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000
FXUS63 KFGF 212016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERACHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MVFR FOR BJI WITH SLOWLY ERODING 1500FT DECK. ELSEWHERE VFR FOR THE
AFTN THEN SVR SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING IMPACTING DVL AROUND 23-01Z GFK AND FAR 01-03Z AND TVF BJI
BY 02-04Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK