Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 120400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Issued at 958 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Fog loop indicated clouds developing and moving south/southeast
along the Red River in the northern valley north into MAN. Patchy
clouds also developing over southwestern MAN. Will increase clouds
for the rest of the evening...mostly ND side. Will leave low temp
as is. Tweaked sky for the next few hours. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Cold air continues to dump into the region as enhanced IR
loop shows. Loop also indicated where warm advection
commences and where low clouds were located over southeast
SASK and adjacent parts of southwest MAN. Warm advection
expected to move in from the northwest tonight. Lowered
temps tonight with cold advection occurring early.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Expect clearing skies and steadily diminishing winds during the
evening and overnight periods as surface high pressure transits
the area... in the wake of a departing Alberta Clipper system.
Radiative cooling and light winds will allow overnight low
temperatures to drop into the low single digits to near zero range
over the freshened snowpack of northcentral MN and into the lower
teens over relatively snow-free eastern ND.

On Tuesday... the next clipper system in our persistent northwest
flow pattern will begin its approach from southwest Manitoba.
Expect increasing clouds and a developing light southwest wind
throughout the day. High temperatures should range from the upper
teens near Lake of the Woods to the middle 30s near the South
Dakota border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Tuesday night into Wednesday... The train of clippers continue with
more impacts on Tuesday night. There is some warmer air aloft that
could lead to areas of freezing drizzle in northwest Minnesota and
sleet southeast North Dakota. Also seeing some rain in SREF precip
types to support the freezing drizzle chances. Still not a strong
warm layer aloft so it is only a slight chance at this point. As the
clipper moves southeast during the day on Wednesday precipitation
chances move out of North Dakota and remain in northwest Minnesota.
There could still be some freezing drizzle on Wednesday but it
should all transition to snow as the day advances.

Wednesday night into Saturday night... The next clipper approaches
on Wednesday night bringing with it chances for light snow. Overall
snow amounts will be light and some elevated winds are likely. The
next clipper late Friday into Saturday looks will have some more
moisture associated with it therefore better chances for snow
accumulation. Model guidance seems all seems to point to this system
around this time but disagrees in the timing and strength of this
clipper. GEFS plumes have a wide range of solutions at this point
with the operational GFS near the GEFS mean. So while there is a
fair amount of confidence in a snow forecast the timing and amount
is still uncertain.

Sunday and Monday... Yet another clipper looks to be approaching
late Sunday into Monday. The path of this clipper though looks to
stay to our north in Canada based on current model guidance. The
ECMWF does have a stronger low than the GFS and therefore brings
more precipitation down into North Dakota and Minnesota.

Temperatures during this period will be above normal with highs in
the 20s and 30s across eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota,
and west central Minnesota. Normal highs this time of year are in
the upper 10s into 20s for this period in mid December.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions were across much of the area. Some MVFR cigs were
located over parts of the eastern zones. Fog loop indicated an
area of clouds from near Waskish MN to PKD. Cloud area was moving
to the southeast. Expect VFR conditions for this evening. Expect a
band of MVFR cigs in the western Dakotas to shift east overnight
and Tue.




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