205
FXUS63 KFGF 111746
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon for portions of southeast North Dakota into
  northwest and west- central Minnesota. Main hazards will be
  gusty winds to 60 mph and hail to the size of ping pong balls.

- Wildfire smoke will degrade air quality behind a cold front
  today, potentially into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Getting some pretty hefty updrafts along the front as it moves
into an area of ML CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Deep layer
bulk shear is minimal except well behind the front where there
is no instability, so think there could be a few pulse ups to
just below severe before coming back down again. Smoke around 1
to 2 miles or even lower visibility continues behind the cold
front, even behind the rain so there doesn`t seem to be much
washing out. Even though the models show the possibility of some
minor improvements to the smoke this afternoon and evening,
will continue to keep messaging going.


UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Some thunderstorms starting to develop just behind the frontal
boundary in the southern Red River Valley. All elevated so far
and not much shear to work with, but will have to keep an eye on
them for lightning as they approach our DSS sites and in case
they become rooted in the boundary layer and intensify. Adjusted
POPs for the current radar and satellite trends. Still quite a
bit of smoke behind the front, so will continue to keep the
mention going.

UPDATE
Issued at 741 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

As upper/mid trough nears central ND, increased forcing for
ascent is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. At its
current trajectory, this activity will cross the Red River late
morning.

This activity is not anticipated to be severe during the
morning hours due to limited surface based instability as well
as low overall shear. Access to better instability is nearby,
however, with dew points still near 70 closer and ahead of cold
front.

It remains unclear whether or not the current, elevated
convection within central ND will overlap with the cold front
and essentially become surface based leading to severe
thunderstorms. Should this occur, there is potential for better
shear to overlap with deep convection, perhaps increasing
coverage/time for strong to severe storms.

Some location differences in severe storm potential also still
exists, with one scenario bringing this chance into southeast
ND/southern RRV impacting locations like the Fargo-Moorhead
metro, or if potential shifts deeper into Minnesota before
robust thunderstorm development occurs omitting southeast
ND/southern RRV from severe potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...Synopsis...

Well developed upper/mid level trough is easily viewable on
water vapor imagery migrating through MT and southern SK early
this morning. This will provide upper forcing for ascent for
showers and thunderstorms along/near a cold front working its
way east across ND, eventually into MN this afternoon. Some
thunderstorms this afternoon may be severe (more details below).
Behind the cold front, smoke from Canadian wildfires is being
observed, and will degrade air quality through at least today
(more details below).

As the upper/mid trough pushes east into the Upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes, drier air behind the cold front filters
into the region, although there may be some scattered showers
and/or weak thunderstorms near northwest Minnesota Saturday
afternoon.

Northwest flow aloft briefly sets up around Sunday, along with
increased shear. Meager instability and lack of more organized
forcing will preclude messaging of potential strong to severe
storms Sunday afternoon, although if either increases (either
from better moisture return and/or added moisture from
evapotranspiration; subtle impulse aloft to increase forcing),
then this chance increase.

Into next week, most ensembles favor low amplitude upper ridging
into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest between Monday and
Tuesday, offering a chance for warming trend with increasing low
level moisture. This comes ahead of upper troughing extending
out of central Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
mid to late next week. This increases chance for showers and
thunderstorms. There is a signal within ensemble guidance that
hints at potential heavy rainfall via increased EFI
values/probabilities within ECMWF ensemble suite. Increased
instabilty and forcing/kinematics from this trough also
increases the chance for potentially strong to severe
thunderstorms. This is backed up by AI tools like FengWu AI-NWP
forecast, namely on Monday into Tuesday.

Behind this trough, most ensemble guidance shows a much drier
and cooler air mass moving into the region by late next week.


...Severe storm potential this afternoon...

Latest high resolution guidance strongly suggests thunderstorms
to develop along/near a cold front this afternoon within
portions of southeast ND into northwest and west-central MN.
While shear is quite meager within the vicinity of
thunderstorms, rich moisture and increasing daytime temperatures
beneath cooling air mass aloft will aid in moderate to strong
instability. Given the lack of overall shear, quick upscale
growth of thunderstorms are anticipated, aided by forward
momentum of the cold front itself. While shear will be low,
there may be enough of an extension of increased flow aloft from
the incoming trough to help transfer toward the surface of
eventual MCS, also aided by cold pool organization. Thus, gusts
to 60 mph will be possible from this activity. There will still
be a short timeframe where thunderstorms initially in their
semi-discrete mode shortly after initial development will be
capable of hail to the size of ping pong balls given the
instability that will be in place.

...Degraded air quality today, potentially into this weekend...

Surface observations behind the cold front early this morning
show wildfire smoke reducing visibility less than 2 miles and
AQI values into the "unhealthy" category. This lends confidence
that smoke will infiltrate the area behind the cold front at
least through today.

Guidance also offers another round of near surface smoke behind
another cold front around Sunday. It is unclear to the degree in
which this may degrade air quality.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Thunderstorms developing along the cold front could get close to
KBJI and KFAR early in the period, but the more northern and
western airports should see mostly showers. Along with smoke
down to the surface, which is bringing vis down into the 1 to 2
mile range in many places. Some improvement to visibility is
expected later this afternoon and evening, but additional
Canadian wildfire smoke will be possible later tonight into
tomorrow morning. Some sites will be back up to VFR by mid-day
tomorrow but others will be MVFR due to visibility. Winds that
are gusting to around 20 kts or higher this afternoon will drop
down to around 10 kts, remaining mainly northwesterly and then
westerly.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR