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000
FXUS63 KFGF 150825
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
INITIALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THEN BEGIN TO STRAY SOMEWHAT
WITH STRONGER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PROPAGATE SE TODAY. SO FAR
SNOW BAND SETTING UP WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DO NOT HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SNOW WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE FAR SW FA.
BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE SW.
COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF HOWEVER WITH COLD COLUMN IN PLACE
TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BLO AVERAGE. STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE
ON HOW CURRENT SNOW COVER OR LACK OF WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH
SOLAR.

SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER MINNESOTA TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION MAY HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE
WEST HOWEVER WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY COLDER FROM W TO E WITH
MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE REACHING AROUND 10 BELOW.

WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY. UPPER
JET MAXIMA LOOKS TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND MODELS NOW FARTHER NORTH
WITH DEVELOPING BAND OF PCPN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

COULD INITIALLY SEE A PCPN MIX BUT BY THE TIME PCPN BAND MOVES
INTO MN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WITH CONTINUED WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD.

STRONGER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY AND INTO LATER PERIODS.
MIXED BAG OF PCPN POSSIBLE MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES. COLUMN
GRADUALLY COOLS MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SPLIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE US WEST COAST AND EASTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WHICH RETROGRADES TO AK. THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND THE
ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

WILL KEEP YESTERDAY POPS FOR FRI.

NO CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TUE AND WED. ONE TO THREE DEGREES HIGHER FOR
THU AND TWO DEGREES HIGHER IN THE NORTH AND TWO DEGREES LOWER IN THE
SOUTH FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO 11 TO 20 HUNDRED FT. LOWER CLOUDS NOT
SEEN ON FOG LOOP WITH HIGHER CLOUDS MASKING LOWER DECK. EXPECT LOWER
CLOUD DECK TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHERN MAN AND APPEAR
TO THIN OUT. CIGS ARE AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT IN SOUTHERN MAN. EXPECT
HIGHER DECK TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES