than today but mainly because
starting out a bit cooler in the morning. I did go with patchy fog
overnight in far southeastern fcst area to match neighboring wfos
and this area will see the drier air the latest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High pressure ridge to drift over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with dry weather. Some warm advection mid level clouds
over wrn or cntrl ND late Tues night or Wednesday but think any
precip chance will stay west of our fcst area. A bit warmer on
Thursday as flow becomes southerly.

Thursday night through Monday...

Main challenge through the long term will be the return of
precipitation chances Friday night and lingering throughout the

Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central CONUS
throughout the day on Friday. Should be one last nice day with
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures around normal or just
barely above (low 80s valley westward and mid to upper 70s in the

Heading into the weekend, surface low pressure across the northern
Rockies will deepen and begin to propagate towards the Dakotas.
Additionally, an upper trough will be nearing the area with multiple
waves moving around the base of the trough. These features will
allow precipitation chances to linger across the forecast area for
much of the weekend. The GFS continues to be a little faster with
QPF entering western portions of the region by Friday night with the
ECMWF holding off until a cold front moves through on Saturday.
Therefore, highest PoPs of the period (around 50 percent) look like
a good compromise for Saturday afternoon and lingering into Sunday
as the front slowly moves through.

Temperatures through Saturday will be fairly seasonable with highs
right around the 80 degree mark. Following the cold frontal passage,
things will cool down for Sunday (low to mid 70s) and even a little
more on Monday (upper 60s to low 70s).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A mostly clear sky remains across the area with some cirrus
over the far southern zones. Expect cirrus to remain over the
southern zones overnight before moving out Tue morning. Rest of area
will be clear. Some patchy fog may occur over the southeast zones
overnight. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected tonight and Tue.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...riddle
LONG TERM...riddle/lee
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